Planning for shrinking cities

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Hali87

I wonder what the largest shrinking city/metro in Canada is. Saint John NB was declining for quite a long time (and this was even built into their planning strategies/"growth" projections) but AFAIK it's growing again now. CBRM (Sydney-Glace Bay) is similar. One weird quirk about CBRM that kind of reminds me of Detroit is that despite the pressures on housing in NS, a lot of housing in that area was built hastily during boom years, was never really intended to outlast the (now defunct) mines, and is actively being torn down (especially in Glace Bay). Perhaps most jarring is that a lot of these were built as semis, and in many cases one half was demolished while the other still stands.





There are a few mostly resource-driven "northern" cities that I could see peaking within the next couple decades and then declining in population, one of them being Fort Mac. However, pretty much every CMA seems more likely to grow than shrink over the next couple decades.

That's just ridiculous. It's almost impossible to believe that paying to demolish the other half was the best decision financially.

[MolsonExport]

looks Maple Creekian to me.

[lio45]

The giveaway is the vegetation, which doesn't look anywhere near tropical enough.

(Also, that style of attached housing seemed totally absent from Maple Creek, from what I saw. It's all detached SFHs except on the two main streets.)

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by JHikka

By municipality using 2011-2016 growth rates: Thunder Bay (-0.41%), Chatham-Kent, Cape Breton.

Sudbury only grew by 0.78%, Saguenay by 0.83%.

By CMA/CA using 2016-2020 estimate growth rates: Sept-Iles (-1.14%), Baie-Comeau, North Battleford.

Corner Brook was very close to taking the CMA/CA crown but grew by 0.06%.

If we look at just 2019-2020 growth rate than Sainte-Marie was the fastest declining CMA/CA at -2.6%.

Is that Sault Ste. Marie or Ste-Marie-de-Beauce?

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Is that Sault Ste. Marie or Ste-Marie-de-Beauce?

Beauce. The StatCan name is Sainte-Marie.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

A lot of the manufacturers are for the mines. Greater Sudbury's land mas is about the same size as the GTA. From city hall (Tom Davies Square) it is almost 100km to the edge along the highways that cross it. Problem is, most of our city is rittled in potholes, yet it makes a lot of money for the province. So, as people move, tthe city will grow, but the infrastructure costs cannot be met on property taxes alone, and they are the highest in the province.

In addition to being almost three times the size of Timmins (with all the extra "stuff" that that brings), Sudbury is also in a better location as it's half the distance Timmins is to the GTA with better highway links.

Timmins is much more isolated with no other cities around it. Even if the cities near Sudbury aren't Paris, it's still better than being isolated.

Of course Timmins has several direct flights to Pearson every day, just like Sudbury does. And there isn't as much of a difference in flight time when compared to drive time.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Beauce. The StatCan name is Sainte-Marie.

Thanks. That's interesting.

That area has a reputation for doing well economically.

Perhaps the economic growth is concentrated in other towns.

Or maybe it's just the town getting old with little new blood coming in.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Acajack

In addition to being almost three times the size of Timmins (with all the extra "stuff" that that brings), Sudbury is also in a better location as it's half the distance Timmins is to the GTA with better highway links.

Timmins is much more isolated with no other cities around it. Even if the cities near Sudbury aren't Paris, it's still better than being isolated.

Of course Timmins has several direct flights to Pearson every day, just like Sudbury does. And there isn't as much of a difference in flight time when compared to drive time.

Not sure what you mean by isolated. There is a big gap of almost nothing between Parry Sound and Sudbury.

A flight to Timmins from Toronto takes 8 hours? That's the driving time.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Thanks. That's interesting.

That area has a reputation for doing well economically.

Perhaps the economic growth is concentrated in other towns.

Or maybe it's just the town getting old with little new blood coming in.

Sainte-Marie had good, sustained growth until 2019. That growth was dependent on natural increase as well as intraprovincial migration. The losses in the past two years (of roughly ~600) are strictly intraprovincial migration - people moving elsewhere in Quebec.

Saint-Georges is probably what you're thinking of. Sustained growth over the past two decades, natural decrease only began in 2018, with substantial increase in international migration beginning under Trudeau. +3,000 in the past decade.

Thetford Mines had its best year in 2020 since 2004 thanks to intraprovincial migration rates but its natural decrease is so bad that it might not be able to be sustained long-term.

Quebec hasn't had a good past five years, though. They have a number of CAs that are underperforming compared to their peers across Canada and are now entering natural decrease territory.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Not sure what you mean by isolated. There is a big gap of almost nothing between Parry Sound and Sudbury.

There aren't really any other towns like Sturgeon Falls in the immediate vicinity of Timmins, not even 3 hours away like the decent-sized Soo (and the US border) is from Sudbury, and North Bay which is even closer.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

A flight to Timmins from Toronto takes 8 hours? That's the driving time.

That's not what I meant.

Driving time from Timmins to Toronto is twice the drive time from Sudbury to Toronto.

But for the flight time there is only a half-hour difference.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Not sure what you mean by isolated. There is a big gap of almost nothing between Parry Sound and Sudbury.

A flight to Timmins from Toronto takes 8 hours? That's the driving time.

A flight from Timmins to Toronto is about 90 minutes. From Sudbury to Toronto is an hour.

A driving trip from Sudbury to Toronto is not much different than a trip from Windsor to Toronto. Using Yorkdale Mall as a destination, Sudbury/Windsor yields trips of <4 hrs, whereas Timmins is at ~7 using Google Maps. It's probably longer since most cars need to refuel (and I need to eat) after a few hours on the highway. It also requires more effort to drive on two-lane highways versus a four-to-six lane freeway.

Timmins is more isolated than Sudbury from the majority population region of the province. To the extent that a day-trip is possible from Sudbury to Toronto, but one is much harder from Timmins except for the dedicated long-haul highway-driver or person who can afford airfare.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Acajack

That's not what I meant.

Driving time from Timmins to Toronto is twice the drive time from Sudbury to Toronto.

But for the flight time there is only a half-hour difference.

Driving time and flying times are doubled between the cities.

Originally Posted by thewave46

A flight from Timmins to Toronto is about 90 minutes. From Sudbury to Toronto is an hour.

A driving trip from Sudbury to Toronto is not much different than a trip from Windsor to Toronto. Using Yorkdale Mall as a destination, Sudbury/Windsor yields trips of <4 hrs, whereas Timmins is at ~7 using Google Maps. It's probably longer since most cars need to refuel (and I need to eat) after a few hours on the highway. It also requires more effort to drive on two-lane highways versus a four-to-six lane freeway.

Timmins is more isolated than Sudbury from the majority population region of the province. To the extent that a day-trip is possible from Sudbury to Toronto, but one is much harder from Timmins except for the dedicated long-haul highway-driver or person who can afford airfare.

Then explain Thunder Bay being the second largest city in Northern ON.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Then explain Thunder Bay being the second largest city in Northern ON.

It's a regional centre that was previously the break-point for transshipment (rail to lake freighter) of grain from Western Canada to points east. You can see that legacy in the grain facilities on the lake shore. Now it serves more as the local regional centre for government and industry.

It had a strategic location. One that was lost by the fall of the Berlin Wall and the flow of grain from Eastern Europe to Western European markets. Canadian grain now goes moreso in other directions - west to Asia, most notably.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Driving time and flying times are doubled between the cities.
.

Except the difference in one case is 4 hours and in the other is only 30 minutes.

It's like comparing Gatwick-Heathrow (45 minutes) and Gatwick-Stansted (15 minutes) and saying the tangible difference is the same as Montreal-Toronto vs. Montreal-Paris because the flight time in both cases is tripled.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by thewave46

It's a regional centre that was previously the break-point for transshipment (rail to lake freighter) of grain from Western Canada to points east. You can see that legacy in the grain facilities on the lake shore. Now it serves more as the local regional centre for government and industry.

It had a strategic location. One that was lost by the fall of the Berlin Wall and the flow of grain from Eastern Europe to Western European markets. Canadian grain now goes moreso in other directions - west to Asia, most notably.

Timmins is the same for the North.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by thewave46

It's a regional centre that was previously the break-point for transshipment (rail to lake freighter) of grain from Western Canada to points east. You can see that legacy in the grain facilities on the lake shore. Now it serves more as the local regional centre for government and industry.

It had a strategic location. One that was lost by the fall of the Berlin Wall and the flow of grain from Eastern Europe to Western European markets. Canadian grain now goes moreso in other directions - west to Asia, most notably.

Plus, I don't think we're saying that location or proximity to the GTA is the sole factor in a city's growth. Only that relative to Timmins, Sudbury is less isolated and has a more accessible location.

If location were the only factor our biggest cities probably wouldn't be where they are.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Plus, I don't think we're saying that location or proximity to the GTA is the sole factor in a city's growth. Only that relative to Timmins, Sudbury is less isolated and has a more accessible location.

If location were the only factor our biggest cities probably wouldn't be where they are.

Cities are products of multiple individual conditions, of which isolation is one.

The lack of growth Thunder Bay and many northern Ontario towns/cities have experienced may be partially a product of isolation, especially say compared to Barrie. It also is a product of underlying economic conditions too.

I stand by my assertion that Timmins is more isolated from Ontario's population than Sudbury though. This may be one factor negatively affecting its growth.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by thewave46

Cities are products of multiple individual conditions, of which isolation is one.

The lack of growth Thunder Bay and many northern Ontario towns/cities have experienced may be partially a product of isolation, especially say compared to Barrie. It also is a product of underlying economic conditions too.

I stand by my assertion that Timmins is more isolated from Ontario's population than Sudbury though. This may be one factor negatively affecting its growth.

We are in agreement.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by thewave46

Cities are products of multiple individual conditions, of which isolation is one.

The lack of growth Thunder Bay and many northern Ontario towns/cities have experienced may be partially a product of isolation, especially say compared to Barrie. It also is a product of underlying economic conditions too.

I stand by my assertion that Timmins is more isolated from Ontario's population than Sudbury though. This may be one factor negatively affecting its growth.

So, how would you fix that so that somewhere like Timmins could grow?