Will smaller cities start luring young singles at expense of NYC/SF/LA?

[hauntedheadnc]

The rush to the city is happening all over the country, which means that more and more cities are getting on the ball and transforming themselves. The suburbs don't cut it anymore, no matter where you are. That being the case, if you want an urban lifestyle you don't have to go to the city anymore to get what you want -- you can go to a city and stand a reasonable chance of it. Thus, as prices push people out of the city (and city, you know who you are), people can get most or all of what they want in a city.

In short, cities don't suck as much as they used to, and you can have an urban lifestyle in a lot more places that you used to years ago because they were too dangerous, too dead, or what have you.

Thank heaven for it, too. As the forum sage 599GTO reminds us, this allows our wealthy (and therefore morally superior) betters to enjoy their days among the other moneyed swells without hordes of unwashed holders of bachelors degrees clamoring in their midst.

[Cirrus]

Originally Posted by rs913

But....if we're talking about a specific kind of person, namely people in their 20s and 30s who tend to make cities vibrant and exciting, are those the same people who are currently driving prices into the stratosphere in NY and SF? Sure, some of those people are paid highly enough to do that, but you've got older investors and foreign investors (who don't live there) too.

Yes. Certainly they are in DC.

[hammersklavier]

If you go to KCMO, there's this place in the Crossroads district that sells hard water Italian ice! That place was awesome -- nothing quite like getting drunk and a brainfreeze at the same time.

(Ok, they called it a slushy cocktail or something but if it looks like a water ice with liquors in and tastes like a water ice with liquors in then I'm calling it a water ice with liquors in.)

Having had the chance to poke around Kansas City, my sense is that the city core -- Downtown, the market and flats, the Crossings, Westport, that Spanish Mission commercial area what's-it-called the Country Club district, Brookside etc west of Troost is a damn fine urban core though certainly one of a characteristically Midwestern vernacular. Downtown still feels rather deader than Center City, Manhattan, or the Loop -- but that's a trait KC shares with pretty much every other city in its weight class. And there are definitely more vacant lots and strip mall-y sorts of developments than are particularly healthy.

I'd love to poke around some more of these midsize Midwestern cities and see whether or not KC is typical. It's a gorgeous place, but (despite the obvious infrastructure for it) the bike network is ... how shall I put it politely? ... kind of lacking, and the bus system seemed like a total clusterfuck, I couldn't make heads or tails of what routes went where. And there were two bus companies too!

[eschaton]

I think many smaller cities have started at least part of a revival, although obviously not everywhere can be Portland.

Grads right out of college though, I don't think are the major group. Instead I think it's the following.

1. Local people who don't want to move far away from what they knew growing up, but don't want to live in the suburbs when they graduate.

2. Kids who went to college in the city, and decide to stick around when they graduate.

3. People who are a bit older (late 20s to 30s) who decide to move to the metro because of a job opportunity and a lower cost of living. Many of these people end up a bit jaded about the big city and/or get sick of being nearly broke all the time.

[10023]

Originally Posted by James Bond Agent 007

I'm not even a young college grad, but I've already started the process of doing exactly what you're describing, to the same city you mentioned.

Hip and fashionable cities are over-rated. Especially when they cost twice what you can get in a less hip and fashionable city, even though that less hip and fashionable city has probably 85% of what the hip and fashionable city has.

Some people think this way, and other people think differently.

Only a small percentage of young singles in America live in NYC or LA or SF. And actually a very different type of person lives in each of those three. That will continue to be the case, and the people who want to live in those cities will continue to do so, and the people for whom it's not worth sharing a small apartment with two roommates won't. For some people it's that 15% that makes all the difference (hell, for some people that 15% is most of their daily experience).

However it's a great thing that more than a handful of American cities are becoming places where young people want to live.

[10023]

Originally Posted by hammersklavier

If you go to KCMO, there's this place in the Crossroads district that sells hard water Italian ice! That place was awesome -- nothing quite like getting drunk and a brainfreeze at the same time.

(Ok, they called it a slushy cocktail or something but if it looks like a water ice with liquors in and tastes like a water ice with liquors in then I'm calling it a water ice with liquors in.)

If you want a better version of this (I'm assuming it's just slushy with vokda in it or something), check out Parson's next time you're in Chicago.

Negroni slushies for the win...




And they've got a nice outdoor area to hang out in.

[Centropolis]

Originally Posted by hammersklavier

If you go to KCMO, there's this place in the Crossroads district that sells hard water Italian ice! That place was awesome -- nothing quite like getting drunk and a brainfreeze at the same time.

(Ok, they called it a slushy cocktail or something but if it looks like a water ice with liquors in and tastes like a water ice with liquors in then I'm calling it a water ice with liquors in.)

Having had the chance to poke around Kansas City, my sense is that the city core -- Downtown, the market and flats, the Crossings, Westport, that Spanish Mission commercial area what's-it-called the Country Club district, Brookside etc west of Troost is a damn fine urban core though certainly one of a characteristically Midwestern vernacular. Downtown still feels rather deader than Center City, Manhattan, or the Loop -- but that's a trait KC shares with pretty much every other city in its weight class. And there are definitely more vacant lots and strip mall-y sorts of developments than are particularly healthy.

I'd love to poke around some more of these midsize Midwestern cities and see whether or not KC is typical. It's a gorgeous place, but (despite the obvious infrastructure for it) the bike network is ... how shall I put it politely? ... kind of lacking, and the bus system seemed like a total clusterfuck, I couldn't make heads or tails of what routes went where. And there were two bus companies too!

youre probably talking about the regular busses and the "max" which is the BRT light system that is still the regional transit admin. theres a few bus lines that specifically run the vertical length of the central core, which is easy and convenient, and the max line is one of them. they display arrival times on the kiosks. i dont know what the eta is to the streetcar but they are making serious progress with the construction.

there is a trail that follows an old street car row south of the plaza that connects to the village like nodes to the south thats great to bar/restaurant hop to on a bike. provided you dont eat or drink too much.

[mrnyc]

its certainly true that more and more a lot of cities have versions of amenities and things the big coastal cities have. so no doubt if the young people cant afford it and dont come to the coasts, some of the young people jobs will go away too. certainly some other cities will gain from that.

it remains to be seen if even any amount that happening would hurt the bigger coastal cities, which are booming for all kinds of other reasons and not so dependent on one segment of society. not to mention these kinds of thing are cyclical anyway, so who can say if the trend of losing young people or young people staying away, if there is any quantifiable trend of that, would remain or remain for long, before it reversed yet again.

[rs913]

OK, just in case anyone thought my OP was overreaching, I should clarify that I'm not predicting that NYC, SF, and LA will "decline" in any significant way, or somehow be eclipsed by Louisville, Kansas City, and Salt Lake City.

But I still wonder if a few interesting (if not radically disruptive) trends may start - or continue - to happen:

- More people in their 20s or 30s (not just fresh college grads, but people in a wider demographic) will pick the smaller cities. Some will always pick the big cities, but that number will shrink at least a little if big cities are losing their luster a little due to costs and other factors.

- We'll start to see a subtle shift in terms of how these cities are perceived among young and young-ish people, more acceptable as alternatives to the big places. There are a few examples of this mentioned upthread already.

- Jobs will probably follow these demographic trends to some degree.

- While NYC, SF, and LA won't suddenly be abandoned by everyone, we'll also see a subtle shift in the population that lives in the expensive parts of these cities (older, richer, and in some cases, "absentee" if they're investors)

- Even if it's a cyclical thing, and the pendulum shifts back towards the big cities, I doubt once the smaller cities establish more vibrancy and attractiveness in people's minds, that this will be entirely undone. Which, in the end, is definitely a positive thing.

[STLgasm]

One phenomenon that I have noticed over the past 5 years or so in St. Louis is that Chicago seems to turn out to be a temporary move. As the closest "megacity" to St. Louis, it obviously attracts a ton of young, upwardly-mobile St. Louisans. However, all my friends who moved there for or after college have either moved to New York or back to St. Louis. According to many, Chicago is kind of "caught in the middle"-- it has a lot of the drawbacks of a really big city, but it simply lacks the intensity and energy of New York. It definitely seems like Chicago has lost a bit of its appeal as a default destination for post-collegiate St. Louisans as other magnet cities are really gaining in popularity (DC, Austin, Nashville and of course, New York). That said, everyone seems to have a special fondness for Chicago, but at the end of the day, if they're going to live in the Midwest, they choose St. Louis for its ease of living, accessibility to top cultural assets and urban neighborhoods with flair. And if they crave a bigger city, they ultimately choose the king of them all, New York.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by rs913

OK, just in case anyone thought my OP was overreaching, I should clarify that I'm not predicting that NYC, SF, and LA will "decline" in any significant way, or somehow be eclipsed by Louisville, Kansas City, and Salt Lake City.

But I still wonder if a few interesting (if not radically disruptive) trends may start - or continue - to happen:

- More people in their 20s or 30s (not just fresh college grads, but people in a wider demographic) will pick the smaller cities. Some will always pick the big cities, but that number will shrink at least a little if big cities are losing their luster a little due to costs and other factors.

- We'll start to see a subtle shift in terms of how these cities are perceived among young and young-ish people, more acceptable as alternatives to the big places. There are a few examples of this mentioned upthread already.

- Jobs will probably follow these demographic trends to some degree.

- While NYC, SF, and LA won't suddenly be abandoned by everyone, we'll also see a subtle shift in the population that lives in the expensive parts of these cities (older, richer, and in some cases, "absentee" if they're investors)

- Even if it's a cyclical thing, and the pendulum shifts back towards the big cities, I doubt once the smaller cities establish more vibrancy and attractiveness in people's minds, that this will be entirely undone. Which, in the end, is definitely a positive thing.

I guess I still don't get your point, because it's happening already.

Pittsburgh has a wide swathe of gentrifying neighborhoods. Excluding a few black neighborhoods, essentially every neighborhood in the East End is either already gentrified or gentrifying now. And a lot of the people moving into these neighborhoods are either young folks just out of college or transplants from somewhere else in the country (in my old neighborhood it seemed like every third transplant came from Brooklyn).

I think Pittsburgh is doing a bit better at this than many of its peer cities, but it's not alone. Virtually every city of reasonable size has either a growth in downtown apartments or (where applicable) at least one old urban neighborhood gentrifying.

[Centropolis]

i've certainly noticed the rise of nashville with early 20s millennials, sort of becoming the austin of the larger central-eastern united states. sort of reminds me of austin 10-15 years ago, in a way. its an active downtown with not much of a core - but all the energy goes straight downtown. its "hype factor" is on its way up, overarching its traditional country music hub status.

[rs913]

Originally Posted by eschaton

I guess I still don't get your point, because it's happening already.

Pittsburgh has a wide swathe of gentrifying neighborhoods. Excluding a few black neighborhoods, essentially every neighborhood in the East End is either already gentrified or gentrifying now. And a lot of the people moving into these neighborhoods are either young folks just out of college or transplants from somewhere else in the country (in my old neighborhood it seemed like every third transplant came from Brooklyn).

I think Pittsburgh is doing a bit better at this than many of its peer cities, but it's not alone. Virtually every city of reasonable size has either a growth in downtown apartments or (where applicable) at least one old urban neighborhood gentrifying.

I'm not just referring to "gentrification", or even "gentrification by young people", which we all know has been happening everywhere for awhile, but to a specific kind of person making the choice to live in a smaller city: specifically, those who might have chosen to move to one of the 3 or 4 biggest cities.

And even if it's already happening, I'm just pointing out one thing that may make it happen faster - the increasing difficulty of moving to NYC, LA, and SF in your 20s (or even in your 30s or 40s). People who are dead set on being there or need to be there for professional reasons will still do so. More people who are on the fence will say "no thank you", or give it a try but change their mind later.

[fleonzo]

What some here are not realizing, about young people moving to NYC, LA, SF, is that these places have always been expensive during their respective periods. And most young people don't come out of college earning a lot. No, (some) young people go for other reasons that are not solely based on finances....The video below gives you an idea of what young people tend to do when they come here!


• Video Link

[10023]

It's also worth noting that there are always young people with money. And in an increasingly globalized world, there are more young people for cities like NY or LA or London or Paris to draw from.

Lower Manhattan and hipster Brooklyn are full of European trustafarians (or Eurotrash, depending on the area), for instance.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by rs913

I'm not just referring to "gentrification", or even "gentrification by young people", which we all know has been happening everywhere for awhile, but to a specific kind of person making the choice to live in a smaller city: specifically, those who might have chosen to move to one of the 3 or 4 biggest cities.

And even if it's already happening, I'm just pointing out one thing that may make it happen faster - the increasing difficulty of moving to NYC, LA, and SF in your 20s (or even in your 30s or 40s). People who are dead set on being there or need to be there for professional reasons will still do so. More people who are on the fence will say "no thank you", or give it a try but change their mind later.

Define "might" here.

I'm 36 - I don't think I qualify as young by any measure any longer. But I remember getting out of college, and it seemed like most of the peers I knew went to NYC (nearly everyone to Williamsburg and Park Slope). I tried to do so myself, insofar as I fitfully applied for jobs there. But wasn't willing to take the plunge a lot of my acquaintances did, and move there without a job lined up. After spending some time in DC, and then New Haven, CT, I ended up in Pittsburgh when I was 25, and didn't look back.

Most of my cohort who moved to New York are long since gone. A couple moved back to Connecticut. One moved to Germany. One had kids and moved to Durham, NC. One was barely scraping by financially, and moved to Philly, and is much happier now. One moved to LA. I'm sure just as many 20somethings replaced these 30somethings leaving. But the fact remains that the majority didn't stick it out - they reached a point where they were sick of being nearly broke on a theoretically middle-class income, aged out of the social scene, and realized they could get a better deal elsewhere.

I recall one guy's story in particular. He was dating a friend of mine, and actually worked a skilled trade as an ornamental plasterer. He threw out his back, and was on disability for a month recovering. He realized the hipster kids he saw in Williamsburg at his local coffeeshop never seemed to leave - that most of them seemingly had no jobs, despite how expensive the neighborhood had gotten. His disgust at the realization he was surrounded by the idle rich convinced him that he needed to GTFO. And he did.

[Segun]

Originally Posted by STLgasm

One phenomenon that I have noticed over the past 5 years or so in St. Louis is that Chicago seems to turn out to be a temporary move. As the closest "megacity" to St. Louis, it obviously attracts a ton of young, upwardly-mobile St. Louisans. However, all my friends who moved there for or after college have either moved to New York or back to St. Louis. According to many, Chicago is kind of "caught in the middle"-- it has a lot of the drawbacks of a really big city, but it simply lacks the intensity and energy of New York. It definitely seems like Chicago has lost a bit of its appeal as a default destination for post-collegiate St. Louisans as other magnet cities are really gaining in popularity (DC, Austin, Nashville and of course, New York). That said, everyone seems to have a special fondness for Chicago, but at the end of the day, if they're going to live in the Midwest, they choose St. Louis for its ease of living, accessibility to top cultural assets and urban neighborhoods with flair. And if they crave a bigger city, they ultimately choose the king of them all, New York.

The type of person that moves to NYC is one that does so to make the city their own personal playground. NYC is America's scene. Taylor Swift is the official Global Welcome Ambassador for NYC now (no, for real, smh). They got the most non-threatening white person ever. Jay-Z is Mr.Corporate now. He doesn't talk about any real issues anymore, just how rich he is and how many paintings he collects. Chicago is losing the post-collegiate frat boy types, but now gaining a huge following from the art scene, people who want to be involved with the "Chicago experience", people who want to make their mark in a city that has still has a slew of deep seeded real city issues, and a strong local culture to boot. Same to be said for places like Detroit, Philly, St.Louis, Baltimore, Oakland. Being in the Middle of the Road is increasing in charm with people tired of just living in a place simply because it has a bunch of shit to do, generic factors, and or bragging rights and name recognition. More people want substance now. NYC will continue to be #1, but at the rate its going, it will be transformed into a boutique museum of a city like Paris. Just my take on things.

[ThePhun1]

Originally Posted by James Bond Agent 007

I'm not even a young college grad, but I've already started the process of doing exactly what you're describing, to the same city you mentioned.

Hip and fashionable cities are over-rated. Especially when they cost twice what you can get in a less hip and fashionable city, even though that less hip and fashionable city has probably 85% of what the hip and fashionable city has.

A college town or a city that's sizable that may be close to a bigger city could in many ways be better for a mid-late 20's graduate than an urban jungle.

For example, I love Downtown Pomona and the vibe the students of Cal Poly give it. I love it far more than the tourist trap, among other demerits, that is Hollywood. Granted, Pomona itself is a piece of work for sure (not a warzone but plenty of issues) but the Downtown has a nice little spunk to it.

[rs913]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Define "might" here.

I'm 36 - I don't think I qualify as young by any measure any longer. But I remember getting out of college, and it seemed like most of the peers I knew went to NYC (nearly everyone to Williamsburg and Park Slope). I tried to do so myself, insofar as I fitfully applied for jobs there. But wasn't willing to take the plunge a lot of my acquaintances did, and move there without a job lined up. After spending some time in DC, and then New Haven, CT, I ended up in Pittsburgh when I was 25, and didn't look back.

Most of my cohort who moved to New York are long since gone. A couple moved back to Connecticut. One moved to Germany. One had kids and moved to Durham, NC. One was barely scraping by financially, and moved to Philly, and is much happier now. One moved to LA. I'm sure just as many 20somethings replaced these 30somethings leaving. But the fact remains that the majority didn't stick it out - they reached a point where they were sick of being nearly broke on a theoretically middle-class income, aged out of the social scene, and realized they could get a better deal elsewhere.

I recall one guy's story in particular. He was dating a friend of mine, and actually worked a skilled trade as an ornamental plasterer. He threw out his back, and was on disability for a month recovering. He realized the hipster kids he saw in Williamsburg at his local coffeeshop never seemed to leave - that most of them seemingly had no jobs, despite how expensive the neighborhood had gotten. His disgust at the realization he was surrounded by the idle rich convinced him that he needed to GTFO. And he did.

Good stories....I myself can relate to a lot of that.

My point is that more of those same people, if they were in their early 20s now (vs 10-15 years ago), might choose not to take the plunge. And the ones that did might choose to leave sooner, given how two things seem to be changing: (1) NYC housing and costs getting even crazier, even relative to wages, and (2) the slowly increasing relative attractiveness of smaller cities.

It's also worth pointing out that the housing crunch in NYC means a typical young recent grad-type's apartment will be smaller, older, grungier, smaller, require more roommates, smaller, further away from where you work and play, and did I mention smaller? And cost of living means less money to enjoy the place you moved to. So these aren't just numbers, these are things that affect the stories their NYC friends will tell them about what it's really like to live there, thus affecting whether they choose to take the plunge.

It's true that some of them will just get replaced by wealthy Eurotrash trust-fund kids from abroad, but then you'd still see a change in the smaller American cities in terms of more young people sticking around, since the people replacing them in NYC aren't coming from there.

I'll admit I'm a little biased here in that I hope my theory is right. It's easier to root for Nashville or Pittsburgh to become cooler, than it is to root for NYC to become (even) cooler.

[C.]

Originally Posted by Segun

The type of person that moves to NYC is one that does so to make the city their own personal playground.

cool story, bro

Or it could be that NYC has plenty of job opportunities that are attracting folks from around the country.

Wall Street (finance/accounting)
Broadway (performing arts/drama)
Madison Avenue (media/advertising)
Park Avenue (fashion/retail merchandising)