These Cities Have Already Reached 'Peak Millennial' as Young People Begin to Leave

[Via Chicago]

http://time.com/5054046/millennials-cities/

Millennials flocked to U.S. cities over the past decade, but in some places, the migration appears to be reversing. After years of growth, the population of millennials in Boston and Los Angeles has fallen since 2015, with more young people leaving the cities than arriving last year, according to the latest Census data. And millennial growth has slowed in large hubs like Chicago, New York and Washington, D.C.

Dowell Myers, professor of demography at the University of Southern California, first suggested in 2015 that cities would begin to see declines in millennials. With the largest birth group turning 27 this year, Myers says it’s only a matter of time before millennials head to the suburbs for more space.

To see which cities have reached “peak millennial” — a term Myers coined —we analyzed a decade of Census data through 2016. We found that while tech hubs like San Francisco and Seattle are still drawing young people, large East Coast cities, like New York and D.C., are fast approaching peak millennial, with plateauing populations of those born between 1980 and 1996. And then there are cities like Boston, which already appear to have reached their peak. Boston lost roughly 7,000 millennials in 2016, after a record high of 259,000 the previous year.

“They’re doing what every generation does — they get married, start a family and think about having a backyard and looking at school systems,” says Jim Rooney, president of the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce. “I think that’s a pattern that we expect to experience, and to some to degrees are beginning to experience.”

In a survey earlier this year, Rooney found millennials are hopeful about Boston’s economic future, but less hopeful about their ability to participate in it. Why? “The cost of housing — they didn’t think they would be able to deal with buying a home,” he says. Zillow estimates the median home in Boston costs $561,000, and home prices are growing at more than double the rate of hourly wages.

In Chicago, the millennial population appears to have plateaued, hitting 814,000 in 2015 and falling by a few hundred in 2016. Jack Lavin, president of the area’s Chamber of Commerce, says the city has to compete with others around the country for young workers. “They’re making decisions on quality of life,” Lavin says. “If they’re having children, they’ve got to think about schools, they’re thinking about how to get to work — these are the challenges for urban areas to retain and attract new talent.”

While the millennial population may have peaked in Chicago’s core, millennials are a growing presence in the surrounding suburbs, according to data released last year by real estate analytics company RCLCO.

[Pedestrian]

I'm surprised San Francisco wasn't the star here. But regardless of the city, they come, they go, they come back.

Here in SF, they swamped us in 1999, coding ways to buy our pet food online. When that all went bust they left but they came back after "the Geat Recession". Now they are beginning to leave again (and a lot of long time residents are waving good bye, offering to buy their plane tickets). But the sad truth is, they'll return when it's time for another new "new thing".

• Video Link

[eschaton]

There's one idiotic problem with these "peak millennial" stories: The youngest adults (18-19 year olds) are no longer millennials by many definitions. For example, this study cut off millennials at 1996. This means that by 2016 18-19 year olds were no longer millennials. So even if the plateau or decline in in millennials was more than canceled out by post-millennials moving in, the study would fail to capture this dynamic.

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by eschaton

There's one idiotic problem with these "peak millennial" stories: The youngest adults (18-19 year olds) are no longer millennials by many definitions. For example, this study cut off millennials at 1996. This means that by 2016 18-19 year olds were no longer millennials. So even if the plateau or decline in in millennials was more than canceled out by post-millennials moving in, the study would fail to capture this dynamic.

We are only a couple years from new headlines:

Generation Z on the MOVE!!

City X thrives as it attracts Generation Zs!

Who are the big Generation Z cities?? Here's our list!!

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by eschaton

There's one idiotic problem with these "peak millennial" stories: The youngest adults (18-19 year olds) are no longer millennials by many definitions. For example, this study cut off millennials at 1996. This means that by 2016 18-19 year olds were no longer millennials. So even if the plateau or decline in in millennials was more than canceled out by post-millennials moving in, the study would fail to capture this dynamic.

Exactly.

All this means is that Millenials are getting old, they are moving to the burbs, and the next generation of young people are moving in

[Via Chicago]

i fully agree its a click-baity article, but on the one hand ive heard a lot of ancedotal stories about how millenials are choosing to raise kids in the city and that they WERENT following the trend back to suburbia, so did find it interesting to suggest there may be an out-migration occurring. and i do think it will be interesting to see how the next generations preferences change, in regards to neighborhoods, amenities, and cities in general. from a Gen Z perspective, cities that have been built around millennial's preferences may appear out of touch in a way that Boomer suburbia was out of touch with millennials.

[the urban politician]

I for one disagree with the majority in this forum bashing and gleefully predicting the death of the suburbs.

Suburbs can adapt to changing tastes too. Retrofitting malls, developing in mixed uses, taking advantage of transit, etc. It's already happening. They aren't going anywhere...

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Via Chicago

i fully agree its a click-baity article, but on the one hand ive heard a lot of ancedotal stories about how millenials are choosing to raise kids in the city and that they WERENT following the trend back to suburbia, so did find it interesting to suggest there may be an out-migration occurring. and i do think it will be interesting to see how the next generations preferences change, in regards to neighborhoods, amenities, and cities in general. from a next generation perspective, cities that have been built for millennials may appear out of touch in a way that Boomer suburbia was out of touch with millenials.

The question isn't really if the outmigration to the burbs is still happening - of course it will to some degree. The question is if the rate of outmigration has slowed down compared to a generation ago. I have to think it has - if for no other reason than millennials are having kids in lower numbers (and later) than boomers or Xers did.

[mhays]

There's a big difference between millennials not moving to a place, or leaving it, because of (a) lack of opportunity or interest vs. (b) high prices.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

I'm surprised San Francisco wasn't the star here. But regardless of the city, they come, they go, they come back.

Here in SF, they swamped us in 1999, coding ways to buy our pet food online. When that all went bust they left but they came back after "the Geat Recession". Now they are beginning to leave again (and a lot of long time residents are waving good bye, offering to buy their plane tickets). But the sad truth is, they'll return when it's time for another new "new thing".

• Video Link

in 1999, it was us X'ers. As for the Pets.com puppet, prehaps he could do a comedy tour with Triumph the Insult Comic Dog:

[jd3189]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

I for one disagree with the majority in this forum bashing and gleefully predicting the death of the suburbs.

Suburbs can adapt to changing tastes too. Retrofitting malls, developing in mixed uses, taking advantage of transit, etc. It's already happening. They aren't going anywhere...

Exactly. Especially with many of the core cities becoming too expensive for most people, including millennials and their successors on the generational lineage.

We have to learn to accept the existence of suburbs and should support any proposal to make them denser and more sustainable. After all, our cities are not big enough to house all the people who would want to live in them. The suburbs are going to be the only good option for those who want more space and good amenities without spending too much cash.

[Denvergotback]

I know I could be in the minority also, but as much as I really don't care for suburbs, I do think the best cities are the ones that can cater to everyone's tastes. Kind of a hybrid city, going from really dense to more suburban for those who wish for it. I do agree however that there is smarter ways we can go about building suburbs to make them cater that need for that group and still have it be a sustainable city. I do think that one day cities like Phoenix and Dallas are going to look back and say, "crap, what did we do..."

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Denvergotback

I know I could be in the minority also, but as much as I really don't care for suburbs, I do think the best cities are the ones that can cater to everyone's tastes. Kind of a hybrid city, going from really dense to more suburban for those who wish for it. I do agree however that there is smarter ways we can go about building suburbs to make them cater that need for that group and still have it be a sustainable city. I do think that one day cities like Phoenix and Dallas are going to look back and say, "crap, what did we do..."

Why single out Dallas and Phoenix? Virtually every major metro has sprawling suburbs.

[mhays]

Some cities have built in much more urban way than others. Phoenix is fairly dense suburbia vs. some places, but both of those cities lack urban districts, and both have miniscule transit use.

[Denvergotback]

I have lived in both Dallas and Phoenix, both severely lack that mindset of changing to more urban, though getting better. Of course every city will look back and think 'what the crap' to some degree. But some cities more in particular. Let it be noted I love both those cities, not trying to bash or anything.

Something about Dallas, I really believe the amount of freeways they have built throughout their downtown has really killed any chance of having a walk-able and vibrant centered urban center unless they really reconsider somethings.

[mhays]

They're also seriously hamstringing their infill by putting tons of parking in it. The result is very car-oriented even if it's dense. And it means it's usually large-site buildings, because a sunbelt-type parking ratio is very hard if not impossible with a dense building on a small site.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Exactly.

All this means is that Millenials are getting old, they are moving to the burbs, and the next generation of young people are moving in

Which makes me think how weird are those generation labels used to the extreme in the US.

Elsewhere, young people is young people. They get older, and other young people come buy.

[jd3189]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Which makes me think how weird are those generation labels used to the extreme in the US.

Elsewhere, young people is young people. They get older, and other young people come buy.

Well, the labels make sense. Each generation in the US during the 20th century has been generally distinct from one other based on the historical events they have been through. Even the young Baby Boomers would not be similar to the young Millienials right now.

[Sun Belt]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Which makes me think how weird are those generation labels used to the extreme in the US.

Elsewhere, young people is young people. They get older, and other young people come buy.

Yeah they could just measure it by the 18 to 29 crowd or some other fixed metric.

Some cities the figures are really skewed if they have a ton of colleges in the city. In these cities, the population of the 18-24 age group will always be steady no matter how healthy the city is.

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

I for one disagree with the majority in this forum bashing and gleefully predicting the death of the suburbs.

Do most people feel that way?

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Suburbs can adapt to changing tastes too. Retrofitting malls, developing in mixed uses, taking advantage of transit, etc. It's already happening. They aren't going anywhere...

I agree suburbs will adapt. I'd love to bring the small town USA feel back to our suburbs. Some will have an easier time with that than others.



I'm surprised to see Boston's millennial population drop. Anyone have any idea what may have happened there?