Middle Class Exodus from California Appears to be picking up speed

[Sun Belt]

Originally Posted by coyotetrickster

It's unfortunate this poster used an opinion piece from a free-market fetishist associated with a second-rate think tank as evidence. California's poverty rate is due to the poor wage conditions of workers in the Central Valley/Inland Empire and the declining outputs from Lost Coast mineral extraction industries. Agribusiness and logistics companies are abusive employers who routinely exploit labor.
We are losing a large segment of lower-level, albeit crucial, workers due to the entirely self-inflicted housing policies enacted after Prop 13, which itself turned into a massive road block to more housing, since cities and counties no longer had a means to raise revenues to cover increased costs. Retail and commercial real estate became the go-to developments because the employees for those entities did not use local service 24/7 like residents.
Coastal California has definitely tapped into the Pacific Century, and it's increasing wealth is evidence. SF itself is showing some interesting custom-manufacturing growth based on novel 3-d printing and composite material designs. Lots of product prototypes. These are not low-skill, entry-level operations. Computer and critical thinking skills are required.

Take a look at the census link provided in Vlajos' post.

Originally Posted by Vlajos

Here is the latest release.

https://www.census.gov/library/publi...o/p60-261.html

Scroll down to Appendix Table A-5
Number and Percentage of People in Poverty by State Using 3-Year Average Over: 2014, 2015, and 2016
Look at the SPM [Supplemental Poverty Measure] number and percentage and California ranks the highest in terms of poverty [only D.C. has a higher percentage, but D.C. isn't a state].


2016 - Calif: nearly 8 million in poverty which is 20.4% of the overall population.
2016 - Miss: 499,000 in poverty which is 16.9% of the overall population.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by BrownTown

No it wouldn't because the places where people would be immigrating are far less advanced and the last thing the Western world needs is more unskilled laborers. There's already way too many unskilled people for the number of unskilled jobs and those jobs are getting eliminated fast.

Exactly. This is where politicians here in America get it so wrong. They always tout our history of mass immigration, with particular attention to 1880-1920 and how these people came here with no skills, with only dreams. However, this is from a time where people literally dug ditches. Where the United States produced everything we consumed. We had so many low-skill jobs. Our country doesn't need more low-skill workers.

[dimondpark]

Hysterionics aside, here is the actual, unadjusted poverty rate in all 50 states from the Census Bureau.

Poverty is actually declining in most states, including CA.

[jd3189]

You guys realize low-skilled workers can be trained to do high-skilled work. It's called more education. Until the robots take over most industries, we can absorb more people to contribute to the economy. Yeah, some may or already have turned to crime, but that is usually a result of how we treat them before and after they come here.


As for California losing its middle class, I'm surprised that so many people here are okay with that. It would only be swell if most people were becoming wealthier and actually able to afford living there despite all the changes, but that's far from the truth.


A few weeks ago I went to the graduation of several of my good friends, including one from Central California. During a lunch at her house, her parents (who lived in Merced for decades) were talking about how even there it's getting too expensive and that they might consider moving to Nevada or out east in Tennessee where the graduation was taking place.


Without a decent middle class, an area will essentially be 3rd world. An ultra-rich place with extreme poverty not far away.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by jd3189

Y
Without a decent middle class, an area will essentially be 3rd world. An ultra-rich place with extreme poverty not far away.

Again, CA is "losing" middle class because they're transitioning to higher income households. CA is "losing" poor too, probably because they're transitioning to middle class.

A jurisdiction doesn't become "third world" because of higher-than-average income growth. What's happening in CA is pretty much ideal from an income growth perspective.

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by jd3189

You guys realize low-skilled workers can be trained to do high-skilled work. It's called more education. Until the robots take over most industries, we can absorb more people to contribute to the economy. Yeah, some may or already have turned to crime, but that is usually a result of how we treat them before and after they come here.


As for California losing its middle class, I'm surprised that so many people here are okay with that. It would only be swell if most people were becoming wealthier and actually able to afford living there despite all the changes, but that's far from the truth.


A few weeks ago I went to the graduation of several of my good friends, including one from Central California. During a lunch at her house, her parents (who lived in Merced for decades) were talking about how even there it's getting too expensive and that they might consider moving to Nevada or out east in Tennessee where the graduation was taking place.


Without a decent middle class, an area will essentially be 3rd world. An ultra-rich place with extreme poverty not far away.

Yup.

The NYTimes highlighted the UC system...
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/09/1...y-machine.html

[SLO]

I have know quite a few retiring California pensioners flee the state to pay cash in another state and live fat off the pensions. This is a couple stories I saw recently first on the need to reform the pensions and second an example on how people in the system are abusing it. Many of the cities in California are having to cut services because of employee and pension obligations that they cannot cut because its not politically popular.



Democrats running for California governor need to stop talking about Trump and start talking about public pensions

Why the silence? We all know. Any real solutions make too many enemies. And that's deemed politically dumb, especially during an election year.

Public employee unions are cash cows for Democratic candidates. And the unions get very angry when politicians try to reduce future retirement packages for state and local government workers.

The gubernatorial candidates held their first major debate last weekend. It was a raucous affair, but there wasn't a peep from Democrats about escalating public pension costs. A Republican candidate, Rancho Santa Fe businessman John Cox, tried to raise the issue, but Democrats wouldn't bite.

It's not just governor wannabes. You won't hear many Democratic candidates for any office railing about the need to throttle back on future pensions, or at least require employees to pay more into the systems.

"It's a tough issue for a Democrat to take on," says Joe Nation, a former Democratic assemblyman. He's now a Stanford public policy professor and heads a major public pension research project.

"But if you really care about things like social services and public education," he adds, "you have to be for pension reform."

That's because without lightening the pension burden on public treasuries, retiree costs will increasingly devour state and local tax dollars that should be funding government services such as education, healthcare and wildfire fighting.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-p...118-story.html


Meet The Los Angeles Firefighter Who Earned $300,000 In Overtime...By Working More Hours Than There Are In A Year

Firefighter Donn Thompson of Los Angeles earned some $300,000 in overtime in 2017, aside from his $92,000 salary. If that sounds like a lot of money in overtime, it is. In fact, as Transparent California reports, Thompson has pulled down $1 million in overtime since 2013. Eric Boehm of Reason.com explains:

Here's how the math breaks down. Thompson, like all firefighters in Los Angeles, works 2,912 hours every year. With a base salary of $92,000, that comes to an hourly rate of $31.60. That means Thompson would earn overtime pay at a rate of $47.40 per hour—that's one and a half times the base rate. But earning $302,000 at a rate of $47.40 per hour would require working more than 6,370 hours. Add that to the 2,912 hours he worked as a salaried employee, and you get more than 9,280 hours worked, despite the fact that there are only 8,760 hours in a year.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/30928...00-ben-shapiro

[jd3189]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Again, CA is "losing" middle class because they're transitioning to higher income households. CA is "losing" poor too, probably because they're transitioning to middle class.

A jurisdiction doesn't become "third world" because of higher-than-average income growth. What's happening in CA is pretty much ideal from an income growth perspective.

So is everyone in California virtually becoming richer? Is that what you are saying? Because the data and trends discussed in this thread don't seem to suggest that.

[jd3189]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

Yup.

The NYTimes highlighted the UC system...
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/09/1...y-machine.html

That was a great article. The UC system seemed to have started in a similar fashion to the public university system in Florida.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by jd3189

You guys realize low-skilled workers can be trained to do high-skilled work. It's called more education. Until the robots take over most industries, we can absorb more people to contribute to the economy. Yeah, some may or already have turned to crime, but that is usually a result of how we treat them before and after they come here.


As for California losing its middle class, I'm surprised that so many people here are okay with that. It would only be swell if most people were becoming wealthier and actually able to afford living there despite all the changes, but that's far from the truth.


A few weeks ago I went to the graduation of several of my good friends, including one from Central California. During a lunch at her house, her parents (who lived in Merced for decades) were talking about how even there it's getting too expensive and that they might consider moving to Nevada or out east in Tennessee where the graduation was taking place.


Without a decent middle class, an area will essentially be 3rd world. An ultra-rich place with extreme poverty not far away.

"Yeah, some may or already have turned to crime, but that is usually a result of how we treat them before and after they come here."

Absolutely wrong.

How on earth could "we" turn them to crime *before* they even get here? After?

Culture is the most important, albeit politically incorrect reason some turn to gangs and others don't. Asian gangs are tiny in comparison to Hispanic gangs, even with for controlling for their relative populations. Your comment seems to do what the Left has done for 6 decades and that is to excuse all bad behaviour from minorities and then blame the people of America. That isn't the case and the numbers prove that.

[Eightball]

Originally Posted by SLO

I have know quite a few retiring California pensioners flee the state to pay cash in another state and live fat off the pensions.

Yeah the pensions are mess and need to be cut soon. Luckily some cities throughout the state have started to do so and as you said, more will have to do soon as it is crowding out other priorities. Taking the pension to another state is adding insult to injury. There should be a law passed where if you live in a different state than the one you earned your pension in, you automatically receive, say, a 25% cut in your monthly benefit. This is desperately needed in Illinois as well.

[BrownTown]

Originally Posted by jd3189

You guys realize low-skilled workers can be trained to do high-skilled work. It's called more education. Until the robots take over most industries, we can absorb more people to contribute to the economy. Yeah, some may or already have turned to crime, but that is usually a result of how we treat them before and after they come here.

Even if it were as simple as just giving them more education they would need many years (if not a decade) on average when coming from sub-Saharan Africa. Unfortunately it's actually a lot worse than that because brain development only occurs at a young age and without the proper nutrition and stimulation when young these people's brains will never be capable for complex tasks needed in a high skilled job. The average IQ in sub-saharan Africa is only 85 so they will never be highly productive individuals no matter what education they are given. If you were bringing people over from India which is also having population issues you would be a lot better off, but would still need tons of additional education for them.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by Eightball

Yeah the pensions are mess and need to be cut soon. Luckily soon cities throughout the state have started to do so and as you said, more will have to do soon as it is crowding out other cities. Taking the pension to another state is adding insult to injury. There should be a law passed where if you live in a different state than the one you earned your pension in, you automatically receive, say, a 25% cut in your monthly benefit. This is desperately needed in Illinois as well.

When I was in real estate I was stunned when I met a guy from LA who was a recent retiree from the LAPD. His budget? 675k. This (and most certainly in 2013) was a huge sum of money for suburban Austin. This guy is living like a king on his police retirement.

[Eightball]

LAPD and LAFD are the worst abusers. Read this when you get a sec it is insanity. Many, many officers would enroll in a program where they get their pension as well full salary and then immediately go on disability (of course, many of the disability claims are fraudulent). Shit is outta control

http://www.latimes.com/local/califor...htmlstory.html

[pizzaguy]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

"Yeah, some may or already have turned to crime, but that is usually a result of how we treat them before and after they come here."

Absolutely wrong.

How on earth could "we" turn them to crime *before* they even get here? After?

Culture is the most important, albeit politically incorrect reason some turn to gangs and others don't. Asian gangs are tiny in comparison to Hispanic gangs, even with for controlling for their relative populations. Your comment seems to do what the Left has done for 6 decades and that is to excuse all bad behaviour from minorities and then blame the people of America. That isn't the case and the numbers prove that.

Racist nonsense

[SLO]

Originally Posted by Eightball

Yeah the pensions are mess and need to be cut soon. Luckily some cities throughout the state have started to do so and as you said, more will have to do soon as it is crowding out other priorities. Taking the pension to another state is adding insult to injury. There should be a law passed where if you live in a different state than the one you earned your pension in, you automatically receive, say, a 25% cut in your monthly benefit. This is desperately needed in Illinois as well.

The penalty would make sense to maybe an independent commission, the problem is the unions would never support it and they are basically negotiating with themselves because all of the government employees are in the same boat, looking to max out those pensions and make the mad dash the last five years of their careers to boost the pension as much as possible. It seems reform could only come by having independent outside review of these contracts

[CaliNative]

I've heard that Californians moving into a new state are often unwelcome, or face hostility. Is this because they are perceived to be the cause of soaring house prices and rents? Is it the "California culture" that is resented? Is it true that Californians are especially unwelcome in Oregon? Never had a problem in Nevada. half the people there are ex-Californios anyway. What about Texas? Austin is probably 1/5th California exile by now. Maybe in the depopulated regions of the "rust belt" Californians would be welcome? My goodness the house prices are cheap.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by pizzaguy

Racist nonsense

You literally contribute nothing to this site. You just make constant racist accusations or just demean people.

So is it racist if say we look at FBI crime reports and it shows that Chinese immigrants commit less crime than Hondorian?

When statistics make you racist, your country is doomed.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by CaliNative

I've heard that Californians moving into a new state are often unwelcome, or face hostility. Is this because they are perceived to be the cause of soaring house prices and rents? Is it the "California culture" that is resented? Is it true that Californians are especially unwelcome in Oregon? Never had a problem in Nevada. half the people there are ex-Californios anyway. What about Texas? Austin is probably 1/5th California exile by now. Maybe in the depopulated regions of the "rust belt" Californians would be welcome? My goodness the house prices are cheap.

Politically, we know Californians are more likely to be liberal, so theres some pushback there. However, in my personal experience as a Realtor in Austin back in 13-14' It was 100%(even if not completely true on the ground) that Californians *never* negotiated on prices, they paid full price, which emboldened sellers and screwed over the rest of buyers who could not work down prices anymore. My personal experience proved this to be truer than not, but its still silly to just blame Californians when there were so many other issues leading to higher prices.

But hey, having a scapegoat is always more fun.

[SLO]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

Politically, we know Californians are more likely to be liberal, so theres some pushback there. However, in my personal experience as a Realtor in Austin back in 13-14' It was 100%(even if not completely true on the ground) that Californians *never* negotiated on prices, they paid full price, which emboldened sellers and screwed over the rest of buyers who could not work down prices anymore. My personal experience proved this to be truer than not, but its still silly to just blame Californians when there were so many other issues leading to higher prices.

But hey, having a scapegoat is always more fun.

I think that’s true on prices, I built houses in the Ft Worth area for 15 years. Although there I would say that a majority of the ex-Californians I knew were conservative. It seemed a good portion moved for cost of living and political reasons, sort of a fed up with liberal politics mentality. Living where I do now, the realtor that sold us our house commented when I said we moved back from Texas “wow, you’re going the wrong direction aren’t you?” She said she had three current clients selling out to move to Texas. Two of which were sheriff deputies, most likely about to go on pensions.