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  #4561  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 8:59 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
Flu has a widely available vaccine that at times is 40% effective, and a HUGE amount of the public never gets.

I know, I've been offering it for years, and lots of people say no. And those are just the people who see the doctor.

Influenza vaccination has never been a prerequisite for normal life, like, ever....

But yes, among the elderly COVID is far more deadly, I'm aware of this
That's not true. See 1918 pandemic.
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  #4562  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 9:08 PM
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Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
So, let me make sure I am getting you right:

If Covid had the same death rate as the flu, we could deal with a higher r rate. However, since it is a lot more deadly, an r rate of 1 is basically the floor to judge when we are "good to go"?
I wouldn't say "good to go"... but if COVID had the same mortality rate as the flu, but still had a higher reproduction rate (r) then there would still be more people dying of COVID, but just not as many as there are dying now. So it would be a less concerning situation than what we're actually dealing with right now.

Actually, we've seen this situation in the U.S. fairly recently. I believe this was similar to the 2009 swine flu outbreak.
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  #4563  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 9:25 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
That's not true. See 1918 pandemic.
The very first Influenza vaccines weren't even available until the 1940's, long after the Spanish Flu pandemic was over.

So I stand by historic facts: Influenza vaccination has never been a prerequisite for normal life.

Besides, even today millions--perhaps billions--of people never get vaccinated regularly against Influenza.
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  #4564  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 9:31 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
The very first Influenza vaccines weren't even available until the 1940's, long after the Spanish Flu pandemic was over.

So I stand by historic facts: Influenza vaccination has never been a prerequisite for normal life.

Besides, even today millions--perhaps billions--of people never get vaccinated regularly against Influenza.
Okay, but governments did step in to manage the spread of influenza during the 1918 pandemic. If vaccines were available in 1918, it is obvious that government policy would be tailored to the distribution of an influenza vaccine. Our situation today is not without precedent.
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  #4565  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 10:46 PM
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Originally Posted by SIGSEGV View Post
Flu shots are indeed required in some contexts (e.g. participating in the US Antarctic Program, maybe some retirement homes etc?). They probably should be required in more (universities, service workers). Even if it doesn't help every year, it will help a lot overall.
On the contrary, when I participated in the US Antarctic Program one of the more interesting things we did was a study of the spread of flu and parainfluenza viruses to the isolated winter-over crew when the summer crowd returned carrying them. So, of course, we didn't want anyone vaccinated--we wanted them all "virgins" in respect of flu.

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  #4566  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 10:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
The very first Influenza vaccines weren't even available until the 1940's, long after the Spanish Flu pandemic was over.

So I stand by historic facts: Influenza vaccination has never been a prerequisite for normal life.

Besides, even today millions--perhaps billions--of people never get vaccinated regularly against Influenza.
Of course not. Besides the fact that flu is less deadly, some years the flu vaccine is only about 40% effective (compared to 95-100% for COVID vaccines) and less than half the population gets it. So if we were in any way dependent on it, we'd be in big trouble.
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  #4567  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 10:52 PM
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Some developments:

Quote:
For the second consecutive day, Brazil reported a record number of deaths from the coronavirus. AstraZeneca Plc’s and Pfizer Inc.’s vaccines protected the elderly after a single dose in a new study that validates giving both shots to older people and spacing out injections.

U.S. health officials called on Texas and Mississippi residents to keep wearing masks as governors there lift Covid-19 restrictions, saying it’s premature to abandon mitigation efforts. Michigan lowered its vaccine eligibility age to 50 from 65, becoming one of the first states to do so.

An experimental vaccine developed by India’s Bharat Biotech International Ltd. showed 81% efficacy in an interim clinical trial.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...bloombergdaily

By the way, we are now averaging over 2 million shots/day in the US.

Last edited by Pedestrian; Mar 3, 2021 at 11:08 PM.
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  #4568  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 10:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
On the contrary, when I participated in the US Antarctic Program one of the more interesting things we did was a study of the spread of flu and parainfluenza viruses to the isolated winter-over crew when the summer crowd returned carrying them. So, of course, we didn't want anyone vaccinated--we wanted them all "virgins" in respect of flu.


Sounds like the results of your study were that we need to have it!

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  #4569  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 11:01 PM
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The mood everywhere is so somber, I don't get it. More people should be happy, we are really getting close to the end of the worst of this.
More and more I'm thinking the "worst of this" may be in the psychological and intellectual damage to a generation of children many of whom have now spent a year without socializing with friends or getting much of an education.

Consider:

Quote:
Pima County (Tucson AZ) has seen a 67% increase in suicides this year among children ages 12 to 17, according to the Pima County Health Department.
https://tucson.com/news/local/with-t...3443e0102.html

For some time now it has been predicted we could see a "roaring Twenties" mentality in the population as a whole with 5+% economic growth rates like we haven't seen in some time. That's something to look forward to. But I wonder if the kids will ever get over this.

Last edited by Pedestrian; Mar 3, 2021 at 11:23 PM.
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  #4570  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 11:03 PM
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Originally Posted by SIGSEGV View Post
Sounds like the results of your study were that we need to have it!
Oh, no doubt. But it was interesting to see what kinds of contact transmitted it. Unfortunately, I don't know where my copy of the paper is. I personally got a parainfluenza virus from the "outsiders".

By the way, they are getting a lot tougher. Gall Bladder Ultrasound on all W/O personnel? Wow.
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  #4571  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 11:11 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
More and more I'm thinking the "worst of this" may be in the psychological and intellectual damage to a generation of children many of whom have now spent a year with socializing with friends or getting much of an education.

Consider:


https://tucson.com/news/local/with-t...3443e0102.html

For some time now it has been predicted we could see a "roaring Twenties" mentality in the population as a whole with 5+% economic growth rates like we haven't seen in some time. That's something to look forward to. But I wonder if the kids will ever get over this.
I think the kids are going to be better.

The push to reopen schools is basically a tidal wave at this point. If Chicago Public Schools reopen (which they already have), then we're in a good place.

Come on, how about some optimism?

My Mom and Dad are finally getting their first vaccine shots tomorrow!
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  #4572  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 11:25 PM
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
Come on, how about some optimism?
I'm very optimistic about most things and have been right along: The economy, control of the disease through immunization, the ability of science to conquer it (even if some low information folks don't cooperate by wearing masks and getting their shots).

But we have really scr*wed the kids. I think they should give every 16 year old in America a standardized test a year or two from now just to see how badly but we'd need to use something--maybe the SAT--where we have a comparison from the "before times".
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  #4573  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 11:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
Oh, no doubt. But it was interesting to see what kinds of contact transmitted it. Unfortunately, I don't know where my copy of the paper is. I personally got a parainfluenza virus from the "outsiders".

By the way, they are getting a lot tougher. Gall Bladder Ultrasound on all W/O personnel? Wow.

Was it in the American Journal of Epidemiology? I may have found it... (can PM you a copy). Or perhaps it's one of references 7-10 (all in Antarctic J US Rev) in the paper I'm looking at... mostly talking about rhinoviruses though!

And yes, the absolute worst part of working in the Antarctic/Arctic is the awful PQ process. How many times do I have to take this stupid pulmonary function test to prove that in fact my lungs work... Also, most people would have a PPD on there, but since I had the BCG they make me do a blood test instead (which is on a different page ).
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Last edited by SIGSEGV; Mar 3, 2021 at 11:40 PM.
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  #4574  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 11:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
I'm very optimistic about most things and have been right along: The economy, control of the disease through immunization, the ability of science to conquer it (even if some low information folks don't cooperate by wearing masks and getting their shots).

But we have really scr*wed the kids.
Fortunately the kids are all on tiktok/snapchat/whatever anyway. This would have been MUCH worse 20 years ago.
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  #4575  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2021, 2:27 AM
jtown,man jtown,man is offline
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2 million shots a day? That is certainly something to be happy about! This thing should be over in no time.

As far as being optimistic about our urban environments? I am far from it. I know we have all shared our opinions on what the future might hold, but I am anything but convinced it will be pretty.
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  #4576  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2021, 3:41 AM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
That's not true. See 1918 pandemic.
Wow. Really?
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  #4577  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2021, 3:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
I'm very optimistic about most things and have been right along: The economy, control of the disease through immunization, the ability of science to conquer it (even if some low information folks don't cooperate by wearing masks and getting their shots).

But we have really scr*wed the kids. I think they should give every 16 year old in America a standardized test a year or two from now just to see how badly but we'd need to use something--maybe the SAT--where we have a comparison from the "before times".
They’ve screwed everyone under 40 and maybe 50.

The approach here in Florida has been best. Leave things pretty much open (to the point that places like restaurants are demonstrably unsafe for the elderly), and let people make prudent decisions about their own health and well being.

Of course that only works when you have a robust healthcare system, not the shaky underfunded and underinvested public system in the UK.
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  #4578  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2021, 3:56 AM
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America has shit healthcare, though, so letting people fend for themselves isn't going to be pretty. Also, it's Florida. Is losing nightclub culture really that bad? Serious question.
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  #4579  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2021, 4:11 AM
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America has shit healthcare, though, so letting people fend for themselves isn't going to be pretty. Also, it's Florida. Is losing nightclub culture really that bad? Serious question.
America has excellent healthcare. It’s just expensive.

The UK literally does not have sufficient (or modern enough) hospitals, or enough nurses, to deal with high rates of hospitalisation. This isn’t just a Covid issue, it’s almost every winter flu season. See: https://www.theguardian.com/society/...-overstretched

And people aren’t getting Covid in restaurants, bars and gyms. Offices were responsible for more cases than all of those last fall, and the majority of cases by far are occurring in people’s homes. Just as in the US, there is media coverage of higher rates of infection in minority communities, but this is mostly because big South Asian families have 14 people over for Sunday lunch and they all get Covid.

If anything, the fact that basic NHS healthcare is free further reduces the disincentive to take risks created by the prospect of huge medical bills.
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  #4580  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2021, 5:04 AM
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Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas View Post
America has shit healthcare, though, so letting people fend for themselves isn't going to be pretty. Also, it's Florida. Is losing nightclub culture really that bad? Serious question.
Sounds like you aren't/ weren't into the nightclub scene but that doesn't make its hypothetical demise a good thing. Bars, nightclubs and the hospitality industry in general has been decimated...and they were what put a lot of people especially in places like South Florida to work.
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