Queen's Park Politics

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Docere

Joe Oliver lost the nomination in York Centre:

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/01/15/forme...nation-battle/

Not that it makes a big difference since I can't see that seat not go Liberal.

[Loco101]

There are lots of Liberal supporters out there but most have been very silent.

[jammer139]

As with the last prov election it's about the Toronto ridings. If you can't win some of those it doesn't matter what you do elsewhere in Ontario.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by jammer139

As with the last prov election it's about the Toronto ridings. If you can't win some of those it doesn't matter what you do elsewhere in Ontario.

Well the Liberals did win a number of seats outside the GTA but you're right that the GTA is key.

I also agree that if the NDP doesn't do well then it will only help the Liberals again. Nobody is excited about Patrick Brown and there really isn't a popular alternative to Wynne and the governing Liberals.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

The biggest concern for Wynne/Liberals is having a fellow Liberal government in Ottawa. Ontario has a near perfect record over the decades of voting in the opposite party governing in Ottawa.

Fed/prov since 60s..........
Pearson/Davis, Trudeau/Davis, Mulroney/Peterson, Mulroney/Rae, Chretien/Harris,
Harper/McGuinty, Harper/Wynne, Trudeau/?

Yes, you're right about voting in opposite parties. I was very surprised to see the Wynne government win a majority in 2014 and then Trudeau doing the same thing federally the next year.

There was a short time between 2003 and 2005 where Paul Martin was PM and Dalton McGuinty was Premier. Although it was a minority government for Martin.

I want to predict a minority government for the next provincial election (either Liberal or PC) but that would probably need a stronger NDP which is hard to imagine. But way too early to predict.

[north 42]

I wonder how different the province's situation would be had the Liberals voted for Sandra Pupatello instead of Wynne to be Premier?

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by north 42

I wonder how different the province's situation would be had the Liberals voted for Sandra Pupatello instead of Wynne to be Premier?

Like McGuinty, Pupatello is more of a right-leaning Liberal, as opposed to Wynne who is a left-leaning Liberal. A big part of the Liberal victory in 2014 stemmed from Wynne moving the party leftward to steal votes from the NDP. The more small-c conservative government Pupatello would have probably lead would have had a hard time doing that and it would have left many progressives supporting the NDP, splitting the vote. 2014 could very well have been a Liberal minority or possibly a PC minority under Pupatello for this reason.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by vid

Polls indicate they're more popular, but I am willing to bet that those polls are just as accurate as all the others and that come voting day, people will hesitate to mark an X beside the PC candidates

There's already some signs pointing to that being the case. Back in November, Nanos did a poll that showed the PC lead being much smaller than the other pollsters said it was. This is significant given that Nanos is by far the most accurate pollster.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

There's already some signs pointing to that being the case. Back in November, Nanos did a poll that showed the PC lead being much smaller than the other pollsters said it was. This is significant given that Nanos is by far the most accurate pollster.

I agree that Nanos is much more accurate. I was looking back at the polls before the 2011 election and they were pretty crazy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontari...election,_2011

At the beginning of the campaign almost everyone thought the PCs would win. The McGuinty Liberals ended up with a minority win and were just one seat shy of a majority! There was a huge amount of McGuinty-bashing by Hudak and the PCs actually helped the Liberals by doing that. Hudak really annoyed a lot of voters. Pretty much the same thing happened in 2014 with Wynne. Now it will be interesting to see if Patrick Brown does that or actually focuses on his own platform if he ever has one.

[Loco101]

Check out this interview with both Patrick Brown and Christine Elliott: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0C0SKqNdSKM

Steve Paikin keeps asking Patrick Brown if he has taken a stance on anything! Christine Elliott knew that hydro would be a big issue in 2018 and she had a plan.

Also check out Brown's views against the sex-ed curriculum and how he opposed cap and trade in 2015! Now he's saying he supports both of those things. But where does he really stand on anything?!?

[ssiguy]

Wynne does have a federal Liberal government as a negative impact on her chances but there will also finally be some good news to announce before the writ is dropped...........a balanced budget, opening/near completion of Spadina ext, KWC Ion LRT, Ottawa's Confederation line, more GO service, funding announcement on London SHIFT, a net migration rate for the first time in about 15 years, and low unemployment.

The last 3 effects everyone but the prior infrastructure iniatives are very significant. Wynne need Toronto and the GTA but also the other urban votes in the other major cities of Ottawa, Hamilton, London, KWC. The North will probably go mostly NDP like it always has, and small town/rural will be Conservative, but the battle will be in the total GTA and the other major urban centers that hold a lot of seats.

Torontonians rarely pull themselves away from the mirror long enough to notice there is a whole province out there an the GTA still represents less than half the province's population.

[Loco101]

Who is the company that did this poll?

52% in Northern Ontario support the PCs!?!??! WOW!!! Too funny.

https://www.campaignresearch.ca/feb-...ntario-ballot/

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Who is the company that did this poll?

52% in Northern Ontario support the PCs!?!??! WOW!!! Too funny.

https://www.campaignresearch.ca/feb-...ntario-ballot/

Most polls done in the last two years show the PCs ahead in Northern Ontario, actually. That said, the sample sizes used up there are always very small.

[BretttheRiderFan]

What is the Ontario NDP's position on federal carbon pricing?

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by BretttheRiderFan

What is the Ontario NDP's position on federal carbon pricing?

I don't think I've heard one from them. Their caucus was divided on the Ontario Liberal Party's cap and trade bill. Judging by Horwath's typical stances on these things I imagine she supports carbon pricing but with has more of an issue with the use of revenues for green initiatives (which is what Ontario's plan does).

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Most polls done in the last two years show the PCs ahead in Northern Ontario, actually. That said, the sample sizes used up there are always very small.

Well the poll results are not an accurate reflection. I did look and many of the polling companies will group in parts of central Ontario with the North. (Muskoka, Parry Sound, Renfrew and even Bruce, Grey and Simcoe Counties!! Those areas tend to have extremely high levels of support for the PCs.

The approval rate of Patrick Brown is 11% in Northern Ontario according to this same poll, the lowest in the province which doesn't surprise me but seems to show how this poll isn't one to be trusted.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Well the poll results are not an accurate reflection. I did look and many of the polling companies will group in parts of central Ontario with the North. (Muskoka, Parry Sound, Renfrew and even Bruce, Grey and Simcoe Counties!! Those areas tend to have extremely high levels of support for the PCs.

The approval rate of Patrick Brown is 11% in Northern Ontario according to this same poll, the lowest in the province which doesn't surprise me but seems to show how this poll isn't one to be trusted.

That poll doesn't seem particularly trustworthy in general. The numbers are too heavily skewed and the age/region/income divides look kinda goofy.

[toaster]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Well the poll results are not an accurate reflection. I did look and many of the polling companies will group in parts of central Ontario with the North. (Muskoka, Parry Sound, Renfrew and even Bruce, Grey and Simcoe Counties!! Those areas tend to have extremely high levels of support for the PCs.

The approval rate of Patrick Brown is 11% in Northern Ontario according to this same poll, the lowest in the province which doesn't surprise me but seems to show how this poll isn't one to be trusted.

Interesting.

I'm curious to find out where you think Gilles Bisson will run if Timmins - James Bay does get split in two. It would be a much safer seat to run in the Far North, as Timmins proper is quite Liberal.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Well the poll results are not an accurate reflection. I did look and many of the polling companies will group in parts of central Ontario with the North. (Muskoka, Parry Sound, Renfrew and even Bruce, Grey and Simcoe Counties!! Those areas tend to have extremely high levels of support for the PCs.

The approval rate of Patrick Brown is 11% in Northern Ontario according to this same poll, the lowest in the province which doesn't surprise me but seems to show how this poll isn't one to be trusted.

In Northern Ontario I don't think any of the leaders are particularly popular. I would suspect "none of the above" would get a majority - not just plurality - opinion there in terms of best Premier and preferred leader.

[vid]

None of the leaders are from here. The days of Mike Harris, Lyn McLoed and Howard Hampton (all three from Northern Ontario, including two from Northwestern Ontario) are gone now, and it will probably be a long time before we see leaders from this region again unless Gilles Bisson ends up replacing Horwath.