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  #1381  
Old Posted Jul 15, 2018, 12:43 PM
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  #1382  
Old Posted Jul 15, 2018, 9:09 PM
Rational Plan3 Rational Plan3 is offline
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Originally Posted by electricron View Post
Atlanta to Charolette is brought up frequently here, here’s how they stack up population (CSA) wise.
Atlanta 6,162,195
Charolette 2,632,249
It’s 258 rail miles between them, a HSR train averaging 125 mph will take around two hours. How many trains Charolette could support today would be my major difficulty, would it be enough trains to make a dedicated HSR line worthwhile? Could North and South Carolinia statehouses join Georgia to subsidize this HSR line?
Well London to Newcastle (Conurbation 1 million) is roughly the same distance in the UK on a track that does not exceed 125 mph. That market can sustain a half hourly train, plus a few extra peak services. One an express with 3 stops (2 hours 50 minutes) and one calling at 7 stops ( 3 hours 10 minutes). Non of the cities between exceed 250,000 most are much smaller. Even a conventional train between those cities should be able to sustain an hourly train quite quickly.
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  #1383  
Old Posted Jul 16, 2018, 5:01 AM
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Originally Posted by Rational Plan3 View Post
Well London to Newcastle (Conurbation 1 million) is roughly the same distance in the UK on a track that does not exceed 125 mph. That market can sustain a half hourly train, plus a few extra peak services. One an express with 3 stops (2 hours 50 minutes) and one calling at 7 stops ( 3 hours 10 minutes). Non of the cities between exceed 250,000 most are much smaller. Even a conventional train between those cities should be able to sustain an hourly train quite quickly.
Atlanta would really need a downtown station for this to be viable, I think.
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  #1384  
Old Posted Jul 16, 2018, 1:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Rational Plan3 View Post
Well London to Newcastle (Conurbation 1 million) is roughly the same distance in the UK on a track that does not exceed 125 mph. That market can sustain a half hourly train, plus a few extra peak services. One an express with 3 stops (2 hours 50 minutes) and one calling at 7 stops ( 3 hours 10 minutes). Non of the cities between exceed 250,000 most are much smaller. Even a conventional train between those cities should be able to sustain an hourly train quite quickly.
Let's review the respected city pairs population again....
Atlanta 6,162,195
Charolette 2,632,249
Subtotal 8,794,444
Number of cities along the route that Amtrak stops at presently is 6
Gastonia, NC 75,536
Spartanburg, SC 37,876
Greenville, SC 67,453
Clemson, SC 16,058
Toccoa, GA 8,412
Gainesville, GA 40,000
Subtotal 245,335

London 13,709,000
Newcastle 1,599,000
Subtotal 15,308,000
Number of cities along the route large enough to warrant a train station as reported by you is 7.
Per Wiki, 15,308,000
"The main line between London King's Cross and Edinburgh Waverley stations, via (1)Stevenage, (2)Peterborough, (3)Grantham, (4)Newark North Gate, (5)Retford, (6)Doncaster, (7)York, (8)Northallerton, (9)Darlington, (10)Durham, Newcastle, Morpeth, Alnmouth, Berwick-upon-Tweed and Dunbar."
There's 10 stations between London and Newcastle, I haven't the slightest idea which 7 the train stations your trains stop at, so let's subtotal all 10.
Stevenage 87,100.
Peterborough 183,631
Grantham 44,580
Newark North Gate 27,700
Retford 22,013
Doncaster 158,141
York 208,079
Northallerton 16,832
Darlington 105,564
Durham 65,549
Subtotal 749,189

If you can't see the difference between 8,794,444 and 15,308,000; and the differences between 245,335 and 749,189; you need to learn to count. In both the terminating cities, and the intermediate cities, your train in England runs through cities and towns with two to three times more population.

You have to look at all the different aspects of a rail line from all points of views when comparing the viability of different rail lines to one another.
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  #1385  
Old Posted Jul 16, 2018, 6:51 PM
Rational Plan3 Rational Plan3 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by electricron View Post
Let's review the respected city pairs population again....
Atlanta 6,162,195
Charolette 2,632,249
Subtotal 8,794,444
Number of cities along the route that Amtrak stops at presently is 6
Gastonia, NC 75,536
Spartanburg, SC 37,876
Greenville, SC 67,453
Clemson, SC 16,058
Toccoa, GA 8,412
Gainesville, GA 40,000
Subtotal 245,335

London 13,709,000
Newcastle 1,599,000
Subtotal 15,308,000
Number of cities along the route large enough to warrant a train station as reported by you is 7.
Per Wiki, 15,308,000
"The main line between London King's Cross and Edinburgh Waverley stations, via (1)Stevenage, (2)Peterborough, (3)Grantham, (4)Newark North Gate, (5)Retford, (6)Doncaster, (7)York, (8)Northallerton, (9)Darlington, (10)Durham, Newcastle, Morpeth, Alnmouth, Berwick-upon-Tweed and Dunbar."
There's 10 stations between London and Newcastle, I haven't the slightest idea which 7 the train stations your trains stop at, so let's subtotal all 10.
Stevenage 87,100.
Peterborough 183,631
Grantham 44,580
Newark North Gate 27,700
Retford 22,013
Doncaster 158,141
York 208,079
Northallerton 16,832
Darlington 105,564
Durham 65,549
Subtotal 749,189

If you can't see the difference between 8,794,444 and 15,308,000; and the differences between 245,335 and 749,189; you need to learn to count. In both the terminating cities, and the intermediate cities, your train in England runs through cities and towns with two to three times more population.

You have to look at all the different aspects of a rail line from all points of views when comparing the viability of different rail lines to one another.
That metro population is for Newcastle is a gross exaggeration. To be that high it needs to include most of the counties of Durham and Northumberland. Sunderland is served by it's own direct trains these days. Sunderland is usually lumped in with the 1 million population for Tyne & Wear (which Newcastle is the most important, but not much larger than the other cities).

I also said it would not be hard for Atlanta Charlotte to support half the level of service that Newcastle does. It also matter how many cars are in each train, In the UK it has been that intercity travel is served by relatively short trains compared to some on the European mainline, the difference being that trains between british cities are much more frequent.

An hourly 6 car train could easily be filled, as long as it was not hobbled by those useless US passenger train practices ( I mean, a conductor every two cars?) it could prove quite profitable.
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  #1386  
Old Posted Jul 16, 2018, 7:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Rational Plan3 View Post
An hourly 6 car train could easily be filled, as long as it was not hobbled by those useless US passenger train practices ( I mean, a conductor every two cars?) it could prove quite profitable.
All depends on the cost to build it. The US isn't exactly good at building rail cheaply although the cheaper land, labor costs and weaker unions in the South would certainly make the cost per mile much cheaper than California.
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  #1387  
Old Posted Jul 17, 2018, 12:17 AM
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Originally Posted by Rational Plan3 View Post
That metro population is for Newcastle is a gross exaggeration. To be that high it needs to include most of the counties of Durham and Northumberland. Sunderland is served by it's own direct trains these days. Sunderland is usually lumped in with the 1 million population for Tyne & Wear (which Newcastle is the most important, but not much larger than the other cities).
I don’t invent data, here’s my source for Newcastle population.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcastle_upon_Tyne
Specifically:
Population (mid-2017 est.)[2]
• City 295,800 (ranked 40th district)
• Urban (Tyneside) 879,996 (ranked 7th)
• Metro (Tyneside–Wearside) 1,650,000 (ranked 6th)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcastle_upon_Tyne

I almost always use Metro or CSA statistics because it includes the population of all the city’s suburbs.
Charolette metro per Wiki:
Population (2016 Census estimate)
• Urban 1,249,442
• Metro 2,474,314
• CSA 2,632,249
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Char...ropolitan_area • City
Population (2010 Census)
• City 731,424
• Urban 1,249,442
• Metro 2,474,314
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Char...North_Carolina

It would be very, very unfair to compare city statistics to metro statistics. I’m trying to compare apples to apples, not apples with oranges. If you prefer the city statistics over metro statistics, let’s lower all the city statistics.
Charolette is now 731,424
Atlanta is now 420,003
London is now 8,787,892
Newcastle is now 295,800
Therefore, the relative city pairs population is now
London + Newcastle = 9,083 ,692
Atlanta + Charolette = 1,151,427
So what was a two to three times population advantage for the UK train is now an eight to nine times population advantage.

I still think my earlier comparison using metro statistics was more fair.

For those unfamiliar with America’s CSA statistic:
CSAs represent multiple metropolitan or micropolitan areas that have an employment interchange of at least 15%.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comb...atistical_area

If at least 15% of workers living in a suburban city commute to work in the central city, or vice versa, it’s included in the central city’s CSA.

Last edited by electricron; Jul 17, 2018 at 12:37 AM.
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  #1388  
Old Posted Jul 17, 2018, 6:38 PM
Rational Plan3 Rational Plan3 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by electricron View Post
I don’t invent data, here’s my source for Newcastle population.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcastle_upon_Tyne
Specifically:
Population (mid-2017 est.)[2]
• City 295,800 (ranked 40th district)
• Urban (Tyneside) 879,996 (ranked 7th)
• Metro (Tyneside–Wearside) 1,650,000 (ranked 6th)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcastle_upon_Tyne

I almost always use Metro or CSA statistics because it includes the population of all the city’s suburbs.
Charolette metro per Wiki:
Population (2016 Census estimate)
• Urban 1,249,442
• Metro 2,474,314
• CSA 2,632,249
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Char...ropolitan_area • City
Population (2010 Census)
• City 731,424
• Urban 1,249,442
• Metro 2,474,314
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Char...North_Carolina

It would be very, very unfair to compare city statistics to metro statistics. I’m trying to compare apples to apples, not apples with oranges. If you prefer the city statistics over metro statistics, let’s lower all the city statistics.
Charolette is now 731,424
Atlanta is now 420,003
London is now 8,787,892
Newcastle is now 295,800
Therefore, the relative city pairs population is now
London + Newcastle = 9,083 ,692
Atlanta + Charolette = 1,151,427
So what was a two to three times population advantage for the UK train is now an eight to nine times population advantage.

I still think my earlier comparison using metro statistics was more fair.

For those unfamiliar with America’s CSA statistic:
CSAs represent multiple metropolitan or micropolitan areas that have an employment interchange of at least 15%.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comb...atistical_area

If at least 15% of workers living in a suburban city commute to work in the central city, or vice versa, it’s included in the central city’s CSA.
The populations of the five councils of Tyne & Wear barely break a million people, they have therefore added some surrounding counties. We shall have agree to disagree, but I can't see why a hundred mile an hour train service supplied by a DMU train with 5 or 6 carriages and just one on board conductor, plus a refreshment seller, could not support an hourly service after a year or two. Ditch some of the smaller towns that do not have a decent population in the surrounding county and the train will still get there in a reasonable time. Even a two hourly service would be a good start for an intercity line.

But of course that would require a major change in politics in America, more than anything else. The USA is a big place but the only place that would struggle to support many services are West of the Mississippi. Texas and California excepted. Apart from some of the denser spots I don't see the point in putting on services that span more than a state or two.
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  #1389  
Old Posted Jul 17, 2018, 11:33 PM
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You could potentially justify extending the NEC to Atlanta via Richmond -> Raleigh -> Charlotte but not all the way to Florida. There's simply too much nothingness along I-95
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  #1390  
Old Posted Jul 18, 2018, 4:59 PM
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You could potentially justify extending the NEC to Atlanta via Richmond -> Raleigh -> Charlotte but not all the way to Florida. There's simply too much nothingness along I-95
Well that just means you can let 'er rip at 220 for that stretch. Or you can stop at stations near Charleston, Hilton Head, and Savannah - major tourist destinations and seat fillers.
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  #1391  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2018, 3:12 AM
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Well that just means you can let 'er rip at 220 for that stretch. Or you can stop at stations near Charleston, Hilton Head, and Savannah - major tourist destinations and seat fillers.
High speed rail only works in the mid-range distances. Too short and a car is easier, but too long and a plane is easier. The long gaps along I-95 are too long for HSR to be highly effective. It's not even close really.
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  #1392  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2018, 5:09 PM
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Does high speed rail not work in China? The longest high speed line in the world there is longer than the distance from NYC to Miami.
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  #1393  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2018, 10:13 PM
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Does high speed rail not work in China? The longest high speed line in the world there is longer than the distance from NYC to Miami.
HSR Line. Can one ride the same train in the same seat the entire way? If one can, how many trains a day travel the entire way? How many trains turn around at intermediate cities?
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  #1394  
Old Posted Aug 8, 2018, 8:10 PM
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Hi all,

Brightline has potential for Tampa International Airport station.

https://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay...-talks-on.html
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  #1395  
Old Posted Aug 8, 2018, 11:23 PM
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Hi all,

Brightline has potential for Tampa International Airport station.

https://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay...-talks-on.html
Wow, another paywall news story I do not wish to pay to read.
Was it impossible for you to include a short synopsis what was in it?

Tampa’s airport is on the opposite side of Tampa’s downtown than Orlando. Do you really believe Brightline will want to extend their trains beyond downtown Tampa?
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  #1396  
Old Posted Aug 9, 2018, 1:26 PM
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Delete - link failed
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  #1397  
Old Posted Aug 9, 2018, 4:02 PM
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Does high speed rail not work in China? The longest high speed line in the world there is longer than the distance from NYC to Miami.
China has like 5 times the density, low car ownership, govt. highly incentivizing HSR and highly disincentiving car use.

So yes, it can work, but in the U.S. context. Even something like Brightline won't exist in 5 years. It will either be govt. rail (something like Amtrak) or gone.
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  #1398  
Old Posted Aug 10, 2018, 2:41 AM
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Wow, another paywall news story I do not wish to pay to read.
Was it impossible for you to include a short synopsis what was in it?

Tampa’s airport is on the opposite side of Tampa’s downtown than Orlando. Do you really believe Brightline will want to extend their trains beyond downtown Tampa?
Downtown Tampa isn't a major draw like downtown Miami is. Just like with Orlando, Brightline probably stands to earn more revenue by serving the airport in Tampa than the downtown. If they have to pick one, it's probably gonna be the airport - especially since Tampa already has an APM to a remote parking site, so the tracks don't have to get to the core terminal area.

However, unlike in Orlando, Tampa does not present an either/or for station locations. Iin Tampa the easiest right-of-way, I-4, passes along the edge of downtown, so they can add a downtown stop fairly easily, and it will sit adjacent to the city's bus hub.
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Last edited by ardecila; Aug 10, 2018 at 3:05 AM.
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  #1399  
Old Posted Aug 16, 2018, 1:11 AM
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tampa_Union_Station
this is location of tampa brightline station near/next to new 800 million Rays stadium
this is tampa station location
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  #1400  
Old Posted Aug 30, 2018, 10:44 PM
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