A game: guess that house price (before the bubble bursts!) - Page 19

whatnext · #**361** Posted **May 25, 2016, 7:23 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by dleung

I've decided to look in the detached housing market... with the help of my family's ill Gotten Gains ™

Some deals still to be had (one I can afford, the other I can't)

Exhibit A:
30x110 lot in the most beautiful street in the middle of The Beaches, with direct access to the ravine across the street. 5 minute walk to Queen St, 10 minutes to waterfront. House appears quaint, but listing says "total renovation required" (demolition for me lol).

Exhibit B:
Big house on massive 137 x 82 corner lot, facing a park facing the waterfront just west of Scarborough bluffs. House itself has a dated 80's vibe.

Well, you'd probably feel more "at home" in Scarberia, right?

dleung · #**362** Posted **May 27, 2016, 5:17 AM**

I'm not brown lol

dleung · #**363** Posted **May 30, 2016, 2:04 AM**

No guesses? =(

lio45 · #**364** Posted **May 30, 2016, 1:47 PM**

Considering A requires a total renovation, and you say both stand out as "deals"...

I'd say A has got to be priced cheaper than B (B is much bigger AND doesn't require total renovation like A) even though A is probably way better located and in a much more desirable area (and has more style too).

At first sight, I'd say something like

A, $800,000
B, $1M

but in this case, considering the renovation costs for A, they end up both exactly in the same affordability range, which means that something can't be right, as per your hint that there's only one of the two you can afford.

Note that I don't know these areas at all, so I have assumed that B was in a pretty ordinary area. If it's in a desirable area, then jack up the price of B by several hundred thousand, and B becomes the one you can't afford, and the two guessed values are coherent.

lio45 · #**365** Posted **May 30, 2016, 1:52 PM**

My neighbor contacted me a couple weeks ago to see if I was interested in buying his land... 100 acres, was cut pretty heavily 20 years ago, so it's currently a very dense 20-year-old forest of mainly sugar maple, black cherry and yellow birch. Gently sloping, in a valley. The parcel is landlocked except that when I'll buy it it won't be anymore. Located 1 hour southeast of Sherbrooke.

I'd be curious to see what the guesses would look like for the fair value of that...

TorontoDrew · #**366** Posted **May 30, 2016, 2:02 PM**

Everybody guess how much money Mommy and Daddy are going to give me, LOL. Got to love self entitled people. My parents offered me cash for a new place and I told them to keep it.

lio45 · #**367** Posted **May 30, 2016, 2:09 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by TorontoDrew

Everybody guess how much money Mommy and Daddy are going to give me, LOL. Got to love self entitled people. My parents offered me cash for a new place and I told them to keep it.

Out of curiosity, you're going to refuse the inheritance when it comes and give it all to charity instead...? Sincere question.

kwoldtimer · #**368** Posted **May 30, 2016, 2:15 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45

Out of curiosity, you're going to refuse the inheritance when it comes and give it all to charity instead...? Sincere question.

My reaction was to think that some parents would prefer to gift while alive to see the money do some good rather than to leave it as an inheritance. But donating residual estates to charity is always a good thing - that's what I plan to do.

That said, accepting money from parents who can't really afford to make the gift or who would be likely to see the "gift" as a lifetime licence to interfere in their child's life seem like good things to avoid!

kwoldtimer · #**369** Posted **May 30, 2016, 2:16 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45

My neighbor contacted me a couple weeks ago to see if I was interested in buying his land... 100 acres, was cut pretty heavily 20 years ago, so it's currently a very dense 20-year-old forest of mainly sugar maple, black cherry and yellow birch. Gently sloping, in a valley. The parcel is landlocked except that when I'll buy it it won't be anymore. Located 1 hour southeast of Sherbrooke.

I'd be curious to see what the guesses would look like for the fair value of that...

Its value based on its being a woodlot, or does it have other potential uses?

lio45 · #**370** Posted **May 30, 2016, 3:07 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

My reaction was to think that some parents would prefer to gift while alive to see the money do some good rather than to leave it as an inheritance. But donating residual estates to charity is always a good thing - that's what I plan to do.

That said, accepting money from parents who can't really afford to make the gift or who would be likely to see the "gift" as a lifetime licence to interfere in their child's life seem like good things to avoid!

My paternal grandpa did exactly that, he sold his domain nearly ten years ago already to a hardwood company (the owner of that company lived in the area and they knew each other already) but kept the right to live in the house for the rest of his life. The proceeds were divided equally among his four children at the time.

He still lives there, and still hunts even though he doesn't own the land anymore (which is now being logged a bit more than it was under his ownership, but still getting only mildly logged for the time being last I checked).

I personally would also definitely prefer to give while alive. Hopefully that's very far away in the future though. I don't even have kids yet! I might have to leave everything to our two cats...

I suppose you don't have kids, but don't you have close relatives? Leaving everything to your alma mater would be standard practice for an old bachelor, it's an option as well

If you want to irk me, you can always leave your entire inheritance to the party coffers of the Liberal Party of Canada.

lio45 · #**371** Posted **May 30, 2016, 3:14 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Its value based on its being a woodlot, or does it have other potential uses?

Mostly a woodlot, though it can also be recreational/hunting land.

It's in a valley and gently sloping, and it's very good soil, so it could become agricultural land if one didn't mind razing the forest and if it's united with the lands I already have and if they become agricultural too (otherwise, it's still landlocked). The region is a patchwork of forested hilltops and cultivated fields in the valleys.

Also, it's full of 20-years-old sugar maples at the moment so eventually it could be turned into a syrup operation someday.

But I'm pretty sure the current market value of the parcel is as a simple woodlot first and foremost.

kwoldtimer · #**372** Posted **May 30, 2016, 3:16 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45

My paternal grandpa did exactly that, he sold his domain nearly ten years ago already to a hardwood company (the owner of that company lived in the area and they knew each other already) but kept the right to live in the house for the rest of his life. The proceeds were divided equally among his four children at the time.

He still lives there, and still hunts even though he doesn't own the land anymore (which is now being logged a bit more than it was under his ownership, but still getting only mildly logged for the time being last I checked).

I personally would also definitely prefer to give while alive. Hopefully that's very far away in the future though. I don't even have kids yet! I might have to leave everything to our two cats...

I suppose you don't have kids, but don't you have close relatives? Leaving everything to your alma mater would be standard practice for an old bachelor, it's an option as well

If you want to irk me, you can always leave your entire inheritance to the party coffers of the Liberal Party of Canada.

My intended recipients are local cultural organizations. My almae matres will just have to get along without me!

lio45 · #**373** Posted **May 30, 2016, 3:28 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

My intended recipients are local cultural organizations. My almae matres will just have to get along without me!

You're not YOLOish enough to burn it all for personal pleasure at this point? I think I might be tempted to do that.

dleung · #**374** Posted **May 31, 2016, 5:01 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45

Considering A requires a total renovation, and you say both stand out as "deals"...

I'd say A has got to be priced cheaper than B (B is much bigger AND doesn't require total renovation like A) even though A is probably way better located and in a much more desirable area (and has more style too).

At first sight, I'd say something like

A, $800,000
B, $1M

but in this case, considering the renovation costs for A, they end up both exactly in the same affordability range, which means that something can't be right, as per your hint that there's only one of the two you can afford.

Note that I don't know these areas at all, so I have assumed that B was in a pretty ordinary area. If it's in a desirable area, then jack up the price of B by several hundred thousand, and B becomes the one you can't afford, and the two guessed values are coherent.

A is spot on ($799K)
B is $1.6M

Those houses in equivalent areas in Vancouver would be $2M and $5M respectively.

And no ill Gotten Gains really, just switching over from 2 little condos now that the stock market is crap.

lio45 · #**375** Posted **May 31, 2016, 2:39 PM**

Wow, I was spot on for both of them if you recall that for B my guess was a neighborhood-adjustable value (since I haven't got the slightest idea whether or not it's in a good area, and I didn't want to waste time googling GTA neighborhoods) of $1M if the area's not very desirable, and ~$1.5M if it is.

So, I assume you're going to buy A, raze it (you're Chinese, after all) and build a pink stucco monster on that 30x110 lot?

All trees will have to be eliminated, of course.

How many eights does the address have in it?

lio45 · #**376** Posted **May 31, 2016, 2:49 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Its value based on its being a woodlot...

I am now wondering whether there are ways to optimize the value of timber land for a future Chinese buyer. A quick google search told me that Cherry trees are supposed to be auspicious, so maybe it would be an idea to log everything else (even if only for pulp) to leave only the black cherry.

Or maybe selectively keep only cherry in some regions and maple in others, following a plan, in order to have the fall foliage colors drawing a dragon (or whatever is the luckiest animal) when viewed from the sky.

The gap between neighbors is so enormous that I have a huge range of addresses to pick from -- I wonder if I could get the town to accept "888". There are cabins before me (with addresses in the two digits), but not after me, at least for a long time -- I've never been up that road all the way to the end, but if there are, they're far away.

(For the record, I'm actually not completely joking with these ideas.)

kwoldtimer · #**377** Posted **May 31, 2016, 2:51 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45

You're not YOLOish enough to burn it all for personal pleasure at this point? I think I might be tempted to do that.

I'm only YOLOish enough to make sure I'm not denying myself anything I want, although apart from travel my wants are modest (I might be "nouveau", but I needn't look/act "nouveau"). I don't see how I could burn through it unless I remain in good health until I'm about 115 years old!

lio45 · #**378** Posted **May 31, 2016, 3:00 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I'm only YOLOish enough to make sure I'm not denying myself anything I want, although apart from travel my wants are modest (I might be "nouveau", but I needn't look/act "nouveau"). I don't see how I could burn through it unless I remain in good health until I'm about 115 years old!

My parents' neighbor (she now lives in a home though) turned 102 yesterday. Super sharp mind, though she's got less energy than she did a few short years ago. Even if she were inclined to try to spend what she has, I don't think she'd be physically able...

My grandpa though is in amazing shape (but then he's a youngster in comparison, only 89). He has decided his traveling days were over, though. Relatives from SE France have visited occasionally during the last few years and are welcome of course but my gramp says he doesn't care if he never sees the place again.

I wonder if even someone who normally likes to travel will hit a cutoff point with age where you just decide to rule it out. I suppose you're not yet there!

kwoldtimer · #**379** Posted **May 31, 2016, 3:16 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45

My parents' neighbor (she now lives in a home though) turned 102 yesterday. Super sharp mind, though she's got less energy than she did a few short years ago. Even if she were inclined to try to spend what she has, I don't think she'd be physically able...

My grandpa though is in amazing shape (but then he's a youngster in comparison, only 89). He has decided his traveling days were over, though. Relatives from SE France have visited occasionally during the last few years and are welcome of course but my gramp says he doesn't care if he never sees the place again.

I wonder if even someone who normally likes to travel will hit a cutoff point with age where you just decide to rule it out. I suppose you're not yet there!

No, not there yet. I suspect that for those who love travel (or "living abroad" as I prefer to think of it), you want to keep going as long as you are physically able to. On my trip to Mexico earlier this year, there was a family travelling with an elderly woman who to all appearances was well past that cut-off. I think it made everyone on the flight feel uncomfortable.

lio45 · #**380** Posted **May 31, 2016, 3:25 PM**

Are you sure you aren't a bit too young to call yourself an oldtimer?