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  #81  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 1:13 AM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
And things get harder for Montreal, as Toronto gets bigger, it will eventually engulf other CMAs in southern Ontario while there's nothing around Montreal.

In any case, for the first time since the 1970's, Montreal growth rates are once again very close to Toronto's.
CMA can not merge so Toronto CMA can never take over the CMAs that surround it
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  #82  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 4:55 AM
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The difference is that between Ottawa and Montreal {at least on the Ontario side} it is barren country with hardly even a village between the 2. Between Toronto and London there is Guelph, Kitchener, Woodstcock and Ingersol so it is quite populace.
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  #83  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 6:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Acajack View Post

Something big would have to change in terms of Toronto's and Montreal's demographic evolutions and I don't really see that happening.
There is a potential game changer that people haven't touched on yet and that's affordability. What got buried in Toronto's strong 2.0% population growth figure was the net loss of 47,838 people to other parts of Canada. Almost all of that constituted families, priced out of Toronto, moving to other southern Ontario CMAs like KW and London. Smaller CMAs are starting to see spill over growth from Toronto and Vancouver. KW and London were the fastest growing CMAs in the country while Abbotsford was the fastest growing CMA in BC.

Toronto and Vancouver population growth could drop significantly if housing affordability gets much worse. We've seen this phenomenon in the US where priced out Americans head to affordable metros like Phoenix, Atlanta, Austin, etc. I suspect we are, indeed, seeing the same thing unfold here. I wouldn't be surprised to see Toronto fall from 10th fastest growing CMA to well out of the top 10. GGH population growth may stay the same but the growth might increasingly head to all those periphery CMAs: KW, Barrie, Hamilton, Brantford, Guelph, Peterborough, Oshawa, St.Catharines-Niagara.

So Montreal CMA could start reeling in Toronto CMA. It would be an academic argument though. The GGH population may end up being more relevant when comparing Toronto and Montreal. I saw some 'high growth' population scenario that pegged the GGH population at 17 million by 2046. Seems high to me but one thing is clear, the GGH is morphing into a juggernaut.
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  #84  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 10:58 AM
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Originally Posted by Nite View Post
CMA can not merge so Toronto CMA can never take over the CMAs that surround it
I didn’t mean officially, but de facto. As Toronto keeps growing fast, it will eventually draw most of those areas into its de facto metropolitan area, widening the gap between them and Montreal.
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  #85  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 12:36 PM
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
There is a potential game changer that people haven't touched on yet and that's affordability. What got buried in Toronto's strong 2.0% population growth figure was the net loss of 47,838 people to other parts of Canada. Almost all of that constituted families, priced out of Toronto, moving to other southern Ontario CMAs like KW and London. Smaller CMAs are starting to see spill over growth from Toronto and Vancouver. KW and London were the fastest growing CMAs in the country while Abbotsford was the fastest growing CMA in BC.
As long as Canada is super pro-immigration, and as long as English is the global lingua franca, then Toronto will have booming population growth. Doesn't matter if it has heavy net domestic migration, immigration will more than make up the difference.

Toronto is already horrifically expensive for SFH relative to salaries, especially factoring in commutes, but continues to show Sunbelt-like growth. Canada obviously doesn't have a Sunbelt or other competitive English speaking job centers, so the growth will likely continue.
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  #86  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 2:05 PM
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^^^
Doesn't Montreal still have an English-speaking minority big enough to attract some English-speaking immigrants or everybody has left in the 1970's?
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  #87  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 2:08 PM
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Originally Posted by ssiguy View Post
The difference is that between Ottawa and Montreal {at least on the Ontario side} it is barren country with hardly even a village between the 2. Between Toronto and London there is Guelph, Kitchener, Woodstcock and Ingersol so it is quite populace.
Actually, on the Ontario side it's also continuously populated between Ottawa and Montreal if you follow the traditional route (former ON-17) that hugs the south shore of the Ottawa River. Like the old north shore route in Quebec (QC-148), it's pretty much a continuous landscape of farms, small towns and villages.

It's not as populated as Toronto-KW-London of course.

ON-417, which runs on a more southerly alignment, was only built in the 1970s through a less populated zone.
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  #88  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 2:47 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
^^^
Doesn't Montreal still have an English-speaking minority big enough to attract some English-speaking immigrants or everybody has left in the 1970's?
The answers to these questions are yes, yes and no.

Montreal still has a large anglophone minority community with a fairly impressive array of institutions. It depends on who you talk to, but a lot of people consider Montreal's McGill University to be the best university in all of Canada, and many Americans also consider it to be quasi-Ivy League and many of them go there.

But Montreal still pales in comparison to Toronto and a bunch of Anglo-Canadian cities in terms of the attractiveness for anglophone or, especially, English-oriented immigrants. Because the vast majority of immigrants to Canada are neither anglophones nor francophones. Of course, because of English's global status you have people who arrive from Malaysia, Brazil or Russia who have at least some basic notions of English. So they feel that with that starting base, it's easier for them to make a new start in a place like Toronto or even Vancouver, Ottawa or Calgary. Than in a place like Montreal where yes your English will certainly be useful, but you'll still bump into French a lot as well. Which is an additional challenge for integrating into a new country, that most people would rather avoid.
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  #89  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 3:28 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
^^^
Doesn't Montreal still have an English-speaking minority big enough to attract some English-speaking immigrants or everybody has left in the 1970's?
In response to "first official language spoken" for the 2016 census (most recent), 765,000 people in Greater Montreal speak English as a first language (compared to 3 million for French), while 245,000 people in Greater Montreal claim both English and French.

This English language minority population has actually been very slightly increasing in absolute numbers for the past 10 years, though not enough to increase its share of the linguistic pie. Only the allophone (neither English nor French as a first language) population has increased its share.

In terms of knowledge of official languages, 2.2 million people in Greater Montreal claim knowledge of both French and English, while English only sits at 250,000 people, suggesting a that the vast majority of Montreal anglophones self-describe as bilingual (to some degree).

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r...B1=All&TABID=1
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  #90  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 4:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Zeej View Post
In response to "first official language spoken" for the 2016 census (most recent), 765,000 people in Greater Montreal speak English as a first language (compared to 3 million for French), while 245,000 people in Greater Montreal claim both English and French.

This English language minority population has actually been very slightly increasing in absolute numbers for the past 10 years, though not enough to increase its share of the linguistic pie. Only the allophone (neither English nor French as a first language) population has increased its share.

In terms of knowledge of official languages, 2.2 million people in Greater Montreal claim knowledge of both French and English, while English only sits at 250,000 people, suggesting a that the vast majority of Montreal anglophones self-describe as bilingual (to some degree).

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r...B1=All&TABID=1
Yeah, it's definitely large enough to provide something of an anglo bubble that you can dwell in most of the time. Though the French language does poke its head into the bubble from time to time, with a "Bonjour les amis! BTW this is a mainly French-speaking city. And don't you forget it!"

Some people can ride with that reality, but for others it's more difficult which explains why anglos (even if you're right that their demographics are improving slightly) leave Quebec in way higher proportions than most any other group.
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  #91  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 10:27 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
I didn’t mean officially, but de facto. As Toronto keeps growing fast, it will eventually draw most of those areas into its de facto metropolitan area, widening the gap between them and Montreal.
Agree. When comparing Toronto to US MSAs I've stopped using Toronto CMA as it omits 1.2 million people in metros literally across the road from it. I use Greater Toronto - Hamilton which quite closely mirrors Toronto CMA + Hamilton CMA + Oshawa CMA. It had 7,680,502 people in 2019 an increase of 144,566 over the previous year. The Greater Golden Horseshoe is far too spread out to be considered a metro though; it's analogous to the Bay Area.

That said, one may have to revisit whether the GGH is a de facto metropolitan area 20-30 years from now. Things seem to be heading that way. As all those periphery CMAs expand they will start growing into each other. The first to do so will likely be Kichener-Waterloo CMA with Guelph CMA. The GGH is all connected by commuter rail already and those bonds are getting stronger. GO Transit expects its passenger volumes to balloon from 80 million to 200 million in the next 25 years.


Greater Golden Horseshoe


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710013501
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  #92  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 11:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
Yeah, it's definitely large enough to provide something of an anglo bubble that you can dwell in most of the time. Though the French language does poke its head into the bubble from time to time, with a "Bonjour les amis! BTW this is a mainly French-speaking city. And don't you forget it!"

Some people can ride with that reality, but for others it's more difficult which explains why anglos (even if you're right that their demographics are improving slightly) leave Quebec in way higher proportions than most any other group.
Would you analogize the anglo bubble (from the point of view of incoming English-speaking immigrants, even first-worlders like Americans, for instance, American students at McGill) as stronger or weaker than the sealed bubble of other English-dominant expats for instance, Brits in Spain, or Thailand or Americans in Dubai or Tokyo?

The difference seems to be that in these other cases, there isn't as much of a worry of long-term-ness/permanence of their bubble (e.g. the Brits or Americans often don't want themselves or their kids to settle and become/assimilate into Spanairds, Thais or Emiratis). But Anglos in Montreal do have to worry about this (they don't think of themselves as temporary expats ready to decamp again to Toronto or another English-speaking city as much as the stereotypical American expat abroad) -- what's the end-goal of keeping an Anglo bubble alive in a historically Anglo-and-French contested, but now French-revived city in a French-speaking province in an English-dominant but officially bilingual country, is kind of different than Anglo bubbles in other places, right?

Also, there is not this deference (at least any more!) to English-speakers you still see in the locals reaction to popping their heads into the Anglo-bubble. In many expat circles, you get the impression that Americans/Brits/English-speakers are put on a pedestal and is an insiders' clubs the locals don't feel comfortable intruding on or into, let alone trying to control -- I feel like fewer Thais or Spanish would tell the expat "hey this is our country, you've been here half the decade, speak Thai or Spanish, assimilate or get out!", but Francophones are much bolder and don't think that the Anglo/expat bubble is more "high status" than the surrounding locals or worthy of deference to. There's much more of an egalitarianism of the Anglo-bubble's inhabitants and the people outside, even if both see themselves as superior in different ways (the English-speakers may be high status due to being tied to Americans/the broader dominant Anglosphere, but the Francophones have the confidence of home turf) than you don't see in other Anglophone expat circles.

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  #93  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 11:16 PM
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I was checking out on the citypopulation.de the yearly growth (2017-2019). Toronto is at 2.01%, Montreal at 1.51%, Vancouver 1.49%. I didn't do the math, but Oshawa (1.89%) and Hamilton (1.09%) would pull Toronto below 2%/year.

I don't know if someone could confirm, but that's probably the closest Montreal got from Toronto since the 1960's and the first time ever that it grew faster than Vancouver.
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  #94  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 11:20 PM
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
Agree. When comparing Toronto to US MSAs I've stopped using Toronto CMA as it omits 1.2 million people in metros literally across the road from it. I use Greater Toronto - Hamilton which quite closely mirrors Toronto CMA + Hamilton CMA + Oshawa CMA. It had 7,680,502 people in 2019 an increase of 144,566 over the previous year. The Greater Golden Horseshoe is far too spread out to be considered a metro though; it's analogous to the Bay Area.

That said, one may have to revisit whether the GGH is a de facto metropolitan area 20-30 years from now. Things seem to be heading that way. As all those periphery CMAs expand they will start growing into each other. The first to do so will likely be Kichener-Waterloo CMA with Guelph CMA. The GGH is all connected by commuter rail already and those bonds are getting stronger. GO Transit expects its passenger volumes to balloon from 80 million to 200 million in the next 25 years.


Greater Golden Horseshoe


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710013501
Do you think being farther out and being separated by the greenbelt makes a difference in connectedness to each other in creating a GGH? For instance, as is prominent on the map, Oshawa, Newmarket or Milton, Hamilton and St. Catherines are "inside" the Greenbelt, but say, Barrie, Guelph, KW, or Peterborough are not. You do get the impression the greenbelt does provide some kind of physical as well as psychological barrier but it is breaking down. The feeling of "city/town, then travel through some green space, forest, farms and fields (which aren't going to be developed at least according to plan), then city/town again" kind of makes a bit of separation in the minds of the commuter but then again, cultural, psychological, and economic distance isn't always dependant on physical distance.
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  #95  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 11:28 PM
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^ That map makes Newmarket look like an outpost separated by the greenbelt from the rest of the Toronto urban area, but that's not really the case -- Aurora borders Newmarket directly to the South and there are several large developments running Southward to Richmond Hill. Aside from a few undeveloped plots of land, the Yonge Street corridor is almost completely built up from Toronto's Northern boundary all the way to Newmarket.
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  #96  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2020, 11:35 PM
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^ That map makes Newmarket look like an outpost separated by the greenbelt from the rest of the Toronto urban area, but that's not really the case -- Aurora borders Newmarket directly to the South and there are several large developments running Southward to Richmond Hill. Aside from a few undeveloped plots of land, the Yonge Street corridor is almost completely built up from Toronto's Northern boundary all the way to Newmarket.
Even though it's only been a decade or so since I last lived in Toronto (or the GTA), I am indeed getting the vibe of towns of the 905 feeling less and less like outposts separated from the city anymore.

Even in the 90s and into the 2000s, I felt like you could still feel like parts of the 905 seemed like small town Ontario in the way that Toronto's business was not really any of their business but now it's less and less the case.
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  #97  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2020, 12:53 AM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
I was checking out on the citypopulation.de the yearly growth (2017-2019). Toronto is at 2.01%, Montreal at 1.51%, Vancouver 1.49%. I didn't do the math, but Oshawa (1.89%) and Hamilton (1.09%) would pull Toronto below 2%/year.

I don't know if someone could confirm, but that's probably the closest Montreal got from Toronto since the 1960's and the first time ever that it grew faster than Vancouver.
Good eye. Yes, if we start talking about Greater Toronto - Hamilton the growth rate was 2018-2019 works out to 1.918%. Hamilton is really the only part that's still reasonably affordable. Oddly, it still hasn't felt the effects of proximity to Toronto. With upgraded rail between Toronto and Hamilton I suspect Hamilton population growth and real estate prices will start bumping up.

Once Hamilton becomes expensive growth might start heading to the other 6 CMAs in the GGH beyond the Green Belt. If it unfolds like that we might see Greater Toronto - Hamilton growing at the same rate at the Montreal CMA. And I agree that it's odd seeing Montreal growing faster than Vancouver. Perhaps it will become the norm.
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  #98  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2020, 1:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Capsicum View Post
Do you think being farther out and being separated by the greenbelt makes a difference in connectedness to each other in creating a GGH? For instance, as is prominent on the map, Oshawa, Newmarket or Milton, Hamilton and St. Catherines are "inside" the Greenbelt, but say, Barrie, Guelph, KW, or Peterborough are not. You do get the impression the greenbelt does provide some kind of physical as well as psychological barrier but it is breaking down. The feeling of "city/town, then travel through some green space, forest, farms and fields (which aren't going to be developed at least according to plan), then city/town again" kind of makes a bit of separation in the minds of the commuter but then again, cultural, psychological, and economic distance isn't always dependant on physical distance.
It's something I've thought about too. Is a place part of a metropolitan area if all that separates it is protected green space? I'd agree that physically and psychologically it's a barrier but those 2 things aren't necessarily deal breakers imo. As you've alluded to, commuter flows, connectivity, governance, economic ties come into play. A generation from now, 6 of the 9 CMAs in the GGH might become 1 de facto metropolitan area. It's still hard to see Barrie, Peterborough, and St. Catharines-Niagara being included.

To cloud things further, some development does happen in the Green Belt. Most people are under the impression that it constitutes an outright ban but that doesn't seem to be the case. There are tons of small communities in the Green Belt itself. Caledon, for instance. It's growing quite quickly. I provided a link below:


https://www.ontario.ca/page/greenbelt-maps
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  #99  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2020, 1:24 AM
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Originally Posted by softee View Post
^ That map makes Newmarket look like an outpost separated by the greenbelt from the rest of the Toronto urban area, but that's not really the case -- Aurora borders Newmarket directly to the South and there are several large developments running Southward to Richmond Hill. Aside from a few undeveloped plots of land, the Yonge Street corridor is almost completely built up from Toronto's Northern boundary all the way to Newmarket.
Your definition of 'built up' likely differs from the definition used in that map; it differs from mine too. I've driven that road. It doesn't feel built up to me at all. It feels like rural Canada. Toronto's built form ends at the northern edge of Richmond Hill. Head further and its countryside.
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  #100  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2020, 1:30 AM
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And I agree that it's odd seeing Montreal growing faster than Vancouver. Perhaps it will become the norm.
The sprawl caused by the high real estate price in the region has pushed people farther and farther from downtown Montréal. Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu and Saint-Lin were merged in the CMA in 2016. That's 120,000 people. The urban sprawl will continue and we will see more municipalities merge with the CMA. There are cities scattered around Montréal that are not even part of the CMA. Like Valleyfield, Lachute and Joliette. Saint-Sauveur is now a suburb. Chertsey is the fartest commuting suburb I can find, 70km.
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