Statistics Canada Reports II

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by someone123

I don't have any strong opinions on London ON but I don't think those statistics capture what this NJB person cares about. London will tend to look relatively good on density stats because it has "well packed" development with few geographical barriers (while a place like Stockholm would have a big census tract level density penalty). Commuting transport mode is interesting but doesn't get at urbanism very directly and I wonder how relevant it is in the post-Covid WFH environment. Is work from home a mode or do they shrink the denominator? What if you work from home 3 days and go in 2 days?

For NJB you'd want to look at whether there are vibrant areas of mixed use where people in practice get around on foot or by bike for day-to-day activities (not just commuting). I will leave it to others to debate whether lots of people in London ON live an Amsterdam-like lifestyle that includes things like many short trips to small scale local businesses.

Vanishingly few people (compared to Amsterdam, which I have been to twice) in London (Ontario, which I currently live in) live an Amsterdam-like lifestyle. There is a pocket downtown with a critical mass of walk-able amenities (with Covent Garden Market being the best example), then there is Wortley Village (which is really great) and adjacent "Old South" neighborhood, with intact 1920s-1940s development spanning a couple of square kilometres.

Some other nice neighborhoods (without the walk-able amenities) aside (e.g., Old North, Old East), that is about it. Much of the rest of the city is a land of stroads, big-box-barf, commieblocks, cookie-cutter snouthouses, and McMansions.

[whatnext]

The new feudalism, via Statscan reports:


Overview
This article examines the relationship between parental residential property ownership and the likelihood of their children born in the 1990s to own residential property in 2021. This is the first in a series of articles investigating intergenerational housing outcomes in Canada.

Key findings
-People born in the 1990s whose parents were homeowners were twice as likely to own a home in 2021 than those whose parents were non-homeowners.
-The adult children of multiple-property owners were nearly three times more likely to be homeowners in 2021 than those whose parents were non-homeowners.
-The majority (52.8%) of people born in the 1990s who own multiple properties also have parents who own multiple properties, while 10% of those who own multiple properties have non-homeowner parents....

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/.../00004-eng.htm

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by someone123

This doesn't really pass the sniff test as far as current prices go in major markets like Toronto or Vancouver. There isn't any reasonable adjustment of wages that could be made such that real estate would become widely affordable. Material from 2019 is outdated now as prices have increased while interest costs multiplied.

If you're talking about 2010's Vancouver rents or Toronto housing prices, sure, raising wages by some fraction through unionization or something might have helped. Those days are gone.

The main drivers these days are immigration-driven population growth relative to new supply and financial/regulatory considerations relating to housing itself that leads to bubbly pricing. I don't think these clearly map on to the NDP vs. Cons. The NDP have had more of a role in the current government that has overseen a catastrophic deterioration of housing affordability in the last few years. IMO the Canadian public doesn't really grasp the magnitude of what has gone wrong and there are so many third rails and sacred cows in Canada that politicians can't generally propose the kind of policy shift that's needed (fiscal discipline, halting human QE and live with miserable economic growth numbers, building lots of housing even if it annoys NIMBYs, etc.).

If you're talking about things that happened more recently in the covid and post-covid eras, those issues aren't Canada specific and in fact Canada has little ability to even influence them significantly. There's a global housing affordability crisis so trying to map any of these global issues onto an NDP-Cons frame work doesn't pass the "sniff test". So I assumed people on here would be sufficiently aware of that as to be safe in assuming any domestic partisan discussion would be talking about Canada-specific challenges. If the main drivers really were immigration-driven population growth then it wouldn't be a global issue that affects places that don't have Canada's immigration levels and population growth. Again, sniff test, etc.

[Blitz]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Vanishingly few people (compared to Amsterdam, which I have been to twice) in London (Ontario, which I currently live in) live an Amsterdam-like lifestyle. There is a pocket downtown with a critical mass of walk-able amenities (with Covent Garden Market being the best example), then there is Wortley Village (which is really great) and adjacent "Old South" neighborhood, with intact 1920s-1940s development spanning a couple of square kilometres.

Some other nice neighborhoods (without the walk-able amenities) aside (e.g., Old North, Old East), that is about it. Much of the rest of the city is a land of stroads, big-box-barf, commieblocks, cookie-cutter snouthouses, and McMansions.

I think I do (I live in downtown London, shop at Covent Garden Market, and commute by bike/scooter/bus). But yeah, the main problem with London is that the rest of the city is just a mass of strip malls and clogged arterial roads. At least Windsor and Hamilton have several interesting (urban/gritty) commercial districts scattered throughout the city.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

If you're talking about things that happened more recently in the covid and post-covid eras, those issues aren't Canada specific and in fact Canada has little ability to even influence them significantly. There's a global housing affordability crisis so trying to map any of these global issues onto an NDP-Cons frame work doesn't pass the "sniff test". So I assumed people on here would be sufficiently aware of that as to be safe in assuming any domestic partisan discussion would be talking about Canada-specific challenges. If the main drivers really were immigration-driven population growth then it wouldn't be a global issue that affects places that don't have Canada's immigration levels and population growth. Again, sniff test, etc.

The housing crisis, the current rents-to-wages ratio, the current real-estate-prices-to-wages ratio, the falling real wages from flooding the labor market with warm bodies, are all “Canada-specific challenges”.

Small regional colleges in our peer countries don’t have concentration camps of tents around them, AFAIK. That’s a fully Canadian-designed “thing”.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

If you're talking about things that happened more recently in the covid and post-covid eras, those issues aren't Canada specific and in fact Canada has little ability to even influence them significantly. There's a global housing affordability crisis so trying to map any of these global issues onto an NDP-Cons frame work doesn't pass the "sniff test". So I assumed people on here would be sufficiently aware of that as to be safe in assuming any domestic partisan discussion would be talking about Canada-specific challenges. If the main drivers really were immigration-driven population growth then it wouldn't be a global issue that affects places that don't have Canada's immigration levels and population growth. Again, sniff test, etc.

A global crisis that just happens to be far worse in Canada for absolutely no reason whatsoever and certainly nothing to do with political decisions. Makes total sense.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-...ng-Prices.jpeg

Reminder: The USA (and other countries like Iceland) prices started off from a relative trough due to their correction after 2008, so their growth appears more more significant than if we had looked at a twenty year time span when in fact its more of a return to normalcy. We never had a price correction in 2008 but even despite that, we still have seen housing prices grow 50% faster here than our neighbors to the south despite becoming relatively poorer.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/...es-since-2010/

If this doesn't pass your sniff test, you've likely gone nose blind.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by lio45

The housing crisis, the current rents-to-wages ratio, the current real-estate-prices-to-wages ratio, the falling real wages from flooding the labor market with warm bodies, are all “Canada-specific challenges”.

Small regional colleges in our peer countries don’t have concentration camps of tents around them, AFAIK. That’s a fully Canadian-designed “thing”.

Real wages are not falling and are growing pretty strongly in Canada

[Nite]

Originally Posted by theman23

Reminder: The USA (and other countries like Iceland) prices started off from a relative trough due to their correction after 2008, so their growth appears more more significant than if we had looked at a twenty year time span when in fact its more of a return to normalcy. We never had a price correction in 2008 but even despite that, we still have seen housing prices grow 50% faster here than our neighbors to the south despite becoming relatively poorer.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/...es-since-2010/

If this doesn't pass your sniff test, you've likely gone nose blind.

it took 2 years for prices to recover to the 2008 levels in Canada from the 2008 correction.


https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QCAR628BIS

[Hecate]

Originally Posted by Nite

Real wages are not falling and are growing pretty strongly in Canada

lol, real wages that can’t even get you a one bedroom apartment in most of our major cities? Seriously.

https://jacobin.com/2023/08/canada-w...and%20%2415.25.

[KnoxfordGuy]

According to the StatsCan population clock, Canada passed 40.5 million people November 20th. Cool. Also, yikes. A bit too fast now. Slow down! Haha

[Nite]

Originally Posted by Hecate

lol, real wages that can’t even get you a one bedroom apartment in most of our major cities? Seriously.

https://jacobin.com/2023/08/canada-w...and%20%2415.25.

The article is mostly about minimum wage workers not being able to afford a 1-bedroom apartment.
minimum wages are controlled by the provincial governments who can raise them at any time however.

as for average works:

"The CCPA’s report observes that the average hourly wage required to afford a one-bedroom apartment while working full-time is $25.96 in Ontario, $27.54 in British Columbia, $21.42 in Alberta, and $16.62 in Quebec."

https://jacobin.com/2023/08/canada-w...and%20%2415.25

and the average wage in Canada is:

On a year-over-year basis, average hourly wages rose 4.8% (+$1.56 to $34.08) in October, following an increase of 5.0% in September.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...31103a-eng.htm

[Nite]

Inflation continues to fall: now at 3.1% for October

In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.1% on a year-over-year basis, down from a 3.8% gain in September.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...31121a-eng.htm

[Hecate]

Originally Posted by Nite

The article is mostly about minimum wage workers not being able to afford a 1-bedroom apartment.
minimum wages are controlled by the provincial governments who can raise them at any time however.

as for average works:



https://jacobin.com/2023/08/canada-w...and%20%2415.25

and the average wage in Canada is:


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...31103a-eng.htm

Youre looking at averages… that’s not how the real world works however. You have to look at the median which in Ontario is $27 an hour. So you have almost half the people earning incomes not making enough to live alone.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Nite

Real wages are not falling and are growing pretty strongly in Canada

When measured against the essentials (food on the table, roof over one’s head) they are certainly falling.

As you illustrate though, it’s still possible to try to claim that average Canadians live more luxurious lives right now than before, you just have to pick the right metric (attainability of iPhone computing power, for example).

[Nite]

Originally Posted by lio45

When measured against the essentials (food on the table, roof over one’s head) they are certainly falling.

As you illustrate though, it’s still possible to try to claim that average Canadians live more luxurious lives right now than before, you just have to pick the right metric (attainability of iPhone computing power, for example).

Shelter and Food however is only about 45% of what Canadians spend their money on, when you include the other 55%, they are more than ahead now than a year ago with regard to wages.

[Hecate]

Originally Posted by Nite

Shelter and Food however is only about 45% of what Canadians spend their money on, when you include the other 55%, they are more than ahead now than a year ago with regard to wages.

This is ridiculous. Food inflation has skyrocketed since 2021, as have housing costs. What isn’t clicking or you? Every major news source in this country has countless articles regarding our falling standard of living.

[Hecate]

This has to be trolling.

[MolsonExport]

Foodbanks.

Pipelines.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by Nite

Shelter and Food however is only about 45% of what Canadians spend their money on, when you include the other 55%, they are more than ahead now than a year ago with regard to wages.

All the transportation savings from working from home got gobbled up by housing.

Real estate is to Canada what entropy is to thermodynamics.

[MonctonRad]

I found this interesting infographic on Retail Talk & Share (a competing board here in NB), and thought it belonged here:



This infographic has an NB bias, but includes all CMAs in Atlantic Canada.

While all the cities included show a healthy growth rate in the senior population, in terms of meaningful growth, ie the growth that influences economic growth and sustainability (working age and youth), then the growth centres are a little more select:

20 year Percentage Increase in the Youth Population:

1) Moncton - 22.2%
2) Fredericton - 10.7%
3) St. John's - 1.6%
4) Halifax - 1.3%

20 Year Percentage Increase in Working Age Population:

1) Moncton - 30.2%
2) Halifax - 24.6%
3) Fredericton - 22.5%
4) St. John's - 16.9%

It is really interesting to speculate why the working age population in Halifax is growing healthily, but, there is very little growth in the youth population in the city. One could posit this has a lot to do with the number of universities in the city, and the migration of students into the city to attend post secondary education. It might also have something to do with the white collar nature of the city and most 20-something immigrants being Yuppie DINKs as a result.

At the same time, why is the youth population growth rate in Moncton so high? Is this a reflection of the type of immigrants the city is getting? It would be really interesting to see if the Muslim population growth rate in the city is that much higher than it is in Halifax.

Early this year, the Anglophone East School Board in NB (which includes Moncton) made a ridiculous request of the provincial government for something like a dozen new schools in southeastern NB. I guess they were on to something.........