The Canadian Electric Vehicle thread

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Are you assuming Civic and Corolla won't be full electric?
Corolla and Civic already have hybrid variants.
Toyota Corolla is still the most popular small sedan in North America.

There's a reason Toyota just replaced the grandson of the founder as CEO. There are real doubts if they can make the transition. I don't think Civic and Corolla will be electric by the end of the decade. And I think US$25k BEVs are going to maul their sales of entry level cars like the Civic and Corolla badly. I've seen it estimated that this price level covers 70% of global auto sales. And in a lot of the world, gas is more expensive than Canada, or just as expensive with a lot less disposable income.

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-livin...ings?itemId=24

The problem for Honda and Toyota is that you cannot make a half-decent EV in that price range without building a dedicated platform (takes at least 5 years) and securing a long term battery supply (5-10 years). They are late to the party. So they have to ration what supply they have to hybrids and hope that strategy holds them out till competitors put out cheaper BEVs. If production of cheaper BEVs by the competition ramps by 2030, Honda, Toyota, Mazda, etc will be in trouble.

Originally Posted by Wigs

Did you not see my post that Hyundai/Kia have 11 full electrics and 13 hybrids in the works?

The number of models for sale is irrelevant. Tesla is beating them all in BEVs with 4 models in the consumer market and about 3 more models on the way in the next 5 years. It's actually advantageous to have fewer models. Improves economies of scale.

Originally Posted by Wigs

Don't rule out Japan or Korea for autos. People want good value for the money. Toyota and Honda have decades of proven reliability, the latest Kias are proving to be almost as reliable (urbandreamer's girlfriend's Soul model nothwithstanding )

That's exactly why I said they can keep milking hybrids for a long time. But I question whether they can survive the transition. Look how much trouble Toyota is having with its first BEV. And they aren't even really making the thing! And they are behind Volkswagen who is struggling with a dedicated a BEV platform after tens of billions invested. I think there's genuine panic in Japanese boardrooms now. And in the country itself (a massive chunk of the Japanese GDP is tied up in auto manufacturing).

Originally Posted by Wigs

Chinese brands have no name recognition or quality/reliability, VW doesn't have high sales in North America.

But North America is not the whole market. It's not even the biggest auto market. Nor is it a growing auto market. I'm not going to say North America is irrelevant. But it's definitely not a market that is now driving substantial corporate investment decisions or consumer decisions. And if the other 70% of the world takes up Chinese auto (and a third of that is China itself), then legacy automakers will be in trouble.

Originally Posted by Wigs

Tesla is clearly the BEV leader right now, but that might not be the case in 5 or 10 years.

A year ago I would have agreed with you. Now, I don't think anybody can catch them. Sure, somebody like BYD might put out more BEVs. But nobody makes the profit Tesla does per car. Nobody has the EV manufacturing efficiency they do. Nobody has the battery and resource supply secured like they have. And nobody has the BEV manufacturing knowledge they do, to the point that they are now building auto plants with a fraction of the legacy automaker plants' footprint that will put out multiple times the number of cars. Tesla is now the Apple of EVs. It's just that simple. And just like none of the Android phonemakers caught up to Apple in profit or sales, nobody is going to catch Tesla in EVs.

Again, Toyota just tore down a Model Y and called it a work of art. That happened just a month before Tesla gets on stage and promises production processes that will cut manufacturing costs by 50%. Which of the legacy automakers can compete with that?

[Wigs]

I have faith in Toyota, Honda, and Kia. You seem to think at least the Japanese ones, or Toyota in particular will be left in the dust. I think that's a premature prediction.

Canada follows USA. If a model is popular in Europe or Asia but not USA we don't see them here. This is how it's always been... in our lifetime, anyway.

Tesla is the leader. But once it faces stiff competition it might just be one of many competitors instead of the exception.

Tesla promises a lot of stuff via Musk. He told us solar roof would be commonplace. Anything Elon says will happen right away either doesn't happen or it takes years longer than his promises. If the Buffalo gigafactory is any indication, they treat employees like garbage. If the Fremont auto factory is any indication they treat Black workers as second class employees.

[Truenorth00]

Honestly, I think Musk is full of it and Tesla would actually do better without him. I detest the guy. I've been pretty clear on that.

But at this point, it's not about Musk. Just look at the numbers from Tesla. Look at the profit per car. Look at the area efficiency of their plants. Look at how short their supply chain is (so much in house including a lot of microprocessors). Just go watch some teardown videos. The engineering is amazing. Ford's former CEO said they are one generation behind Tesla. The Japanese OEMs are probably 2-3 generations behind. That is hard lead to catch up on. Let alone in 5-10 years.

You also have to understand that a big part of the Japanese OEMs problems are domestic. The government in Japan invested massively in hydrogen after Fukushima. The automakers came along for the ride. Unfortunately for them, the rest of the world went BEV for consumer cars instead. And now they are stuck.

To understand Tesla's lead financially, just see this:

• Video Link

And that video doesn't even consider the massive debts that legacy automakers have:



Could legacy OEMs catch up? Only if Tesla seriously falters and if governments bail the legacies out of their debts. I don't see much of that happening anytime soon.

[Wigs]

I give Tesla complete credit for the paradigm shift to BEVs and encourage many others to buy hybrids in the interim. They are clearly the sales leader and the current benchmark for electrics.

I'm aware Honda invested massively in fusion, didn't know the country as a whole did. My point is don't prematurely count out Japanese or Korean automakers.

and yes, if Musk can get out of the way of Tesla, get off twitter and focus on SpaceX they'd be much better off.

[Truenorth00]

That should sum up the problem that all these legacy automakers have. Tesla can literally cut prices below their profit margins and still make multiples of what they make right now. This gives Tesla lots of room to manoeuvre and innovate, which the legacies don't have. So catching up requires a miracle for some of these OEMs. For most of them, this is now a race for survival. Given their debt loads, it's not clear that many of them will survive the transition.

[Wigs]

wow. $9,500/unit. That's like the profit GM was making when SUVs started selling like hotcakes.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Wigs

wow. $9,500/unit. That's like the profit GM was making when SUVs started selling like hotcakes.

You really should watch the video I posted above. I don't think people are actually understanding what is coming for a lot of legacy automakers. If they aren't actually panicking, they absolutely should be.

On the topic of why the Civic and Corolla are in trouble, I'll point out a few highlights about the ID2 (just so you can see this isn't just a Tesla thing):

....
Volkswagen says the ID. 2all offers "particularly efficient drive, battery and charging technology." The front-mounted motor delivers 166 kilowatts (222 horsepower), about the same power you get in a base VW Golf GTI. This enables Golf GTI-like acceleration from zero to 62 mph (100 kph) in less than 7 seconds.
....
While the automaker does not reveal the battery capacity, it says the targeted range is up to 280 miles (450 kilometers) on the WLTP test cycle. We also learn that the battery can be charged from 10 to 80 percent in 20 minutes at DC fast-charging stations. The ID. 2all also offers the option of charging at up to 11 kW at home or at public AC charging points.
....
The interior also has a clear and simple design, with a clean dashboard, a bridge-type center console, two rectangular displays – a 12.9-inch center touchscreen with a new menu structure and a 10.9-inch digital cockpit – and a large panoramic sunroof.

The ID. 2all also features a head-up display,...
....

Thanks to the efficient packaging of the MEB Entry platform, the VW ID. 2all offers significantly more interior space that a VW Golf. The trunk has a capacity of 17.3 cubic feet (490 liters), but with the rear seats folded (40:60 split), that increases to 47 cu ft (1,330 l). When the front passenger seat backrest is also folded down, the ID. 2all offers a continuous load area that stretches 86.6 inches (2.20 meters).

....

Source: https://insideevs.com/news/657415/vo...-electric-car/


So a €25k car that has the room of Golf, charges in 20 mins, has the range of a first gen Tesla, performance close to GTI, comes with a HUD, and the pricetag of a Polo is on the way in 2 years. How well do you think Toyota and Honda can compete with something like this? A hybrid just won't cut it. And they most certainly can't make a hybrid for much cheaper. Oh and the ID2 will get rebates and tax credits in Europe which Civic and Corolla hybrids won't.

Good news though? No ID2 for North America. So Honda and Toyota can keep dumping them here for a few more years.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

That should sum up the problem that all these legacy automakers have. Tesla can literally cut prices below their profit margins and still make multiples of what they make right now. This gives Tesla lots of room to manoeuvre and innovate, which the legacies don't have. So catching up requires a miracle for some of these OEMs. For most of them, this is now a race for survival. Given their debt loads, it's not clear that many of them will survive the transition.

That's quite striking. As a Ford EV owner one really gets the sense that Ford really, really wants its electric transition to work and is investing a lot to keep us happy. We get OTA updates to our Mach-E's operating system all the time. (I believe there was one that took place just overnight in fact.)

We also get regular e-mails for feedback on how to improve the vehicle, and some of the stuff I have suggested (I likely was not the only one making these comments) actually ended up getting changed and uploaded to my vehicle in one of these OTA updates.

Needless to say I've never had anything like this in terms of automaker follow-up for an ICE vehicle.

[Truenorth00]

^ Ford is actually one of the legacy automakers that must watchers are bullish on surviving.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

^ Ford is actually one of the legacy automakers that must watchers are bullish on surviving.

My sense is that they've made the calculation that, in spite of short-term losses, they've got the wherewithal to carry themselves through this transition to what the auto market of the future will be.

[Jaws]

That's an interesting graphic regarding Tesla profits, but I think that might be on the low side given that in Q4 Tesla cut their prices across the board in North America. In Canada the Model Y went from $85k to $70k for the LR model.

[OldDartmouthMark]

A couple of EV-related stories I noticed in the local news lately:

Nanotech Co. Granted New Lithium Battery Patent

Nova Scotia-based nanotech company has been issued another U.S. patent directed to lithium batteries.

META now has 501 active patent documents, of which 315 have issued. The company is developing two new products that it says will make lithium batteries safer and more efficient, while extending electric vehicle (EV) range and making battery supply chains more sustainable.

The patent is directed to batteries that use novel separators, including META's nanoporous ceramic NPORE® separators.

"Battery fires continue to be a common problem across all applications, from mobile devices to e-bikes and EVs," META Chief Executive Officer George Palikaras said. "Both of our new products have features that help prevent thermal runaways."

The patent is directed at lithium batteries where the anode, or negative electrode, comprises a dispersion or "wet" layer of the anode materials. A second related patent is expected to be issued shortly, the company said.

"NPORE® provides outstanding heat resistance compared with conventional polymer separators, which show significant shrinkage at elevated temperatures due to the melting of the polymer," Mattison wrote. "Even when the polymers are coated with ceramic particles, the polymers remain susceptible to deformation under high-temperature conditions.

https://www.streetwisereports.com/ar...ry-patent.html

$300M Michelin expansion to support production of electric vehicle tires in N.S.

Michelin and the federal and provincial governments have announced they will spend $300 million to expand the company's facilities in Nova Scotia, which could create dozens of new jobs at its Bridgewater plant.

The tire manufacturing company said it would spend $140 million on the Bridgewater plant, and an unfinalized agreement with the federal government could see the company receive an additional $44.3 million in funding through the Strategic Innovation Fund.

Michelin will also receive a provincial tax credit of about $61.3 million over five years to help fund the expansion.

The funding will also be used to cut emissions at the company's operations in the province through electrification.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-...ires-1.6778217

[OldDartmouthMark]

Honda to move Accord production to Indiana as part of EV shift

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Honda Motor Co's U.S. unit said on Tuesday it would move production of its Accord sedan to Indiana in 2025 after assembling the model in Marysville, Ohio for more than 40 years, as part of its shift to electric vehicle (EV) production.Marysville will be Honda's first U.S. auto plant to transition to making EVs.

The move comes after Honda and South Korea's LG Energy Solution Ltd in October announced they would build planned $4.4 billion joint-venture battery plant at a site near Jeffersonville, Ohio and broke ground earlier this month.

The battery plant, to be completed by the end of 2024, will cover more than 2 million square feet (185,806 square meters) and aims for about 40 Gigawatt hours (GWh) of annual production capacity.

Honda said last year it was separately investing $700 million to retool three Ohio plants for electric vehicle production by 2026, including Marysville.

Marysville will begin preparing for EV production as early as January by consolidating its two production lines to one to enable it to begin building the EV infrastructure, the company said.

Honda began assembling the Accord at its Marysville in November 1982, making it the first Japanese automaker to produce cars in the United States. It has since produced more than 12.5 million Accords at the Ohio plant.

In 1989, the Accord was the first Japanese model to hold the title of best-selling U.S. car, with 362,700 vehicles sold.

In recent years, Americans have been moving away from sedans to sport utility and crossover vehicles. Honda sold 154,600 Accords in the U.S. last year, down 24% from 2021.

Honda said Accord production will be transferred to its Indiana auto plant, which builds the Civic Hatchback and CR-V.

Honda's transmission plant in Georgia will dedicate one production line to e-axle production - a key EV component - and its Anna, Ohio engine plant will shift production of some engine components to a Honda engine plant in Alabama to prepare for production of battery cases for EV models, the company said.

https://www.saltwire.com/nova-scotia...ift-100833843/

[OldDartmouthMark]

Customer service satisfaction of EV owners lower than ICE vehicles - report

(Reuters) - Customer service satisfaction among owners of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is lower than those who own internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, according to a study released on Thursday.

The J.D. Power 2023 U.S. Customer Service Index (CSI) Study, which is in its 43rd year, saw a year-over-year score decline for the first time in 28 years.

Automakers are committing billions toward developing and building EVs and batteries as they shift their focus to cleaner mobility alternatives, but customer service satisfaction remains low.

Recall rates, which are more than double for BEVs than their gas/diesel counterparts, are a leading factor, the report said.

BEV owners' customer service satisfaction was 42 points lower than owners of ICE engines.

"As the electric vehicle segment grows, service is going to be a 'make or break' part of the ownership experience," said Chris Sutton, vice president of automotive retail at J.D. Power.

"The industry has been hyper-focused on launches and now these customers are bringing their electric vehicles in for maintenance and repairs."

The study shows a decline of 23 points in satisfaction when an owner has to bring their vehicle in for a repair after a recall rather than traditional maintenance and repair.

Since its report in 2021, the consultants have found that owners now have to wait longer for their vehicles to be serviced due to labor, loaner vehicle availability and parts shortages.

Lexus ranks highest in satisfaction with dealer service among all premium brands and Mitsubishi takes top spot among mass market brands, according to the report.

The 2023 U.S. CSI Study is based on responses from 64,248 verified registered owners and lessees of 2020 to 2022 model-year vehicles.

https://www.saltwire.com/nova-scotia...ort-100832316/

[Truenorth00]

Would love to know which BEV brands and models do best.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by theman23

Sign me up for an ID2 if it ever comes to North America.

Me too. Thomas at autogefühl as a more in-depth look at the ID2 including an interview with VW CEO. Great to hear they are finally moving away from leather back to cloth seating (as has been seen in the new Toyota Crown and BMW 7 series). Never understood why people were sold on leather as a great material for car seats

• Video Link

[Tvisforme]

Originally Posted by theman23

Sign me up for an ID2 if it ever comes to North America.

Originally Posted by whatnext

Me too. Thomas at autogefühl as a more in-depth look at the ID2 including an interview with VW CEO...

Thanks for that link. My first car was a virtually bulletproof Mark 2 Golf, and a Mark 4 served as the "family car" for fifteen years of kids, sports, shopping and vacations. Lot of respect for the Golf line and this new model - even if it's more of a Polo - evokes the same "practical but fun" feel. We moved to Mazda after the Mk4 but this would be a very tempting purchase if it comes to North America.

[thenoflyzone]

Tesla might be "killing it", but they're built cheap, especially the model 3/Y, and especially for the harsh Canadian winters. They come with a lot of defects, and the company clearly cuts corners to roll out vehicles as quickly as they can, which explains the profit numbers per vehicle pictured above.

Links in French only, but you get the gist just from watching.

https://rpmweb.ca/videos/reportages/...auts-des-tesla

https://rpmweb.ca/videos/reportages/...erver-sa-tesla

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Tesla might be "killing it", but they're built cheap, especially the model 3/Y, and especially for the harsh Canadian winters. They come with a lot of defects, and the company clearly cuts corners to roll out vehicles as quickly as they can, which explains the profit numbers per vehicle pictured above.

Links in French only, but you get the gist just from watching.

https://rpmweb.ca/videos/reportages/...auts-des-tesla

https://rpmweb.ca/videos/reportages/...erver-sa-tesla

Unfortunately, the other OEMs aren't much better on EV quality. See VW software issues and Rivians getting bricked. But you don't get basic build issues as much with other OEMs. Personally, the combination of reliability issues and lack of a large support network has me very hesitant to consider a Tesla.

[Acajack]

Two similar pretty long freeway drives over the weekend.

It was quite windy here and I noticed a huge change in range between the two drives.

Temperature around -5C for both drives.

Strong headwind: 3.5 km per kwh

Strong tailwind: 5.6 km per kwh

I was quite surprised seeing that latter number as that is quite close to my best km per kwh performance under ideal summer conditions, which is to say between 5.8 and 6 km per kwh.