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  #41  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2015, 9:51 PM
ThePhun1 ThePhun1 is offline
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Originally Posted by CIA View Post
cool story, bro

Or it could be that NYC has plenty of job opportunities that are attracting folks from around the country.

Wall Street (finance/accounting)
Broadway (performing arts/drama)
Madison Avenue (media/advertising)
Park Avenue (fashion/retail merchandising)
Or it could be that New York is, well, New York and there's no place like it anywhere, not even London.
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  #42  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2015, 9:51 PM
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I can't think of one person in fashion or retail merchandising who works on Park Avenue. And I know a lot of people in those industries.

The only people I know who work on Park are at JPM (270/277) or at hedge funds.

It's also been decades since the NYC advertising industry was centered on Madison Avenue.
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  #43  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2015, 9:54 PM
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Originally Posted by 10023 View Post
I can't think of one person in fashion or retail merchandising who works on Park Avenue. And I know a lot of people in those industries.

The only people I know who work on Park are at JPM (270/277) or at hedge funds.

It's also been decades since the NYC advertising industry was centered on Madison Avenue.
This is true. I'm not sure why I put Park as an example. I'm thinking of somewhere else.
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  #44  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2015, 9:56 PM
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Originally Posted by ThePhun1 View Post
Or it could be that New York is, well, New York and there's no place like it anywhere, not even London.
Although that are a lot of trust fund babies, the majority of folks that relocate to New York is primarily for employment reasons (new job, promotion, better opportunities, etc). At least, everyone I know.
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  #45  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2015, 10:25 PM
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look across the country, central cities all over the place are seeing positive gains. its not just grads moving downtown, its suburbanites downsizing and retirees too. downtown is no longer the place where the food is slop (gold star for the movie reference). but no, I don't think the large metros will be missing out on any growth. if anything, they are attracting grads from our country and other countries too.
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  #46  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2015, 10:55 PM
mrnyc mrnyc is offline
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Good stories....I myself can relate to a lot of that.

My point is that more of those same people, if they were in their early 20s now (vs 10-15 years ago), might choose not to take the plunge. And the ones that did might choose to leave sooner, given how two things seem to be changing: (1) NYC housing and costs getting even crazier, even relative to wages, and (2) the slowly increasing relative attractiveness of smaller cities.

It's also worth pointing out that the housing crunch in NYC means a typical young recent grad-type's apartment will be smaller, older, grungier, smaller, require more roommates, smaller, further away from where you work and play, and did I mention smaller? And cost of living means less money to enjoy the place you moved to. So these aren't just numbers, these are things that affect the stories their NYC friends will tell them about what it's really like to live there, thus affecting whether they choose to take the plunge.

It's true that some of them will just get replaced by wealthy Eurotrash trust-fund kids from abroad, but then you'd still see a change in the smaller American cities in terms of more young people sticking around, since the people replacing them in NYC aren't coming from there.

I'll admit I'm a little biased here in that I hope my theory is right. It's easier to root for Nashville or Pittsburgh to become cooler, than it is to root for NYC to become (even) cooler.

i think you are right on point. i wonder if this is somehow quantifiable? it would have to be a sum of a number of factors no doubt. but the more other cities offer the same types of urban amenities, like upping the game downtown, varied living options, the arts, improved transit, etc., etc., the less attractive the coasts become.

the wildcard factor is jobs. no matter what kind of bargain your apt or house is, you still gotta work. i wish more bright young people would go into city and regional government service or careers and help make the kinds of smart changes that are needed.
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  #47  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2015, 11:59 PM
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Much of cities' successes are about drawing people to the core vs. the suburbs. Every city has core neighborhoods that are helping with that.

But I also buy that some cities are doing better at retaining their region's young adults, often due to good reasons like culture (in a broad sense), job opportunities, lifestyle, etc.

Can the top cities lose some of their edge with young adults? Of course. It's possible for 30-somethings to make a city expensive enough that it starts falling among the 20-somethings, for starters.
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  #48  
Old Posted Jun 25, 2015, 12:58 AM
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I agree it is all about jobs, what cities can offer a decent urban experience and have a plethora of 60k per year and up jobs? Pittsburgh, Nashville, Cleveland, etc. Speaking from my experience of life in Brooklyn for 2 years I loved it but just couldn't find solid employment while there so I took off on a wild card business opportunity in Tbilisi Rep. of Georgia, when that didn't work out I returned to San Diego.

SD is an outlier in that it has tons of amenities of a large coastal city and is of course a desirable place but the jobs here do not pay very well. I think you have some Seattle envy here with an example of a West Coast city of similar size getting tons of tech jobs in the inner core and the construction boom that comes with it. San Diego is not a corporate city at all only 2 Fortune 500's for a metro of 3.8 million. The city is really trying to get a tech/start up cluster going downtown but it is taking some time UCSD may be opening up a research center there and it could be a catalyst. Also synergy with Tijuana and the convenient opportunity to "near shore" is also being pushed here as a way to spark growth.
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  #49  
Old Posted Jun 25, 2015, 1:02 AM
ThePhun1 ThePhun1 is offline
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Originally Posted by CIA View Post
Although that are a lot of trust fund babies, the majority of folks that relocate to New York is primarily for employment reasons (new job, promotion, better opportunities, etc). At least, everyone I know.
Then why has Manhattan real estate skyrocketed so much that even the multi-generational families have been priced out?
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  #50  
Old Posted Jun 25, 2015, 1:41 AM
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Then why has Manhattan real estate skyrocketed so much that even the multi-generational families have been priced out?
Are you serious right now? In all five boroughs, especially in the city and Brooklyn, real estate has skyrocketed. In its simplest turns, demand has outpaced supply and job growth remains strong. Most people in Manhattan do work for a living. Not everyone is a wealthy oligarch that uses Manhattan as a their personal playground.

The concept you describe, as families that have been living in a location for generations are forced out do to increasing rent, is called gentrification. It isn't specific to Manhattan.
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  #51  
Old Posted Jun 25, 2015, 3:20 AM
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Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
His disgust at the realization he was surrounded by the idle rich convinced him that he needed to GTFO. And he did.
This perfectly describes much of Lower Manhattan and North Brooklyn.

I get very disheartened by what I see happening in NYC. Yes, it's always been expensive, but the extent to which foreigners are buying up real estate here really truly is making it difficult for the people who are actually trying to work here.

A good friend of mine bought an apartment in a newish building in Chelsea last year. There are 8 units on his floor and he is the ONLY full time resident. He told me his doorman literally sits around all day pawning for somebody to come home so he can have a few minutes of conversation before losing his mind.

It wasn't always that way. The upside is that it helping with reinvestment in outlying neighborhoods. The downside is that these neighborhoods are filling up with people who make solid 6 figure incomes and anywhere else would make enough to live very close to the core...that gets tiresome after a while. I can only imagine the tumult for people who make less.

This is all good for my first love, however: Philadelphia.
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  #52  
Old Posted Jun 25, 2015, 3:24 AM
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Originally Posted by 10023 View Post
I can't think of one person in fashion or retail merchandising who works on Park Avenue. And I know a lot of people in those industries.

The only people I know who work on Park are at JPM (270/277) or at hedge funds.

It's also been decades since the NYC advertising industry was centered on Madison Avenue.
Kate Spade corporate offices are at 2 Park Avenue.

They have about 4 floors and 300+ employees there.
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  #53  
Old Posted Jun 25, 2015, 3:31 AM
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After living in SF (after insisting that's where I needed to transfer to during college and spend the rest of my life) for over 5 years, I'm finally able to say that I'm pretty over it. The high cost of living (and everything) combined with type of accommodations I have to settle for, in addition to horrible traffic and creature comforts you can have in other cities made more difficult (also the inability to ever save, in particular for a house)....I'm leaving the Bay Area as of September. I always warn people now who want to move here...have a very well paying job lined up and ideally a bf/gf to live with or else it's going to a big reduction in quality of life.

Moving to Seattle...still a pricey city, but nothing like here. And basically has all of the things I love about the Bay Area just on a smaller scale. I strongly considered Austin or Portland. I'll always love big cities, but I think I have a much more realistic idea of what it means to live in a global alpha city than I did before I moved here to experience it. For example, I have now ZERO desire to ever live in NYC unless I'm pulling in $300,000+. To me, it' just not worth it at 28. I want a more well-rounded, comfortable life with a bit more space yet access to urban amenities.

Priorities you think will never change, definitely do for so many of us
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  #54  
Old Posted Jun 25, 2015, 3:32 AM
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Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown View Post
This perfectly describes much of Lower Manhattan and North Brooklyn.

I get very disheartened by what I see happening in NYC. Yes, it's always been expensive, but the extent to which foreigners are buying up real estate here really truly is making it difficult for the people who are actually trying to work here.

A good friend of mine bought an apartment in a newish building in Chelsea last year. There are 8 units on his floor and he is the ONLY full time resident. He told me his doorman literally sits around all day pawning for somebody to come home so he can have a few minutes of conversation before losing his mind.

It wasn't always that way. The upside is that it helping with reinvestment in outlying neighborhoods. The downside is that these neighborhoods are filling up with people who make solid 6 figure incomes and anywhere else would make enough to live very close to the core...that gets tiresome after a while. I can only imagine the tumult for people who make less.
^^^ This is exactly what I'm getting at, both in NY and SF. Sure, both places have always been "expensive", but this is one thing you can't point to and say "it's always been like that".

Again, the prediction is not that NYC and SF will experience some kind of crash, or that landlords there won't have people to rent to, or that the real estate market won't keep going about its merry way. It's that the demographics will change. It's hard to imagine that what 3rd&Brown describes above won't have some impact if it's happening a lot.
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  #55  
Old Posted Jun 25, 2015, 3:41 AM
3rd&Brown 3rd&Brown is offline
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Originally Posted by rs913 View Post
^^^ This is exactly what I'm getting at, both in NY and SF. Sure, both places have always been "expensive", but this is one thing you can't point to and say "it's always been like that".

Again, the prediction is not that NYC and SF will experience some kind of crash, or that landlords there won't have people to rent to, or that the real estate market won't keep going about its merry way. It's that the demographics will change. It's hard to imagine that what 3rd&Brown describes above won't have some impact if it's happening a lot.
It's already having an impact. A relatively respected large non-profit that had been in NYC for almost 200 years just announced it's moving its headquarters to Philadelphia because it cannot afford to pay its employees what they would need to make to live quality lives in NYC.

In their press release, they said that not only could their employees live comfortably in Philadelphia, but that very many would be able to live very near work and walk/bike/take (quick) public transit to work...a situation that had become untenable in NYC with most of their employees commuting from the far reaches of the city.

They made it about the QOL for employees.

From the article:

"In an interview Tuesday, American Bible Society CEO Roy Peterson said that while it was a "real heart-wrenching decision to leave New York," it was the right decision for his staff.

Living in New York on a nonprofit salary is tough, he said.

"People can afford to live here [in Philadelphia], it's walkable, there's public transportation," Peterson said. "Our staff commutes an hour or two . . . from Long Island, the Bronx."

http://articles.philly.com/2015-01-2...-city-peterson
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  #56  
Old Posted Jun 25, 2015, 7:21 AM
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Originally Posted by rs913 View Post
^^^ This is exactly what I'm getting at, both in NY and SF. Sure, both places have always been "expensive", but this is one thing you can't point to and say "it's always been like that".

Again, the prediction is not that NYC and SF will experience some kind of crash, or that landlords there won't have people to rent to, or that the real estate market won't keep going about its merry way. It's that the demographics will change. It's hard to imagine that what 3rd&Brown describes above won't have some impact if it's happening a lot.
Well it really wasn't all that long ago that you could live dirt cheap in places like Chelsea. A lot of bohemian types did just that for much of the 20th century. The same was true with parts of San Francisco. Both places might be "expensive" by, say, Midwestern standards, but you didn't have to be making a lot to afford a decent living in either city. Until very recently.

I know that the tech sector is currently an unsustainably outsize percentage of the Bay Area's economy, and "first-generation" tech companies have largely started to move towards commoditization (meaning their part of the sector isn't getting larger; first-generation companies tend to be the ones specializing in hardware and "traditional" software) even as "second-generation" (Internet- and cloud-based) ones continue to expand. The housing market there seems to be driven largely by the tech sector's attractiveness -- it's the best field to get into nowadays if you want a decent salary but your networking skills are shit.

As far as New York goes, it seems it's the massive wealth driving an outsize housing market.
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  #57  
Old Posted Jun 25, 2015, 8:50 AM
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NYC will continue to be #1, but at the rate its going, it will be transformed into a boutique museum of a city like Paris. Just my take on things.

the last few times i have been in paris, i have been struck by the opposite feeling. new york feels more museum-like than paris in most areas. paris seethes and its spirit is joined to the middle east in a leaky way, in a bidirectional way. paris has more than a shiver of instability to it.

when paris burns, its public intellectuals poke at the issues, satirizing and joking and complaining. they advance opposing views and fight. sometimes they get shot.

who would shoot jon stewart? it's anodyne. and if he isn't the guy, who is the guy? who is new york's trickster figure?

louis ck? he plays with words but ultimately thinks the approved thoughts on all the big america issues, the ones you really get in trouble for mocking.

who in new york's mainstream cultural life would find a way to cackle at ferguson, at isis?

even vanity fair's caitlyn jenner cover somehow escaped a vicious high-profile parody, and it was basically a double dog dare on the part of the media class.

new yorkers in 2015 are publicly pious, with a few shock jocks maybe scattered about downstairs for the plumber to giggle at.

the conversation that is paris is very bitter and edgy and unsettled by comparison.

Last edited by kool maudit; Jun 25, 2015 at 9:05 AM.
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  #58  
Old Posted Jun 25, 2015, 9:20 AM
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^ I don't know that Paris' particularly acute North African /Muslim problem is what he was referring to.

I think it's very noticeable how much "nicer" New York has become (in a particular sense of the word) in the 10+ years since I moved there. For a person with the means it's great. Shitty fast food places are being replaced with good coffee shops, really good restaurants opening everywhere, it's even a bit cleaner. It's a shame when some of the cooler places die out because they can't afford the rent, but those don't make up a majority of the city. It's not a bad thing when old, tired, mediocre retail and restaurants get gentrified.

To some people this will seem "museum-like" but it's not. Paris is not either... both cities are too crowded. The only thing that makes cities feel dead like this is huge numbers of absentee owners (who also aren't renting their properties). You see this in areas like Belgravia in London, or in parts of Knightsbridge before the Arabs come back for the summer. But I also think NYC will largely be saved from this, because these people are buying mostly in new luxury towers, many of which are in neighborhoods that were office/tourist dead zones anyway. West 57th hasn't been a "neighborhood" since the interwar years.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePhun1 View Post
Then why has Manhattan real estate skyrocketed so much that even the multi-generational families have been priced out?
Working class families that have been in Manhattan for generations don't necessarily have the skills to fill higher paying jobs.

Last edited by 10023; Jun 25, 2015 at 9:31 AM.
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  #59  
Old Posted Jun 25, 2015, 9:36 AM
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^ I don't know that Paris' particularly acute North African /Muslim problem is what he was referring to
no, i know, but it's a pretty big part of paris' dialogue and feel right now. the city's profound tie to this big global instability narrative/circumstance and the freewheeling nature of its mainstream comment on such gives the place a bit of a knife-edge as soon as you go to a dinner party or something. new york, by contrast, feels like a place where most influential people have or pretend to have pretty similar opinions about divisive things like that.
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  #60  
Old Posted Jun 25, 2015, 10:12 AM
mrnyc mrnyc is offline
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Originally Posted by kool maudit View Post
the last few times i have been in paris, i have been struck by the opposite feeling. new york feels more museum-like than paris in most areas. paris seethes and its spirit is joined to the middle east in a leaky way, in a bidirectional way. paris has more than a shiver of instability to it.

when paris burns, its public intellectuals poke at the issues, satirizing and joking and complaining. they advance opposing views and fight. sometimes they get shot.

who would shoot jon stewart? it's anodyne. and if he isn't the guy, who is the guy? who is new york's trickster figure?

louis ck? he plays with words but ultimately thinks the approved thoughts on all the big america issues, the ones you really get in trouble for mocking.

who in new york's mainstream cultural life would find a way to cackle at ferguson, at isis?

even vanity fair's caitlyn jenner cover somehow escaped a vicious high-profile parody, and it was basically a double dog dare on the part of the media class.

new yorkers in 2015 are publicly pious, with a few shock jocks maybe scattered about downstairs for the plumber to giggle at.

the conversation that is paris is very bitter and edgy and unsettled by comparison.

of course. thats because the muslim problems came more than a decade later in paris than they did to nyc. its contemporary and relevant in paris now, not so in nyc anymore. however, turn the clock back a bit and you get your infamous nyc edginess:

"I have a flight to California,” Gilbert Gottfried ­announced at a Friars Club roast of Hugh Hefner just weeks after 9/11. “I can’t get a direct flight—they said they have to stop at the Empire State Building first.”

“Too soon!” shouted someone in the audience.
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