Predict the most populous city in the world in 2050 and in 2100

[CaliNative]

I would guess somewhere is Asia, Africa or South America. Possibly Lagos, Cairo, New Delhi, Mumbai, Sao Paulo, Manilla, Seoul. Doubt Tokyo remains #1. Japanese birth rate low. Also, predict the largest 5 cities/metro areas in your nation in 2050/2100? In U.S. I would say NY, LA, Houston, Dallas-FW, Chicago by 2050 as top 5 metros.Houston & Dallas leapfrog Chicago. Only caveat is that sea level rise could impeed growth in Houston especially. But maybe not. It would also impact cities like Lagos and Manilla.

[SIGSEGV]

Probably Lagos or Kinshasa. Maybe Manila or Jakarta.

In the US, I'm not sure Houston and DFW keep up in growth for another 20 years. Hell, if immigration stays low, not sure the US will grow that much at all.

[ChiSoxRox]

For 2050, I'm thinking Delhi (or the Pearl River Delta if you count Guangzhou through Shenzhen or Hong Kong as one). India is urbanizing, and while it's not at the insane pace China has urbanized, Delhi is still the capital of a nation of a billion, and doesn't have the space limitations of Mumbai.

2050 US Metros (MSAs): New York, Los Angeles, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Washington-Baltimore (one MSA by then), Chicago, Atlanta.

2100 is too far out to predict IMO, and sea level rise by 2100 is going to be playing havoc with coastal cities. Maybe by 2100 Delhi and a good chunk of Uttar Pradesh have turned into the Indian version of the Pearl River Delta (the Yamuna MegaCity?)

[Crawford]

I'm guessing Delhi for 2050. African growth will trail expectations, with greater secularization and family planning. India will be like China today, with flat or declining population but a surge towards cities.

Obviously Lagos, Manilla and Jakarta will be contenders. Maybe Karachi, Kinshasa and Mumbai too. Jakarta is already a disaster though, sinking into the muck.

[iheartthed]

World 2050: either Delhi or Mumbai.
US 2050: NY, LA, Dallas, Washington-Baltimore, San Francisco-San Jose

2100 is too far away. Nobody could have imagined 80 years ago that Dallas and Houston would be in the top 5 today.

[suburbanite]

Ya I think as the high-growth countries continue to move out of third-world status, birth rates drop and the best contender would be one that is the beneficiary of large domestic migration. Indian cities have a much larger catchment area than Lagos for example.

I wonder if the Latin American giants in Mexico City and Sao Paulo will fall down the list.

[sentinel]

It would be interesting to see what people's lists would look like if things such as climate change were factored in, instead of using past population growth to assume future growth.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by CaliNative

I would guess somewhere is Asia, Africa or South America. Possibly Lagos, Cairo, New Delhi, Mumbai, Sao Paulo, Manilla, Seoul. Doubt Tokyo remains #1. Japanese birth rate low. Also, predict the largest 5 cities/metro areas in your nation in 2050/2100? In U.S. I would say NY, LA, Houston, Dallas-FW, Chicago by 2050 as top 5 metros.Houston & Dallas leapfrog Chicago. Only caveat is that sea level rise could impeed growth in Houston especially. But maybe not. It would also impact cities like Lagos and Manilla.

São Paulo is impossible. Even if the macrometropolitan area (32 million inh.) morfed into a single metropolitan area, that's still short of Tokyo and its growth rate is already below 10%/decade. Same for Mexico City: Central Valley is about 32 million too, but growth rates are already around single-digits/decade. And Mexico City is not as dynamic and wealthy as São Paulo.

Seoul (25 million inh.) will start to shrink this year already.

I'd go with New Delhi for 2050. It's right in the middle of an extreme densely populated area. Its rural surroudings are already much denser than US suburbs. As they turn urban, New Delhi population will skyrocket: 60-70 million for 2050.

And about the US, I guess Dallas and Houston will have taken the 3rd and 4th spot by then.

[liat91]

World 2050: New Delhi
World 2100: Lagos

US 2050: NY-LA-Dallas
US 2100: NY-LA-Dallas

[333609543]

I doubt any city will surpass 50 or 60 million in population, the logistics in regulating a city of that size is incredibly complicated and generally commutes would take longer than a day. What makes Tokyo so special was that Japan invested heavily into rail transport after WW2 (I was taught that it was a rubber shortage = no tires for automobiles), eventually that public transit backbone enabled many to be able to commute the the special wards for work, many also use the bullet train as commuter rail on the outskirts of the Kanto region. But Tokyo capped out at roughly 36 million, and is a highly developed urban centre that was able to start from scratch after a bunch of the city was turned to rubble.

None of the cities that are currently growing have this factor, and only chinese cities are generally developed enough to encourage this kind of megacity (Pearl River Delta) but it seems like the cities in the Pearl River Delta are largely separate commutersheds so i don't think it's fair to classify it as one city. (Shenzhen & Guangzhou are ~90-100km apart as the crow flies) The major employment nodes of the Tokyo area are no greater than 30km from central Tokyo (Saitama/Yokohama/Chiba).

My point in saying all that is that I see projections putting cities like Lagos and Kinshasa at over 50 million, even up to 80-100 million and I don't think that counts, not only will birth rates fall in Africa as more people move to cities (infant mortality is low enough that you don't need to have 8 children to ensure a few survive) and urban life makes having children a net negative (as opposed to using their labour in a rural setting for self sufficiency). As African urbanization increases the birth rate will fall as well.

My bet for 2050 is Delhi; for 2100 I'd say it's a toss up between Delhi, Kinshasa, Kampala, Nairobi, or Khartoum. Lagos is situated in a very low lying area and will certainly be very negatively affected by rising sea levels by this time.

[isaidso]

WORLD

2050: New Delhi, Cairo
2100: Lagos, Kinshasa


CANADA

2050: Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton
2100: Toronto, Calgary, Montreal, Edmonton, Vancouver


For Canada, Toronto's growth rate will slow but the city will maintain its position due to its huge lead and strong economy. Alberta will be the fastest growing province most years with both Calgary and Edmonton steadily climbing up the ranks. By century end, Calgary will emerge as a significant western counter balance to Toronto. Geographically constrained and expensive Vancouver will see growth move to other cities in BC. If the Cascadia Subduction Zone has its long expected catastrophic tremor, Vancouver will fall out of the Top 5 altogether.


TOP 5 CANADA 2050

1. Toronto-Hamilton: 12,500,000
2. Montreal: 6,400,000
3. Vancouver-Abbotsord: 4,400,000
4. Calgary: 3,300,000
5. Edmonton: 3,300,000

[iheartthed]

North America 2050: Mexico City, NYC, L.A., Toronto, Dallas

[BG918]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

North America 2050: Mexico City, NYC, L.A., Toronto, Dallas

Does Dallas continue to sprawl toward Oklahoma or is there large-scale densification of its suburban areas? To get to these population levels I would imagine it’s a combination.

No other metro in the U.S. is set up as well as DFW for massive growth. Surrounded by mostly flat land, dynamic and diverse economy, major international airport, central location within the country but without harsh winter weather like the northern cities and increasingly diverse population. The big x-factor is Texas itself; do they stay a low-tax Red State with a great business climate or do they morph into more of a Blue State as more coastal people move there? Not happening anytime soon but who knows by 2050. Look at Colorado, 20 years ago it was like Texas now it has more in common with California and Oregon.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by BG918

Does Dallas continue to sprawl toward Oklahoma or is there large-scale densification of its suburban areas? To get to these population levels I would imagine it’s a combination.

No other metro in the U.S. is set up as well as DFW for massive growth. Surrounded by mostly flat land, dynamic and diverse economy, major international airport, central location within the country but without harsh winter weather like the northern cities and increasingly diverse population. The big x-factor is Texas itself; do they stay a low-tax Red State with a great business climate or do they morph into more of a Blue State as more coastal people move there? Not happening anytime soon but who knows by 2050. Look at Colorado, 20 years ago it was like Texas now it has more in common with California and Oregon.

I think there are signs that Dallas is starting to grow up instead of out. They seem to be putting a lot into multi-family housing lately.

As for the political situation, the transition from red to blue in Texas might be as sudden as it was in California, which means it is plausible that Texas is solid blue by 2030. People forget but California was reliably red before 1992, and Texas was not as reliably red. Texas was actually a swing state and was overall politically left of California until the 1990s.

[The North One]

Dallas is horribly positioned for growth in the distant future. Did you just totally forget about climate change?

New York will fall really hard by 2100, that's guaranteed. but I'm also not so sure LA will become #1 since it has it's own set of problems. Something inland will skyrocket that people wont be able to predict. Could be Atlanta or even a Midwest city.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by The North One

Dallas is horribly positioned for growth in the distant future. Did you just totally forget about climate change?

Trying to guess how climate change will reorder the pecking order of cities is like guessing in 2019 that the U.S. would thoroughly screw up the response to a global pandemic in 2020. It is possible, but you won't know what's happening until it happens. And until it happens, the past is the best predictor of the future.

[saybanana]

I love watching those youtube videos about population growth predictions to 2100.

[MolsonExport]

Delhi or Lagos.

Yikes.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by isaidso

WORLD

2050: New Delhi, Cairo
2100: Lagos, Kinshasa


CANADA

2050: Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton
2100: Toronto, Calgary, Montreal, Edmonton, Vancouver


For Canada, Toronto's growth rate will slow but the city will maintain its position due to its huge lead and strong economy. Alberta will be the fastest growing province most years with both Calgary and Edmonton steadily climbing up the ranks. By century end, Calgary will emerge as a significant western counter balance to Toronto. Geographically constrained and expensive Vancouver will see growth move to other cities in BC. If the Cascadia Subduction Zone has its long expected catastrophic tremor, Vancouver will fall out of the Top 5 altogether.


TOP 5 CANADA 2050

1. Toronto-Hamilton: 12,500,000
2. Montreal: 6,400,000
3. Vancouver-Abbotsord: 4,400,000
4. Calgary: 3,300,000
5. Edmonton: 3,300,000

Interesting. Do you reckon Calgary will add the 3,100,000 needed to surpass your Montreal 2050 prediction by 2100, and that Montreal's growth will cease, or do you think that while Montreal will still grow, Calgary will explode by 5-7 million more people in the space of just 50 years?

[BG918]

Originally Posted by The North One

Dallas is horribly positioned for growth in the distant future. Did you just totally forget about climate change?

New York will fall really hard by 2100, that's guaranteed. but I'm also not so sure LA will become #1 since it has it's own set of problems. Something inland will skyrocket that people wont be able to predict. Could be Atlanta or even a Midwest city.

Not understanding why climate change would impact DFW’s growth? The coastal cities are in trouble and people will migrate inland to cities like Dallas.

There is the risk of increased desertification in the southern Plains that could eventually have an impact. The line used to be the 100th Meridian but has been migrating eastward. Cities like Dallas, Austin and San Antonio will deal with more drought conditions and less water unless they start desalinizing the Gulf.



The lack of water will hurt future growth Denver, Las Vegas and Phoenix. Inland cities in the southern US with access to water will be where the majority of growth will be in United States.