City Murder Rates

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

I think there's a bit of a difference between a low-crime, stable city with a strong social safety net and those that were already teetering on the brink of social dysfunction without a pandemic. There's nothing that would cause a city like Montreal to have 100 homicides per month; but conversely, a pandemic, lockdown, economic depression, social upheaval, and heatwave are enough to push a city that already had problems with poverty and violence over the edge.

Cities like Portland and New York had mid-range Canadian-ish (ie comparable to Toronto) homicide rates, and murders and violent crime are soaring there too.

[Handro]

Originally Posted by edale

You don't think police are reacting to the protests against them by taking a more, shall we say, cautious approach? This has been shown to occur time and time again. As I said, I think it might be deliberate to try to demonstrate their value to the general public.

The protests aren't 'triggering' to me. As I said, I participated in them here in Los Angeles. But I'm not going to play dumb and act like the dramatic rise in violence isn't somehow related to protests against the police. Especially when we've seen this exact phenomenon play out time and time again in the past. I understand that the economic crisis could be also contributing, as well as general restlessness and unease among the people. It's not just one factor, but I think it is naive to think the protests don't have something to do with this crime spike.

Another potential cause could be the thousands of inmates that were released in cities across the country due to Covid concerns and, to a lesser extent, activist pressure.

No, I don't think police across the country taking a "hands off approach" is a measurably large reason that murders would be spiking over 200% in places like Chicago year over year. I don't think police as an entity are petulant enough to so thoroughly ignore the basic functions of their jobs to the level it would take to lead to hundreds of additional people getting murdered, just because they want to prove a point to college-aged activists. If it was really a matter of police personally causing murders, it would be way, way more noticeable and not just arm-chair conceptualizing of (mostly right wing) people online.

Here is the crime spike:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ronavirus.html

Originally Posted by Acajack

Cities like Portland and New York had mid-range Canadian-ish (ie comparable to Toronto) homicide rates, and murders and violent crime are soaring there too.

Because those are both American cities, and the American government is not responding the pandemic the same way the Canadian government is.

[dc_denizen]

^ there is no 'american government response. the response varies by state.

[Handro]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

^ there is no 'american government response. the response varies by state.

Exactly.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by edale

If you don't get my point, try reading it again. The explanation you gave is that it got hot in Chicago earlier this year. Which is laughably simple and does nothing to explain the crime spikes in other cities.

It didn't ONLY get hot in Chicago. There was a heatwave across a substantial portion of the country in June. By comparison, the northeast was not much hotter than normal during June. There was a slight uptick in murders in NYC, but it was not necessarily alarming (39 murders in June 2020 vs 30 murders in June 2019). But July on the other hand was much warmer than normal, and July murders in NYC were up quite substantially (54 murders in July 2020 vs 34 in July 2019).

Originally Posted by edale

You preceded that explanation by basically saying "well actually, it's not that bad. Murders are only slightly above the worst murder year in the past 30 years." A remarkably bad take if I've ever seen one.

Is this a semantics argument or do you actually have something useful to say?

[bossabreezes]

Loving the excuses for violence all over this thread. Good work guys.

[wg_flamip]

I'd imagine the pandemic has also caused some interruption to organized crime, which may exacerbate local rivalries and lead to more violence than usual.

[ilcapo]

Originally Posted by Acajack

What do you mean by pending? I know that sometimes police investigate suspicious deaths that could be accidents or suicides, but if that's the case 10 seems to be a pretty high number to have outstanding like that. Especially if the actual number of confirmed homicides is 27.

Nothing is actually officially confirmed by our police until the year is over, so we have to do our own research which makes it a bit tricky.

The pending cases could be people found dead and cause of death is unknown by the time the media reports it. Most of them end up as suicides or accidents.

The "confirmed" are usually when there have been witnesses or somebody has been caught.

There have been demands (mostly from the right wing) that the police should be more transparent in this matter.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by ilcapo

Nothing is actually officially confirmed by our police until the year is over, so we have to do our own research which makes it a bit tricky.

The pending cases could be people found dead and cause of death is unknown by the time the media reports it. Most of them end up as suicides or accidents.

The "confirmed" are usually when there have been witnesses or somebody has been caught.

OK, that's an interesting way of compiling and reporting. Thanks for the explanation!

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Cities like Portland and New York had mid-range Canadian-ish (ie comparable to Toronto) homicide rates, and murders and violent crime are soaring there too.

Portland and New York were safe, but there's still a certain precariousness to it - with less of a social safety net, any disruptions to the carefully balanced social order can cause more of a jolt than it would in a place with a more solid foundation of stability. Worth noting that homicide is up slightly in Toronto as well though.


In any case, trying to pin the rise in murder rates on any one thing depending on one's ideological allegiance is dumb (not directed at you, Acajack, btw). It seems pretty obvious that many factors are playing into it:

• Most young people are out of work and out of school due to COVID, with nowhere to go and nothing to do (particularly important in marginalized communities where after-school programs helped to keep kids away from crime).
• High unemployment and a minimal social safety net to cope with it means people are more desperate, and more likely to therefore commit crimes. Even if minor in nature, an increase in property crimes can lead to a rise murders when they "go wrong".
• COVID-related mental health crisis has people on edge, and behaving more aggressively.
• COVID-related lockdowns and border closures have interrupted the flow of illegal drugs. Gangs have become more desperate and are fighting over a shrinking slice of the pie.
• A large number of prisoners released back on the streets as a result of COVID outbreaks in prisons (obviously a brilliant idea...).
• It's been a hot summer in most of the country. Heatwaves have traditionally coincided with rises in crime, both as a result of more people being outside; and people being more likely to be irritable.
• Rise in gun ownership as a result of fears related to both COVID and BLM protests.
• Anti-police brutality protests tend to cause cops to take more of a hands-off approach - whether as a deliberate act of spite, or as a consequence of not wanting to get in trouble.

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

Originally Posted by edale

Not saying I 100% agree that this national increase in urban violence/homicide is a result of the protests/riots, but what other theory do you have? The economy? Restlessness from quarantine? Crime had been in fairly steep decline basically everywhere for the last several years. Even the normal hotspots like Chicago had started to improve. Now, all of a sudden, it just skyrockets back up to shocking levels?

Crime definitely spiked in Cincinnati for several years following the riot in 2001 after a police shooting of an unarmed teen. The police said they were taking a less aggressive approach, and homicides soared. I was fearful this would be the result when the defund the police movement really took off. And I generally support the movement, went to a couple BLM protests, etc. But I've seen it play out like this before. A lot of well intentioned liberal folks are seriously naive about the levels of violence in this country and what it takes to control it. It's too late to disarm or dissolve the police-- not when there are hundreds of millions of guns floating around. We can't all just sing kum-ba-yah and get along with the aid of some social workers, because this is a deeply violent country. I fear these violent trends will continue for a while, sadly.

Nailed it.

Also, most people in violent neighborhoods don't want defund either. A Newsweek poll put that number at 81% against

[KevinFromTexas]

2020 Austin Metro Murders

| Austin 28 | Travis Co. 34 | Bastrop Co. 1 | Caldwell Co. 2 | Hays Co. 1 | Williamson Co. 4 | Metro 42 |

Causes metrowide
Shooting - 31
Stabbing - 5
Strangled - 0
Suffocation - 0
Throwing (of child) - 0
Beating - 1
Vehicular homicide - 0
Blunt force trauma - 1
Sharp force trauma - 0
Unlisted cause - 5
Domestic terrorism - 0

Austin totals
Downtown - 1
Central Austin - 1
East Austin - 8
North Austin - 3
Northeast Austin - 6
Northwest Austin - 0
South Austin - 5
Southeast Austin - 3
Southwest Austin - 0
West Austin - 1

Victims
Male - 31
Female - 9
Unlisted - 1

| Jan 6 | Feb 6 | Mar 9 | Apr 4 | May 4 | Jun 9 | Jul 5 | Aug 0 | Sep 0 | Oct 0 | Nov 0 | Dec 0 |

-

| Mon 5 | Tue 8 | Wed 4 | Thur 5 | Fri 4 | Sat 8 | Sun 8 |

-

Murder cases

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/crime/4-people-stabbed-in-attack-on-south-congress/?fbclid=IwAR30os7QA-0IUpsC8RxheTAXJFZLOl-57LO51A44-3OB4uD2-0v2DnSCON0 - 1/3 - Austin stabbing

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/one-injured-in-east-austin-shooting/ - 1/11 - Austin shooting

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/police-looking-for-suspect-in-east-austin-stabbing/?fbclid=IwAR2f4m_Is2jKFsQRwsEiJwMUyAlxUREKRTiWk0utxcyHTrQzeQjJcfVg0f8 - 1/17 - Austin stabbing

1 dead - http://www.austintexas.gov/news/homicide-5-0 - 1/19 - Austin blunt force trauma

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/local-news/atcems-reporting-to-possible-east-austin-shooting-someone-possibly-dead/ - 1/20 - Austin shooting

1 dead - http://www.austintexas.gov/news/homicide-4-0 - 1/23 - Austin shooting

1 dead - https://www.statesman.com/news/20200202/2-dead-after-pflugerville-shooting-saturday-night-police-say?template=ampart - 2/1 - Pflugerville shooting

1 dead - http://www.austintexas.gov/news/homicide-6-0 - 2/17 - Austin shooting

1 dead - http://www.austintexas.gov/news/homicide-9-0 - 2/21 - Austin shooting

2 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/crime/police-identify-third-suspect-in-northeast-austin-apartment-shooting/ - 2/25 - Austin shooting

1 dead - https://www.statesman.com/news/20200305/police-arrest-made-in-georgetown-missing-man-case?template=ampart - 2/25 - Georgetown unlisted cause

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/local/williamson-county/round-rock-teen-arrested-in-connection-with-fatal-shooting-of-17-year-old/ - 3/3 - Round Rock shooting

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/crime/homicide-investigation-opened-after-male-victim-shot-dead-in-south-austin/ - 3/13 - Austin shooting

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/crime/teen-shot-and-dropped-off-at-taylor-hospital-declared-dead-on-arrival-suspect-in-custody/ - 3/21 - Taylor shooting

1 dead - http://www.austintexas.gov/news/homicide-11-0 - 3/22 - Austin shooting

1 dead - https://www.statesman.com/news/20200325/man-dies-from-wounds-after-cedar-park-shooting-sunday?template=ampart - 3/25 - Cedar Park shooting

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/apd-investigating-homicide-in-north-austin/ - 3/26 - Austin stabbing

1 dead - http://www.austintexas.gov/news/homicide-13-0 - 3/27 - Austin body found with trauma

1 dead - https://www.statesman.com/news/20200329/overnight-man-killed-woman-injured-in-north-austin-shooting - 3/29 - Austin shooting

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/local/travis-county/authorities-investigating-report-of-shots-fired-in-pflugerville/ - 3/31 - Pflugerville shooting

1 dead - http://www.austintexas.gov/news/homicide-15-0 - 4/13 - Austin stabbing

1 dead - https://www.statesman.com/news/20200427/suspect-in-manchaca-womans-death-also-found-dead-authorities-say?template=ampart - 4/16 - Manchaca shooting

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/local/hays/san-marcos-police-urge-shelter-in-place-as-they-respond-to-incident/ - 4/18 - San Marcos shooting

1 dead - https://www.kvue.com/article/news/crime/downtown-austin-street-fight-turns-fatal/269-02712655-7a03-46a8-8a3f-2320a0966765 - 4/18 - Austin beating

1 dead - https://www.statesman.com/news/20200520/update-suspect-in-custody-after-fatal-pflugerville-shooting?template=ampart - 5/19 - Pflugerville shooting

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/local/bastrop-county/bastrop-county-sheriffs-office-investigating-homicide-outside-del-valle-grocery-store/ - 5/24 - Del Valle shooting

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/local/travis-county/woman-pronounced-dead-at-scene-of-shooting-in-pflugerville/ - 5/26 - Pflugerville shooting

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/man-dead-in-shooting-at-east-austin-apartment-complex/ - 5/28 - Austin shooting

2 dead - https://www.kvue.com/article/news/crime/caldwell-county-community-heartbroken-shooting-victims-luling-cousins/269-fe416567-31dc-4d4c-b5be-2a4954eb40db?fbclid=IwAR1turRK-yslvb0e8a9cAuoOU0y6jCoSzkFJGbWjKCsKDchIwgkqS4Ue4es - 6/14 - Luling shooting

1 dead - https://www.statesman.com/news/20200620/austin-police-respond-to-two-homicides-within-hours-of-each-other?template=ampart - 6/20 - Austin shooting

1 dead - https://www.statesman.com/news/20200620/austin-police-respond-to-two-homicides-within-hours-of-each-other?template=ampart - 6/20 - Austin shooting

1 dead - https://www.statesman.com/news/20200701/ice-cream-vendor-shot-in-north-austin-robbery-has-died-police-say?template=ampart - 6/23 - Austin shooting

1 dead - https://www.statesman.com/news/20200806/2-arrested-in-connection-with-death-of-missing-round-rock-man-police-say?template=ampart - 6/24 - Body found - Travis County

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/crime/suspect-arrested-in-connection-with-east-austin-homicide/ - 6/24 - Austin shooting

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/crime/police-investigating-homicide-after-person-shot-dead-in-east-austin/ - 6/28 - Austin shooting

1 dead - http://www.austintexas.gov/news/homicide-23-0 - 7/8 - Austin stabbing

1 dead - https://www.kvue.com/article/news/local/homcide-investigation-southeast-austin-wickersham/269-24ca5a01-c656-4a86-913d-24c46395ff19?fbclid=IwAR0YyjMxlhLLtz3hO2stCxQ4E9EdAMKcR37zX8-XQc2-12294WCmIWHaKag - 7/13 - Austin shooting

1 dead - http://www.austintexas.gov/news/homicide-25-0 - 7/16 - Austin shooting

1 dead - http://www.austintexas.gov/news/homicide-26-0 - 7/19 - Austin shooting 

1 dead - http://www.austintexas.gov/news/homicide-27-1 - 7/20 - Austin shooting

-

Pending cases

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/police-investigating-body-found-near-taco-shack-in-northwest-austin/ - 2/29 - body found - Austin

1 dead - https://www.statesman.com/news/20200311/manrsquos-body-found-on-conveyor-belt-at-recycling-plant-in-travis-county?template=ampart - 3/11 - body found - Austin

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/body-found-outside-texas-workforce-commission/ - 4/6 - Austin body found

1 dead - https://www.statesman.com/news/20200418/body-found-behind-h-e-b-store-in-round-rock-police-say?template=ampart - 4/18 - Round Rock - body found

1 dead - https://www.kvue.com/article/news/local/manchaca-body-found-homicide-investigation-janice-hughes/269-c1872dc9-e085-4752-a759-473ebc9ad239?fbclid=IwAR2Bs8NV2YaYn9T0LgjH5JoS2-g1_l7KB4e935ziMKvSTUOnI80oMgHh1Xs - 4/16 - Manchaca - body found

1 dead - https://www.statesman.com/news/20200521/just-in-body-found-near-homeless-camp-in-northeastern-travis-county-officials-say?template=ampart - 5/21 - body found - Austin

Austin area population

City: 964,254 (July 1, 2018 estimate) - source: US Census Bureau
Travis County: 1,273,954 (July 1, 2019 estimate) - source: US Census Bureau
Metro: 2,227,083 (July 1, 2019 estimate) - source: US Census Bureau

Area - City: 297 square miles (2010) - US Census Bureau
Area - Metro: 4,285 square miles - Wikipedia
Area - Travis County: 1,023 square miles - Wikipedia

-

Previous years

2019 - 35
2018 - 35
2017 - 23
2016 - 39
2015 - 19
2014 - 31
2013 - 25
2012 - 32
2011 - 28
2010 - 31
2009 - 23
2008 - 24
2007 - 30
2006 - 20
2005 - 26

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

In any case, trying to pin the rise in murder rates on any one thing depending on one's ideological allegiance is dumb (not directed at you, Acajack, btw). It seems pretty obvious that many factors are playing into it:

• Most young people are out of work and out of school due to COVID, with nowhere to go and nothing to do (particularly important in marginalized communities where after-school programs helped to keep kids away from crime).
• High unemployment and a minimal social safety net to cope with it means people are more desperate, and more likely to therefore commit crimes. Even if minor in nature, an increase in property crimes can lead to a rise murders when they "go wrong".
• COVID-related mental health crisis has people on edge, and behaving more aggressively.
• COVID-related lockdowns and border closures have interrupted the flow of illegal drugs. Gangs have become more desperate and are fighting over a shrinking slice of the pie.
• A large number of prisoners released back on the streets as a result of COVID outbreaks in prisons (obviously a brilliant idea...).
• It's been a hot summer in most of the country. Heatwaves have traditionally coincided with rises in crime, both as a result of more people being outside; and people being more likely to be irritable.
• Rise in gun ownership as a result of fears related to both COVID and BLM protests.
• Anti-police brutality protests tend to cause cops to take more of a hands-off approach - whether as a deliberate act of spite, or as a consequence of not wanting to get in trouble.

thank you!

that's some 100% grade-A mic drop shit right there.

a refreshing break from the idiocy of the ax-grinders, who infest this thread (and sadly, so many others).

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

thank you!

that's some 100% grade-A mic drop shit right there.

a refreshing break from the idiocy of the ax-grinders, who infest this thread (and sadly, so many others).

Yes, that was a good post.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Handro

Exactly.

Well then that's "the American government responding to the pandemic the same way the Canadian government is." The response in this country is totally province-specific: ten provinces, ten different sets of measures and decisions and rules.

(Nearly all of the stuff that matters for pandemic measures is of provincial jurisdiction anyway.)

[lio45]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

Portland and New York were safe, but there's still a certain precariousness to it - with less of a social safety net, any disruptions to the carefully balanced social order can cause more of a jolt than it would in a place with a more solid foundation of stability. Worth noting that homicide is up slightly in Toronto as well though.


In any case, trying to pin the rise in murder rates on any one thing depending on one's ideological allegiance is dumb (not directed at you, Acajack, btw). It seems pretty obvious that many factors are playing into it:

• Most young people are out of work and out of school due to COVID, with nowhere to go and nothing to do (particularly important in marginalized communities where after-school programs helped to keep kids away from crime).
• High unemployment and a minimal social safety net to cope with it means people are more desperate, and more likely to therefore commit crimes. Even if minor in nature, an increase in property crimes can lead to a rise murders when they "go wrong".
• COVID-related mental health crisis has people on edge, and behaving more aggressively.
• COVID-related lockdowns and border closures have interrupted the flow of illegal drugs. Gangs have become more desperate and are fighting over a shrinking slice of the pie.
• A large number of prisoners released back on the streets as a result of COVID outbreaks in prisons (obviously a brilliant idea...).
• It's been a hot summer in most of the country. Heatwaves have traditionally coincided with rises in crime, both as a result of more people being outside; and people being more likely to be irritable.
• Rise in gun ownership as a result of fears related to both COVID and BLM protests.
• Anti-police brutality protests tend to cause cops to take more of a hands-off approach - whether as a deliberate act of spite, or as a consequence of not wanting to get in trouble.

So, in no particular order, we can blame:

- That Wuhan virology lab for unleashing Covid onto the world;
- Mother Nature and/or Climate Change for such a hot July;
- The 2A types for being the reason guns are so accessible;
- BLM for cops slacking off.

[biguc]

Is there any other field where you can do your job so shittily that tens of thousands of your employers have to take to the streets and protest about it, and it's ok to be worse at your job in response?

Kind of proves the protesters' point.

[photoLith]

I wouldn’t want to be a police officer patrolling majority black neighborhoods right now. Anything now can cause mass destruction and rioting and then the cop will lose their job for doing their job.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by photoLith

I wouldn’t want to be a police officer patrolling majority black neighborhoods right now. Anything now can cause mass destruction and rioting and then the cop will lose their job for doing their job.

If by "anything" you mean cops killing unarmed citizens, then... what did you expect? If the same thing was happening somewhere else in the world, you all would be "OMG, freedom and liberty!"

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

^ that's delusional

I don't think you actually understand why people are upset.