Canadian Foreign Policy & Affairs II

[casper]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

It would seem that some low hanging fruit is the recommendation by General Eyre to invest in the GD plants in Quebec. Its a little shameful that the Pentagon has invested 60 Mill but our Government has not taken up the 400 Mill plan that NDHQ came up with. Canadian jobs and a real contribution to NATO and Ukraine shell stocks.

I think that is an obvious one.

The other one, is pre-Justin Trudeau Liberals have adopted an innovation focused agenda. I think we need to go back to that and also look at AI, cyber, space and submarines.

[O-tacular]

Sounds like the US just gave Ukraine a brigade's worth of small arms and ammunition seized from Iranian sources. Too bad there's no artillery shells to go with it.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Sounds like the US just gave Ukraine a brigade's worth of small arms and ammunition seized from Iranian sources. Too bad there's no artillery shells to go with it.

Which makes our claims insinuating that we are stepping up more than the US rather bizarre. Every American donation is literally more kit than we have given in total (or even could give). And yet Freeland was out there taking jabs at the Americans.

[O-tacular]

Out of curiosity do you know anything about why it's taking so long for the air defence systems we bought to be delivered? I know the Senators are being built and shipped as fast as possible, but have no idea whether our 8 Leopards are still running or were destroyed. What do you think we need to donate more of? Are we low on artillery shells or could we send more of those?

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Out of curiosity do you know anything about why it's taking so long for the air defence systems we bought to be delivered? I know the Senators are being built and shipped as fast as possible, but have no idea whether our 8 Leopards are still running or were destroyed. What do you think we need to donate more of? Are we low on artillery shells or could we send more of those?

I have read on Canadian army today that our strategic reserves have not been touched to help Ukraine but we have increased shell production from about 3,000 per month to 5,000. That includes all the different calibers of shells that the Canadian army needs. General Eyre gave a detailed plan to the Government to invest 400 Million in our Four General Dynamics plants outside Quebec City to greatly increase their production. However that type of production is clearly a very difficult thing to commit to for a Trudeau. The NASSAM system, that we have sent a cheque for, is supposedly tied up in the American procurement system as they were buying it on Canada's behalf. Tis a mystery TBH.

A missed opportunity with the recent Defence review was a commitment to replace the current Leopards and Lav's in Latvia with a solid purchase of new Leopards and CV-90's ( Brigades worth, 76 Tanks ,152 CV-90's ) and cascade our present Leo's to Ukraine. They did not do that but "will explore" . Can you hear that can getting kicked?

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

I have read on Canadian army today that our strategic reserves have not been touched to help Ukraine but we have increased shell production from about 3,000 per month to 5,000. That includes all the different calibers of shells that the Canadian army needs. General Eyre gave a detailed plan to the Government to invest 400 Million in our Four General Dynamics plants outside Quebec City to greatly increase their production. However that type of production is clearly a very difficult thing to commit to for a Trudeau. The NASSAM system, that we have sent a cheque for, is supposedly tied up in the American procurement system as they were buying it on Canada's behalf. Tis a mystery TBH.

A missed opportunity with the recent Defence review was a commitment to replace the current Leopards and Lav's in Latvia with a solid purchase of new Leopards and CV-90's ( Brigades worth, 76 Tanks ,152 CV-90's ) and cascade our present Leo's to Ukraine. They did not do that but "will explore" . Can you hear that can getting kicked?

This not moving forward is shameful. A big chunk of this would directly create economic benefits to the region and country and the capacity given world dynamics might pay for itself many times over. Slow decision making and lack of initiative that is the biggest achilles heal of this government.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Out of curiosity do you know anything about why it's taking so long for the air defence systems we bought to be delivered?

I assume the OEM is probably backed up in the US. Not only is NASAMs important for Ukraine, it's gotten popular for other buyers since this war. And unfortunately orders for Ukraine aren't always getting priority.

Originally Posted by O-tacular

What do you think we need to donate more of? Are we low on artillery shells or could we send more of those?

We should acknowledge this has become a long war and we should set up to help Ukraine win and then to equip them after the war to deter. To me this means ramping production in areas we have competence and capabilities.

1) Armoured trucks. Roshel can ramp up even more given funding. And they are a sleeper hit in this war. I know plenty of folks thinking we should buy thousands of these for our own reserves and the regular army rear echelon. There's some other companies beyond Roshel too.

2) AFV/IFV. We gave them a handful of ACSVs. I think we should ramp production up and start giving them enough ACSVs and LAVs to equip a brigade per year. This is great for high skill jobs in London. And great for promotion of the LAV. And great for Ukraine.

3) Ammo. This has been discussed to death. $400M is small potatoes. Almost criminal the government will penny pinch on this.

4) Civilian pattern vehicles. Regular old semis, pickups, cube vans and ATVs are still needed in the country. We produce them. Could we strike a deal with OEMs to sell us their low demand period production at a discount and ship that to Ukraine?

5) Sensors. Wescam makes some of the best EO/IR sensors in the world. We should be working on how to mount these on armoured vehicles and new drone models anyway. So good time.


More off the wall. I wish the defence review had made some hard decisions. For example, if we're going to divest tanks, might as well give them to Ukraine. Their line about "exploring a replacement" is ridiculous. They haven't done the work to look at whether we should continue with MBTs, go to light tanks or even divest armour for other capabilities (helps for example). I personally think heavy armour is pointless for Canada. But whether we should have it or not, should have been part of the review. Likewise, the much hated TAPV fleet. That's 500 vehicles that are newer, in good shape and don't fit our doctrine or where we're going well. Deciding what we need and don't need would have freed up resources for Ukraine. Instead they kicked the can down the road. I still think the next government should do a quick 6 month divestment review and if there's anything we can ditch that should go to Ukraine send it. Yeah, chunks of the army might be driving pretend kit for a while. So be it. This helps Ukraine and with our personnel shortage might be nice to tank crewmen and armoured officers doing basic training anyway.

I also think we can do a lot more for training Ukrainians while helping ourselves. We have to RSVP training anyway. Let's aim to go bigger and build a training system that can start including Ukrainians in our regular training system especially for skilled trades like pilots, electronics techs, etc. This way we can help the Ukraine of 2 years from now, while the Americans help the Ukraine of today.

All of the above takes some funding, but mostly sustained commitment from the government that goes beyond just rhetoric.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

I have read on Canadian army today that our strategic reserves have not been touched to help Ukraine but we have increased shell production from about 3,000 per month to 5,000. That includes all the different calibers of shells that the Canadian army needs. General Eyre gave a detailed plan to the Government to invest 400 Million in our Four General Dynamics plants outside Quebec City to greatly increase their production. However that type of production is clearly a very difficult thing to commit to for a Trudeau. The NASSAM system, that we have sent a cheque for, is supposedly tied up in the American procurement system as they were buying it on Canada's behalf. Tis a mystery TBH.

A missed opportunity with the recent Defence review was a commitment to replace the current Leopards and Lav's in Latvia with a solid purchase of new Leopards and CV-90's ( Brigades worth, 76 Tanks ,152 CV-90's ) and cascade our present Leo's to Ukraine. They did not do that but "will explore" . Can you hear that can getting kicked?

Why?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Why?

The government has at times insinuated that the investment isn't worthwhile because there won't be a market for the output in a few years. You can read between the lines what that says.

Mostly though, it's incredible that they can find money for virtually any excuse to cut cheques to some voter group they think they can get. And those programs cost billions. But $400M (0.09% of the federal budget) gets all kinds of scrutiny and excuses.

[goodgrowth]

Biden Administration right now: "Remember 2 weeks ago when all we had to do was tell Israel to stop bombing Palestine, aaaahhhh those were the days"

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The government has at times insinuated that the investment isn't worthwhile because there won't be a market for the output in a few years. You can read between the lines what that says.

Mostly though, it's incredible that they can find money for virtually any excuse to cut cheques to some voter group they think they can get. And those programs cost billions. But $400M (0.09% of the federal budget) gets all kinds of scrutiny and excuses.

I think the peacenik voices at cabinet table get supported by those that feel burned by Saudi Lav debacle. They imagine having to block sales for shells to the next hotspot where black and white isn’t so clear.

[savevp]

Originally Posted by goodgrowth

Biden Administration right now: "Remember 2 weeks ago when all we had to do was tell Israel to stop bombing Palestine, aaaahhhh those were the days"

If Israel responds, before long it'll be about the colonial white oppressors terrorising the poor Iranians. A little bit tougher to mould Iran into the victimhood narrative, but the mobs outside the Jewish hospitals will find a way.

In all honesty though, the real test over coming hours is whether Iran does anything truly escalatory, or whether drones that Israel can mostly intercept will be enough of a facesaving measure to pacify the domestic hardliners in Tehran. It does seem like the Iranians are making it clear they aren't targeting civilians (unlike their proxies) and it seems a relatively light attack compared to what it could be.

Iran also made it clear the attack was finished, looks like one injured in Israel, potentially by Hezbollah rocket fire. Minimal damage from Iranian rockets and drones. Seems the Iranians don't want to escalate any further than required, hopefully Israel will keep their response similarly measured.

[Hybrid247]

It seems to me this is exactly what Netanyahu wants. His grip on power is entirely dependent on wartime politics at this point. It's hard not to see the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus as a deliberate attempt to force a response out of Iran, and a subsequent escalation that would force the US to get involved. Israel's rogue actions as of late don't seem to be in the interest of anyone except Netanyahu.

I don't mean to be an alarmist, but I can't help but feel the world is at a dangerous crossroads right now. Depending on the US and Israel's response, this could very easily escalate into a major war that would make the Iraq war look like street fight. I have no doubts China would feel a lot more confident in attempting a takeover of Taiwan if that were to happen, as dealing with China and Iran simultaneously in two separate theatres would likely push US forces to its limits. And who knows how that would embolden Russia to act in eastern Europe.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Hybrid247

It seems to me this is exactly what Netanyahu wants. His grip on power is entirely dependent on wartime politics at this point. It's hard not to see the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus as a deliberate attempt to force a response out of Iran, and a subsequent escalation that would force the US to get involved. Israel's rogue actions as of late don't seem to be in the interest of anyone except Netanyahu.

I don't mean to be an alarmist, but I can't help but feel the world is at a dangerous crossroads right now. Depending on the US and Israel's response, this could very easily escalate into a major war that would make the Iraq war look like street fight. I have no doubts China would feel a lot more confident in attempting a takeover of Taiwan if that were to happen, as dealing with China and Iran simultaneously in two separate theatres would likely push US forces to its limits. And who knows how that would embolden Russia to act in eastern Europe.

Eh, I'm not even sure it's a crossroads as much as a new normal, as sad as that sounds.

Countries pitted against each other in tit-for-tat engagements to distract from the underlying malaise. Breathless reporting and furor for the purpose of keeping the people distracted. Suck the oxygen out of the room for other debates.

We have always been at war with Eastasia.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by Hybrid247

It seems to me this is exactly what Netanyahu wants. His grip on power is entirely dependent on wartime politics at this point. It's hard not to see the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus as a deliberate attempt to force a response out of Iran, and a subsequent escalation that would force the US to get involved. Israel's rogue actions as of late don't seem to be in the interest of anyone except Netanyahu.

I don't mean to be an alarmist, but I can't help but feel the world is at a dangerous crossroads right now. Depending on the US and Israel's response, this could very easily escalate into a major war that would make the Iraq war look like street fight. I have no doubts China would feel a lot more confident in attempting a takeover of Taiwan if that were to happen, as dealing with China and Iran simultaneously in two separate theatres would likely push US forces to its limits. And who knows how that would embolden Russia to act in eastern Europe.

I completely agree and have thought the same thing. Netanyahu wants this to escalate to force US support and drown out the criticism of his bloodbath in Gaza. I’m sure the US sees this too. Hopefully Biden has a bigger stick in private than his vague criticisms at press conferences.

[whatnext]

A very interesting take. Do you all agree?

Looking at today’s wars as local issues is a huge mistake. There is one war and it is global
Iran, North Korea and China are Russia’s arsenals of autocracy
DAVID AXE
15 April 2024

Like it or not, Russia’s wider war in Ukraine is part of a world war. A world war pitting a quartet of authoritarian states against the world’s democracies. It’s Russia and Russia’s allies – China, Iran and North Korea – against Ukraine and its allies. These are most of the Western democracies and, in fits and starts, the United States.

The problem, for the democracies, is that only the autocracies are acting like the war is what it is: global.

Unless and until this changes, Ukraine will be at a disadvantage. If and when it does change, Russia could suffer a swift and lasting defeat. A defeat that might teach the other autocracies a lesson or two.

...late last year, North Korea stepped up to solve one of Russia’s most serious problems: a shortage of artillery shells. Russians batteries fired tens of thousands of shells a day in the early weeks of the war – a rate of fire that steadily decreased as the war dragged on and munitions stockpiles ran low.

By mid-2023, Ukrainian forces actually enjoyed a firepower advantage over Russian forces – and for one simple reason. “The West provided more artillery ammunition to Ukraine than Russia received from its partners,” according to Frontelligence Insight, a Ukrainian analysis group. ...

....This week, officials with the administration of US president Joe Biden told the Associated Press that China was providing 90 percent of Russia’s microelectronics imports and 70 percent of its tooling imports. If, during World War II, the United States was the United Kingdom’s arsenal of democracy, today Iran, North Korea and China are Russia’s arsenals of autocracy...(bold mine)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...a-north-korea/

[Truenorth00]

100% agree. And sadly the autocrats are winning.

[O-tacular]

I agree those 4 are working as a de facto coalition. That said there's also no denying that Israel is basically operating as a rogue state right now and is being led by a politically and criminally compromised leader who is itching to start a larger scale war to avoid the consequences of losing power. Netanyahu is basically just Israeli Trump.

[1overcosc]

The difference is that it's literally just Netanyahu. Take him out of the picture and a lot of the problems with Israeli policy literally disappear instantly. Whoever replaces him will also be right wing but, critically, will form a coalition with the centrists instead of the far right (who until Netanyahu was cornered by them, were subjected to cordon sanitaire by the rest of the political spectrum).

The problems with Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea are much bigger than the problems with one leader. Israel is still fundamentally a Western ally, crazy PM notwithstanding.

[P'tit Renard]

With the likely reelection of Trump at this point, hard to see how this situation doesn't seriously test US-Canada relations or lead to serious repercussions for Canada...Trump will likely push for the Northern Wall. Another casualty of Trudeau's misguided TFW/International student policies:



Sharp rise in Indians detained at US border with Canada - with number caught attempting to sneak across already 50% higher than last year
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ocumented.html