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  #1341  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2021, 3:08 AM
JollyvilleJ-Rad JollyvilleJ-Rad is online now
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https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/n...shut-down.html

"...Site selectors and economic development experts told ABJ last month that the brutal weather conditions that Texans experienced earlier this month likely won't pose a threat, at least in the short term, to Austin's growing reputation as a magnet for business. But there could be a long-term impact if nothing is done on the state level to make the electrical grid more resilient..."

-"What the weeks-long shutdown of Samsung, NXP semiconductor fabs mean for those companies," Mike Cronin, ABJ - 3/5/21
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  #1342  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2021, 4:30 AM
We vs us We vs us is offline
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Originally Posted by JollyvilleJ-Rad View Post
https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/n...shut-down.html

"...Site selectors and economic development experts told ABJ last month that the brutal weather conditions that Texans experienced earlier this month likely won't pose a threat, at least in the short term, to Austin's growing reputation as a magnet for business. But there could be a long-term impact if nothing is done on the state level to make the electrical grid more resilient..."

-"What the weeks-long shutdown of Samsung, NXP semiconductor fabs mean for those companies," Mike Cronin, ABJ - 3/5/21
I'm not a site selection guy but it's not hard to see that the grid failure isn't necessarily a one off, and has the potential to repeat unless major steps are taken to stabilize it. I personally would also wonder about the quality of governance of the state, and their willingness to address difficult problems head on, but I'm not convinced corporate America really digs that deeply in to the issue, or will ask questions that are that thorny.
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  #1343  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2021, 7:00 AM
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KevinFromTexas KevinFromTexas is offline
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Seeing that fire this afternoon along I-35 next to downtown, really just shows how bad things could have been had the power been out longer. No power means no water. The fire department would have been helpless against it. Every faucet in our house was down to a trickle even though we didn't have any busted pipes. I would imagine the fire hydrants were the same, which is really spooky. The night that we started having that freezing rain, we kicked on a heater that had some dust on it, and it set off our smoke alarms. My nerves were already rattled knowing how serious the situation might be with the power and water.
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  #1344  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2021, 5:12 PM
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East7thStreet East7thStreet is offline
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Originally Posted by We vs us View Post
I'm not a site selection guy but it's not hard to see that the grid failure isn't necessarily a one off, and has the potential to repeat unless major steps are taken to stabilize it. I personally would also wonder about the quality of governance of the state, and their willingness to address difficult problems head on, but I'm not convinced corporate America really digs that deeply in to the issue, or will ask questions that are that thorny.
This weather event was once a 200 year+ thing. The quality of the governance of our state is one of the main reasons business has flourished in Texas for the past 100 years. Corporate America has billions on the line when looking at these issues and makes their decisions accordingly.
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  #1345  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2021, 6:59 PM
shoreditch shoreditch is offline
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Originally Posted by East7thStreet View Post
This weather event was once a 200 year+ thing. The quality of the governance of our state is one of the main reasons business has flourished in Texas for the past 100 years. Corporate America has billions on the line when looking at these issues and makes their decisions accordingly.
'Quality of governance' implies that there is governing happening. I'd argue that the attraction in the past has been that Texas has been more laissez-faire than other states, which is attractive to corporations. The downside of that type of governance is that your institutions don't prepare for 200+ year events, as you say.

This, or something similar, was inevitable. Ask any one in risk management about sigma events; we think about them all the time. The bet was just always that the 200-year event would fall outside of a timeframe of management that you cared about, as a corporate actor. Didn't happen this time. And there may or may not be consequences. Only time will tell!
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  #1346  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2021, 7:17 PM
ATX2030 ATX2030 is offline
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Thought this might be useful for this topic and provides some perspective. Here's a link to disasters, both natural and manmade, for those interested.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lists_of_disasters
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  #1347  
Old Posted Mar 7, 2021, 12:01 AM
enragedcamel enragedcamel is offline
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Originally Posted by shoreditch View Post
'Quality of governance' implies that there is governing happening. I'd argue that the attraction in the past has been that Texas has been more laissez-faire than other states, which is attractive to corporations. The downside of that type of governance is that your institutions don't prepare for 200+ year events, as you say.

This, or something similar, was inevitable. Ask any one in risk management about sigma events; we think about them all the time. The bet was just always that the 200-year event would fall outside of a timeframe of management that you cared about, as a corporate actor. Didn't happen this time. And there may or may not be consequences. Only time will tell!
One thing that's gonna change the equation is climate change, which is making these types of events more frequent. Hurricane Harvey was only two and a half years ago, and that, too, was hailed as 100+ year event. Fifty years ago, having these types of extremes essentially back to back would have been an almost non-existent concern. Can't say the same anymore.
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  #1348  
Old Posted Mar 7, 2021, 12:15 AM
Enghum Enghum is offline
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There's an argument to be made that the storm and power grid failure has made Austin more attractive rather than less. At least in comparison to the rest of Texas.

Austin Energy released its generation results during the event and produced more power than consumed for almost every hour during the blackouts and high prices. There's probably still a massive natural gas bill to be paid but it may largely be covered by electricity charges to other utilities. A higher proportion of this Austin Energy generation was non natural gas.

https://www.statesman.com/story/news...rm/6908974002/

Other utilities are not so lucky. Those utilities like CPS, Brazos Coop, and Vistra all who lost massive amounts of money either for the natural gas or electricity that they bought. There's no where for those charges to really go in a lot of cases other than back to the customer in the competitive market. Customers will also face less choices as smaller companies head into bankruptcy or merge to survive.

There's also the cost to weatherize which utilities have obviously tried to avoid. This means natural gas supplies, power plant upgrades, and wind turbine ice mitigation systems will all need to be invested in. That's more money spent and some older power plants that are already at the end of their life may just decide to close down rather than upgrade. Most of the non combined cycle natural gas fleet and some coal plants are at end of their useful life.
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  #1349  
Old Posted Mar 7, 2021, 4:00 AM
undergroundman undergroundman is offline
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I'm just curious why there were several square miles surrounding "critical facilities", ie hospitals and fire stations, that remained lit up. Why aren't these critical facilities on there own individual switches? Had that been the case, we may had enough spare capacity to do a proper rolling blackout.

More specifically, ERCOT asked Austin to cut back about 50%. Austin Energy said that because they needed the entire remaining 50% to power critical facilities, they were unable to spare capacity for a rolling blackout. If the critical facilities had there own individualized switches, maybe that would've only taken up, say 25%, leaving the other 25% capacity for rolling blackouts. Is this a design flaw in the Austin Energy's local grid (poor disaster planning) or am I way off on my assumptions about how electrical grids work?
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  #1350  
Old Posted Mar 7, 2021, 7:06 AM
Enghum Enghum is offline
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Originally Posted by undergroundman View Post
I'm just curious why there were several square miles surrounding "critical facilities", ie hospitals and fire stations, that remained lit up. Why aren't these critical facilities on there own individual switches? Had that been the case, we may had enough spare capacity to do a proper rolling blackout.

More specifically, ERCOT asked Austin to cut back about 50%. Austin Energy said that because they needed the entire remaining 50% to power critical facilities, they were unable to spare capacity for a rolling blackout. If the critical facilities had there own individualized switches, maybe that would've only taken up, say 25%, leaving the other 25% capacity for rolling blackouts. Is this a design flaw in the Austin Energy's local grid (poor disaster planning) or am I way off on my assumptions about how electrical grids work?
It's not really set up that way. When a circuit is turned off what was being turned off is basically the transformers that step down high voltage electricity to medium voltage electricity. You can usually look over a substation on satellite view and see how many circuits that particular substation is hosting by counting the repeating equipment. Small substations have one or two circuits and larger substations like the Seaholm substation have upwards of 8 circuits. Depending on the mix of business vs residential each circuit represents about 5,000 people. Equipment at this level is very expensive and additional equipment and lines just to serve critical infrastructure would be very expensive. You pay more for delivery of electricity than you do for generation of electricity.

Downstream from the high to medium voltage transformer at the substations that is the start of the circuit you have conduit. The electricity conduit is stepped down once more by the transformers locally. Smaller loads are served by the cans you see hosted on poles. Larger loads are usually green boxes or sometimes on very large facilities the medium voltage is just fed into a transformer vault in the building itself.

So what does this mean? In order to isolate a critical facility to stay on you would have to have the ability to turn off all of the smaller transformers that step down the medium to low voltage that occur on the circuit. Installing such controls on that equipment would be prohibitively expensive. There may be a thousand smaller medium to low voltage transformers that would need connectivity to the internet basically to be able to turn off. The vast majority of these are just passive. When they receive electricity current they step it down in voltage There's nothing fancy about them and that keeps costs down. It's also why utility companies don't just know if you don't have power. There's no magical signal saying something isn't working. Meter data is collected wirelessly nowadays but that's usually someone driving around in a vehicle that is connecting over Wifi.

The solution may be some sort of switch behind the critical load to shave off anything behind that critical load while powering everything in front of it.

Mass remote disconnects of meters is probably being discussed as a solution as well. Those remote disconnect signals still need to get to the meter somehow.

As far as why it didn't seem like anyone was prepared it was because they weren't. No ERCOT scenario went as deep as 50% of load shedding. Highest scenario I've seen in the documentation was 35%. Load shedding events for ERCOT have all been designed for summer peak and it was imagined as an event that would last a couple hours and you'd be unlucky to be cycled off.

Last edited by Enghum; Mar 7, 2021 at 7:22 AM.
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  #1351  
Old Posted Mar 8, 2021, 5:17 PM
Sigaven Sigaven is offline
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Originally Posted by East7thStreet View Post
This weather event was once a 200 year+ thing. The quality of the governance of our state is one of the main reasons business has flourished in Texas for the past 100 years. Corporate America has billions on the line when looking at these issues and makes their decisions accordingly.
Once every 200 years? We had similar freezes (varying in severity) in 2011, 1989, 1983 and many more since 1899. These kinds of freezes are maximum once in a few decades and more likely once a decade or less in the coming century as the polar vortex above the arctic gets less stable.

If last month wasn't a wake-up call to finally massively upgrade our systems to deal with rare weather events that may become increasingly common, businesses will take notice and we will be fucked.
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  #1352  
Old Posted Mar 8, 2021, 6:27 PM
lonewolf lonewolf is offline
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the ice storm and the severity its consequences are exactly why we are ideal for businesses. austin is maybe the third lowest risk for natural weather disasters after san antonio and phoenix. can we stop this conversation already lol.

the part that was really frustrating is "weatherizing" (if that was indeed the culprit) is not a massive upgrade. it's not that expensive. it's largely as simple as more insulation, and maybe more PM detail with regard to heaters/driers
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  #1353  
Old Posted Mar 8, 2021, 6:33 PM
Riverranchdrone Riverranchdrone is offline
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Yes these events are suppose to be once in every 100 year events. But thanks to global warming it is now easily happening every decade if not sooner. Texas did not learn its lesson in 83, or 2011 and it is looking more and more like it did not learn its lesson with this event. Texas needs to weatherize its power grid. The people and businesses need to be more up in arms about this failure. At NXP we are looking at a hit to insurance of 30 to 50 million dollars in damages and that is a low ball estimate. Samsung is most likely well over 100 million dollars in their insurance claims. These events will only get worse and more frequent. Many companies are already losing money due to covid and with Abbott making the same mistake he did during the summer we can see another bigger covid spike coming in the next few months. Texas needs some real leadership to get through this.
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  #1354  
Old Posted Mar 8, 2021, 8:05 PM
ATX2030 ATX2030 is offline
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My source says Samsung chose Austin.
Have you heard anything to the contrary?
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  #1355  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2021, 3:40 AM
freerover freerover is online now
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Have you heard anything to the contrary?
I cannot imagine them sticking with Austin if they can get out of it. The existing factory is still down.
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  #1356  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2021, 6:36 AM
StoOgE StoOgE is offline
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Austin produced as much energy as it's output because it cut half it's power production. I know how to tell which posters didn't lose power/water for 4+ days straight.
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  #1357  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2021, 8:24 AM
JollyvilleJ-Rad JollyvilleJ-Rad is online now
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Originally Posted by StoOgE View Post
Austin produced as much energy as it's output because it cut half it's power production. I know how to tell which posters didn't lose power/water for 4+ days straight.
Lost water for 14 days; 7/11 and the YMCA kept my neighbors and me alive. Not in Austin currently, but Dallas (sucks) - so probably irrelevant. Was back home the past week though (great to be back where there is topography, even if covered in felled tree limbs)!

I'm hearing the same as freerover, the current facilities are not up and producing and it's still "clean-up". One big issue is water quality apparently - while it's safe to drink the filtration at the plant can't get the particulate low enough for wafer production. Just reporting - I'm no expert or insider in the slightest. But some employees are worried about the long-term viability of the current facility given the (longevity of) current conditions. Hope it's all wrong.
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  #1358  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2021, 10:32 PM
ATX2030 ATX2030 is offline
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I cannot imagine them sticking with Austin if they can get out of it. The existing factory is still down.
https://www.samsung.com/semiconducto...t-us/location/

Seeing how Austin is the only place to have both R&D and manufacturing centers outside of S. Korea and China I guess they will be building the new factory there. Time will tell.
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  #1359  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2021, 10:48 PM
WesternSon WesternSon is offline
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I am not much of a rah-rah-Pro-Texas-Chest-Thumper, but I call BS on Samsung pulling out on current operations and even the perspective plant. They might have had a rough go of it the last few weeks, but that is exactly what insurance is for; a black eye for sure, but not a lethal blow.

The political pressures to get chip manufacturing stateside means it'll be somewhere stateside. Name a more competitive US location...
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  #1360  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2021, 10:57 PM
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Originally Posted by freerover View Post
I cannot imagine them sticking with Austin if they can get out of it. The existing factory is still down.
They didn't invest billions on the current factory just to get up and leave. Furthermore, it takes time to bring the factory back online. It's not as simple as flipping a switch with the instruments and equipment they utilize.
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