Quote:
Originally Posted by Acajack
Something big would have to change in terms of Toronto's and Montreal's demographic evolutions and I don't really see that happening.
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There is a potential game changer that people haven't touched on yet and that's affordability. What got buried in Toronto's strong 2.0% population growth figure was the
net loss of 47,838 people to other parts of Canada. Almost all of that constituted families, priced out of Toronto, moving to other southern Ontario CMAs like KW and London. Smaller CMAs are starting to see spill over growth from Toronto and Vancouver. KW and London were the fastest growing CMAs in the country while Abbotsford was the fastest growing CMA in BC.
Toronto and Vancouver population growth could drop significantly if housing affordability gets much worse. We've seen this phenomenon in the US where priced out Americans head to affordable metros like Phoenix, Atlanta, Austin, etc. I suspect we are, indeed, seeing the same thing unfold here. I wouldn't be surprised to see Toronto fall from 10th fastest growing CMA to well out of the top 10. GGH population growth may stay the same but the growth might increasingly head to all those periphery CMAs: KW, Barrie, Hamilton, Brantford, Guelph, Peterborough, Oshawa, St.Catharines-Niagara.
So Montreal CMA could start reeling in Toronto CMA. It would be an academic argument though. The GGH population may end up being more relevant when comparing Toronto and Montreal. I saw some 'high growth' population scenario that pegged the GGH population at 17 million by 2046. Seems high to me but one thing is clear, the GGH is morphing into a juggernaut.