California High Speed Rail Thread

[BrownTown]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

I saw that. Nov 6 was a very good day for CHSR.

In the short term maybe, but it's the liberal NIMBYs in San Fran and LA that will end up killing it, not someone from the central valley.

[Busy Bee]

Here you go again with your liberals this liberals that nonsense.

[BrownTown]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

Here you go again with your liberals this liberals that nonsense.

Call it what you want, but any sane person knows the Central Valley opposition isn't what's going to kill off CAHSR, it will be the wealthy liberal NIMBYs around LA and San Francisco. I'd be more than willing to put my money where my mouth is, but this project is so slow I'll be retired before it finally dies for good.

[Busy Bee]

Nothing is going to "kill off" California HSR. I'd tell you to have some faith or something, but it's unlikely that would work for you considering I'm fairly confident you're actually rooting for it's failure.

[Sun Belt]

I recently read that the total cost may have jumped to about $88 billion, as the Southern California portion estimate has potentially increased by 50% since February and jumped by about $11 billion more. The total cost estimate is now 4x the state and federal funding available to finish the project.

-----

Palmdale to Burbank is now estimated over $20 billion, Burbank to L.A. - $3.55 billion, L.A. to Anaheim - $4.8 billion
*these numbers do not include the 15-20% inflation estimate that will increase these figures by the time construction is completed.

[Busy Bee]

Well we are two years away from the country leaving this twilight zone period of darkness and being led by a Democratic administration and Congress again, so I fully expect that a massive infrastructure bill that will take a big bite out of that figure is highly likely.

[SIGSEGV]

Of course they don't include inflation because that wouldn't make sense.

[k1052]

Originally Posted by BrownTown

Call it what you want, but any sane person knows the Central Valley opposition isn't what's going to kill off CAHSR, it will be the wealthy liberal NIMBYs around LA and San Francisco. I'd be more than willing to put my money where my mouth is, but this project is so slow I'll be retired before it finally dies for good.

The peninsula challenges are basically over, Caltrain is doing electrification work. SF end of this is locked in. Pacheco is going to cost a mint but it will be done.

I'd say the only real at risk segment is Bakersfield to Burbank.

[Busy Bee]

^And the authority chose the wisest routing. The SR14 alternative breaks up the lengthiest tunnels into more manageable segments with as much at grade and aerial as possible.

[Car(e)-Free LA]

Originally Posted by k1052

The peninsula challenges are basically over, Caltrain is doing electrification work. SF end of this is locked in. Pacheco is going to cost a mint but it will be done.

I'd say the only real at risk segment is Bakersfield to Burbank.

Or there's always Altamont!!!

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

I recently read that the total cost may have jumped to about $88 billion, as the Southern California portion estimate has potentially increased by 50% since February and jumped by about $11 billion more. The total cost estimate is now 4x the state and federal funding available to finish the project.

-----

Palmdale to Burbank is now estimated over $20 billion, Burbank to L.A. - $3.55 billion, L.A. to Anaheim - $4.8 billion
*these numbers do not include the 15-20% inflation estimate that will increase these figures by the time construction is completed.

$88 billion includes both Phase 2's -- the spur to Sacramento and the routing to Riverside and San Diego, which is actually a prep for a line to Phoenix. It also includes the cost of the trains necessary to run to Sacramento and to San Diego.

So please deduct $20+ billion from whatever inflammatory figure Fox News throws out there.

[Sun Belt]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

$88 billion includes both Phase 2's -- the spur to Sacramento and the routing to Riverside and San Diego, which is actually a prep for a line to Phoenix. It also includes the cost of the trains necessary to run to Sacramento and to San Diego.

So please deduct $20+ billion from whatever inflammatory figure Fox News throws out there.

That's not what the article from the L.A. Times said.

[BrownTown]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

Nothing is going to "kill off" California HSR. I'd tell you to have some faith or something, but it's unlikely that would work for you considering I'm fairly confident you're actually rooting for it's failure.

HSR is already dead, i just want people to realize it ASAP so we can stop wasting money on it that could be used for more sensible transit projects.

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

Well we are two years away from the country leaving this twilight zone period of darkness and being led by a Democratic administration and Congress again, so I fully expect that a massive infrastructure bill that will take a big bite out of that figure is highly likely.

Oh, so that's the plan? Get the feds to bail this boondoggle out? Guess that's always a possibility.

Originally Posted by k1052

The peninsula challenges are basically over, Caltrain is doing electrification work. SF end of this is locked in. Pacheco is going to cost a mint but it will be done.

I'd say the only real at risk segment is Bakersfield to Burbank.

Oh, trust me, they'll be far more challenges as the schedule and budget balloon out of control. We're already a decade in and not even started any of the difficult construction yet. Just going to get a line to nowhere.

[Sun Belt]

The plan is to slowwwwwlllllyyyyy leak out cost overruns with the hope that voters don't notice it.

How do people not see this? We already have a history of it, and it continues to this day and will likely continue in the future.

Or do people actually think that one day, we will hear: "CAHSR found a new route resulting in $25 billion less, getting it close, but no where near the original estimate that voters approved."

[Busy Bee]

Where did the other CA HSR discussion thread go that was opened specifically for all the bellyaching doubters?

[Sun Belt]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

Where did the other CA HSR discussion thread go that was opened specifically for all the bellyaching doubters?

I would place blame on the L.A. Times for openly publishing budgets and costs overruns. Maybe they're lying though?

[Busy Bee]

Would they have equal indignation at routine cost overruns of highway infrastructure?

[northbay]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

Where did the other CA HSR discussion thread go that was opened specifically for all the bellyaching doubters?

Seriously! If people aren’t a fan of this project, that’s fine, but please don’t troll this thread.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

That's not what the article from the L.A. Times said.

Here is the article:
http://www.latimes.com/local/califor...115-story.html

What is the estimate for the IOS? For Phase 1? We never hear that -- only the total Phase 1 & 2 figure, which no doubt will approach $100 billion in capital costs (including startup labor), but the success of Phase 1 is in no way contingent upon construction of either the Sacramento line or the blended service to San Diego via Riverside.

Why does the LA Times hate transit and high speed rail? Because automobile dealers are its largest advertisers.

The main issue is that the HSR board overspent on some central valley contracts because of the time limit imposed by the 2010 and 2011 federal grants. That is not "California" money that has been wasted, but rather federal funds. So it's unclear as to why the haters are so upset.

As mentioned in the audit, in 2011 CAHSR received $900 million above the $2.5 billion federal stimulus it received in 2010. Why? Because Tea Partiers Rick Scott and John Kasich rejected the federal rail grants their states had received under their respective Democrat predecessors. So CAHSR's overruns in the Central Valley were largely covered by that $900 million windfall.

Again, "California" money has not been wasted, and the "waste" would not have happened at all if not for the 2010 stimulus award.

Also, the audit as well as the LA Times article scold CAHSR for having "exhausted" all cost-saving measures with blended service. So they're upset...that the board decided to take a prudent cost-saving route rather than overspend for a minor improvement in HSR service.

That's what bullies do -- criticize subordinates for good work. The Republican Party is, by definition, a giant bully.

[BrownTown]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

Where did the other CA HSR discussion thread go that was opened specifically for all the bellyaching doubters?

You say that like we're just shooting from the hip here instead of looking at years of MASSIVE cost overruns, quality reductions and delays. CAHSR is so bad that it makes the nuclear construction projects I follow look good by comparison.

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

Would they have equal indignation at routine cost overruns of highway infrastructure?

Of course people would. The Big Dig is pretty much synonymous with infrastructure boondoggles. But the sort of cost overruns on CAHSR aren't "routine". This isn't a 20% overrun, it's already more like 200% and we haven't really even started major construction yet.

Originally Posted by northbay

Seriously! If people aren’t a fan of this project, that’s fine, but please don’t troll this thread.

The only people who are trolling are the ones with their heads in the sand refusing to acknowledge how much of a boondoggle this project has become.