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Originally Posted by Sun Belt
Crawford is talking about 1 year of data, based off of a survey. A survey that does not include undocumented immigrants -- because there is no data on people that don't have documents.
He is then forming a conclusion about long term trends based off of the results of one year of data.
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No, I'm conveying a consensus of long-term demographic trends based on all available data about said long-term trends, and that data indicate that immigration to U.S. has plummeted in recent years. There have been 20 years of decline.
I'm not sure what your "there's no reliable data on illegals therefore it isn't included" non-sequitur. Of course I'm not including something that doesn't exist. I also don't think you'll find a demographer who would disagree that undocumented immigration has plummeted in recent years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sun Belt
That is similar to somebody saying New York City will be empty in the future because it lost population last year, while ignoring the fact that NYC has gained population since the 2010 census.
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No, actually that would be fabricated and irrelevant. There is no Census count showing population loss in NYC in 40 years, and that has nothing whatsoever to do with the factors contributing to the plummet in intl migration to U.S. (greater nativism, low birthrates abroad, and improved economic opportunities elsewhere).
But, yeah, if a decennial Census showed a 70% drop in a city's population, then it would be reasonable to assume that, outside of temporary wartime/famine type factors, said city would be empty or near-empty in the near future.