City Murder Rates

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Basically all major crimes in NYC are down this year relative to 2023. On public transit too.

https://www.nyc.gov/site/nypd/news/p...-february-2024

Despite the alt-right rhetoric, NYC and the MTA are on-course to have one of the lowest crime years in recorded history. It is amazing how social media and alt news sources have completely scrambled reality, on the economy, immigration, crime, Ukraine and a host of topics. It's like we're back in the Dark Ages.

We might not be in the dark ages but we're certainly at the end of the Enlightenment.

[Smuttynose1]

Really impressive broad-based progress on this across the country. The following cities aren’t cherry-picked, they just tend to be the ones where this information is most accessible and up to date:

Boston
2023 YTD: 11
2024 YTD: 2
Change: -82%

Chicago
2023 YTD: 108
2024 YTD: 95
Change: -12%

Dallas
2023 YTD: 69
2024 YTD: 48
Change: -30%

Kansas City, MO
2023 YTD: 36
2024 YTD: 28
Change: -22%

Milwaukee
2023 YTD: 32
2024 YTD: 23
Change: -28%

Minneapolis
2023 YTD: 13
2024 YTD: 11
Change: -15%

New York City
2023 YTD: 90
2024 YTD: 74
Change: -18%

Philadelphia
2023 YTD: 98
2024 YTD: 63
Change: -36%

San Francisco
2023 YTD: 10
2024 YTD: 6
Change: -40%

Washington, DC
2023 YTD: 52
2024 YTD: 35
Change: -33%

[ilcapo]

Originally Posted by ilcapo

After a very calm November & December, this is what we ended up with. Not bad. There might be a couple more added, but it wont change the rates by much.

Sweden
Estimated total (Rate) <Deadly Shootings>
2021: 113 (1.1) <63>
2022: 118 (1.1) <45>
2023: 115 (1.1) <53>

Stockholm Metro
2021: 41 (1.7)
2022: 39 (1.6) <31>
2023: 42 (1,7) <26>

- Within City limits/Municipality
2021: 22 (2.2)
2022: 17 (1.7) <11>
2023: 18 (1.8) <13>

Gothenburg/Göteborg Municipality
2021: 9 (1.5)
2022: 7 (1.2) <4>
2023: 10 (1.7) <3>

Malmo/Malmö Municipality
2021: 5 (1.4)
2022: 11 (3.1) <5>
2023: 4 (1.1) <1>

The official numbers are in, and we ended up with a total of 121 murders.
Which translates to a rate of 1,15.

Previous years:
2022: 1,11
2021: 1,08
2020: 1,20
2019: 1,08

Also the numbers for Stockholm was a bit higher than my estimation. It ended up at 44. A rate of 1,7.


-------------------

Also some figures from Norway & Denmark

Norway Total: 38 (Rate: 0,7)
Highest number since 2013.

9 out of these occured in the Capital of Oslo. (Rate: 1,0)

Denmark Total: 38 (Rate 0,6).

What is remarkable for Denmark is that all of the murder-cases were solved one way or another.

[mrnyc]

[ilcapo]

I just saw someone used the metric "Murders per square mile" rather than the usual per capita population metric. The point was to show that their city has a high number of murders per 100.000 pop, but since the city was so sprawly it didn't really affect the population the same way as it would in an urban environment.

Is there a point to this way of reasoning?

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by Smuttynose1

Really impressive broad-based progress on this across the country. The following cities aren’t cherry-picked, they just tend to be the ones where this information is most accessible and up to date:

Boston
2023 YTD: 11
2024 YTD: 2
Change: -82%

Chicago
2023 YTD: 108
2024 YTD: 95
Change: -12%

Dallas
2023 YTD: 69
2024 YTD: 48
Change: -30%

Kansas City, MO
2023 YTD: 36
2024 YTD: 28
Change: -22%

Milwaukee
2023 YTD: 32
2024 YTD: 23
Change: -28%

Minneapolis
2023 YTD: 13
2024 YTD: 11
Change: -15%

New York City
2023 YTD: 90
2024 YTD: 74
Change: -18%

Philadelphia
2023 YTD: 98
2024 YTD: 63
Change: -36%

San Francisco
2023 YTD: 10
2024 YTD: 6
Change: -40%

Washington, DC
2023 YTD: 52
2024 YTD: 35
Change: -33%

Now compare them to 2019 numbers.

[homebucket]

San Francisco
2019 YTD: 7
2024 YTD: 6
Change: -14%

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

Now compare them to 2019 numbers.

2023 ended up with lower overall violent crime than 2019, so most of these numbers would be a lot better in 2023 than in 2019.

Also, why compare to 2019? Why not 1819? Any way you slice it, the fact is that violent crime in the U.S. is plummeting, while a prevailing narrative claims the opposite. In the last 50 years, the U.S. hasn't been safer than the present.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...pinion/676365/

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by ilcapo

I just saw someone used the metric "Murders per square mile" rather than the usual per capita population metric. The point was to show that their city has a high number of murders per 100.000 pop, but since the city was so sprawly it didn't really affect the population the same way as it would in an urban environment.

Is there a point to this way of reasoning?

i dk, but i would think a full city murder map would tell you almost anything you want to know at a glance. then if you were unaware you could slice and dice up examing various areas of the city anyway you want to (ses, built environment, population density, etc., etc.).

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Crawford

2023 ended up with lower overall violent crime than 2019, so most of these numbers would be a lot better in 2023 than in 2019.

Also, why compare to 2019? Why not 1819? Any way you slice it, the fact is that violent crime in the U.S. is plummeting, while a prevailing narrative claims the opposite. In the last 50 years, the U.S. hasn't been safer than the present.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...pinion/676365/

I think because 2020-2022 were statistical outliers as far as crime and social instability. 2019 was the last full year where life was "normal"; pre-Covid, pre-George Floyd, pre-economic chaos due to Covid, etc

[mrnyc]

cleveland

good news in the cleve —

most crime way down as of 3/27/24

homicides

2023 = 32
2024 = 19
% chg = -40%

https://www.cleveland19.com/2024/03/...ing-city-data/

[Skoobeatz]

Youngstown (5) as of march 31st

Population 59,000

2023 total (21)
2022 total (24)
2021 total (31)

[Gresto]

Toronto had an uncommonly high number of homicides in March, and is now up to 18 for the year.

[Steely Dan]

Chicago homicides through March:

2024: 103
2023: 121
2022: 126
2021: 139

Source: Chicago Sun-Times


Down 16% from last year.

And down 26% from 2021 .

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

cleveland

good news in the cleve —

most crime way down as of 3/27/24

homicides

2023 = 32
2024 = 19
% chg = -40%

https://www.cleveland19.com/2024/03/...ing-city-data/

Good work Cleveland!!!!

[lextown]

Lexington KY is at 4.

Louisville KY is at 41.

[jtown,man]

As of March 14, Memphis had 55 murders (50 by that time last year). Assaults, car theft, rape, and robbery were down from 2023 though.

[mrnyc]

Homicides Are Plummeting in American Cities

Killings in cities including New York, Philadelphia and San Francisco are falling from their respective pandemic-era increases

By Dan Frosch and Cameron McWhirter
April 14, 2024


more:
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/murder-r...lphia-508b6855

[mja]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

Now compare them to 2019 numbers.

Philly is down something like 13% from 2019.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by mja

Philly is down something like 13% from 2019.

2019 = 97 (on April 17th)
2024 = 81 (on April 17th)

Decrease = 16.5%

At current pace, Philly will end up with +/- 325 Homicides this year compared to 410 in 2023 and 514 in 2022 and 562 in 2021.