Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[adamuptownsj]

Musical chairs begin to develop in the Fredericton area.

David Coon is running in Fredericton-Lincoln, which stays a Green/PC toss-up. I don't think PC Mary Wilson will challenge him, she'll probably stick with Oromocto-Sunbury. I would say Coon is quite favoured to hold the seat, but Lincoln may not be the friendliest turf for him.

Susan Holt confirms she will run in either the new, open Fredericton South-Silverwood, or stay up north in a very red safe seat. Not sure how to handicap the seat. The Green vote was inflated by Coon, and much of the PC vote was for Cardy and may not be 'traditional' PC voters. Call it a pure tossup for now.

Cardy's departure and Coon's choice impact another race: Jeff Carr is on my retirement list, but with Cardy confirmed gone, he theoretically has a path to re-election in Hanwell-New Maryland. I am 99% sure he's in bad graces with Higgs. Retirement would probably free up some time with his Liberal squeeze, who I will not name here.

Holt categorically denied running in any other riding, so Jill Green across the river finds herself in the same position as Carr.

Story: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...ding-1.6963036

I'm surprised to see any electoral movement now. They must know something we don't. I firmly believe Higgs wants the current ridings and their associations dissolved and replaced with new ones before he'll call an election, and he'll want some red meat bills passed before then. No fall election. Maybe a winter election, but I consider spring most likely.

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Fredericton South-Silverwood is technically an open, new riding, with Cardy retiring. 40 PC-39 Green-14 Liberal-5 PA in 2020; 39 Green-25 Liberal-22 PC-12 PA in 2018.

Fredericton Lincoln was 37 PC-34 Green-22 Liberal-6 PA in 2020; 32 Green-26 Liberal-23 PC-16 PA in 2018. This is technically Coon's seat, but he would probably do better in the other, which AFAIK Holt lives in.

Maybe she challenges Jill Green in Fredericton North, which the Liberals actually BARELY won in 2018. 2020, 42 PC-31 Green-18 Liberal-8 PA. 2018, 32 Liberal-28 PC-21 PA-17 Green.

[adamuptownsj]

Elections NB is taking steps to prepare for something. The PC rebels are all forced into retirement, Dunn and Green excepted. CBC's Jacques Poitras has signed a month-to-month lease for Andrea Anderson-Mason's garden shed. All signs indicate an election on the horizon.

The legislative calendar has regular sitting returning on October 17. I presume some red-meat bills arrive in short order.

[darkharbour]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Elections NB is taking steps to prepare for something. The PC rebels are all forced into retirement, Dunn and Green excepted. CBC's Jacques Poitras has signed a month-to-month lease for Andrea Anderson-Mason's garden shed. All signs indicate an election on the horizon.

The legislative calendar has regular sitting returning on October 17. I presume some red-meat bills arrive in short order.

I'm predicting an election call some time around October 16th, get ready!

[adamuptownsj]

I'm personally going to predict it will come a little later. Higgs needs base-rallying bills to pass... or fail, on the backs of the rebels.

[MonctonRad]

I wonder if the recent electoral success of the Manitoba NDP will give Premier Higgs some pause with regard to his plans for a fall writ..........

[gtsoc]

There was speculation in the summer that Wayne Long would be taking on Bill Oliver in Kings Centre in the Provincial Election, but if an Election is called this fall he will not be running provincially.

[adamuptownsj]

Saint John Councillors Harris and Killen stripped of their committee roles for interfering in the CUPE negotiations, per the TJ.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I wonder if the recent electoral success of the Manitoba NDP will give Premier Higgs some pause with regard to his plans for a fall writ..........

I don't see it having any effect. Apples and oranges. In Manitoba, the NDP ran to the center from a strong position, and the PCs there have totally different issues than Higgs.

The Manitoba PCs have even worse vote distribution than the NB Liberals. If the NB Liberals won the popular vote 45-42, like the Manitoba NDP just did, it would return a healthy PC majority here.

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

It seems like a election is going to happen here in NB sooner rather than later. Just here in Saint John multiple city councilors are announcing their runs and the Liberals are holding a nomination meeting next week for Saint John Harbour. What do y'all think about the possibility of a election?

[darkharbour]

Originally Posted by CharlotteCountyLogan

It seems like a election is going to happen here in NB sooner rather than later. Just here in Saint John multiple city councilors are announcing their runs and the Liberals are holding a nomination meeting next week for Saint John Harbour. What do y'all think about the possibility of a election?

I've heard a number of folks talking about Oct 6th as the date it gets called, but who knows.

[sailor734]

Both the Liberals and PC's seem to think it's coming. They are scrambling to get nomination meetings complete and candidates ready to go.

[sailor734]

If Trevor Holder is gone I wonder about the Liberals having a decent chance to pick up Saint John Portland

[nwalbert]

Originally Posted by sailor734

If Trevor Holder is gone I wonder about the Liberals having a decent chance to pick up Saint John Portland

That is a pretty historically blue area.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by nwalbert

That is a pretty historically blue area.

Leo McAdam held it for the Liberals for 8 years before Holder.

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

I had a interview today with David Coon and he believes that a election will be called tomorrow thr 6th or Monday the 9th. He also said that the PC bus is in Sussex ready to go
Election call will be any day now

[darkharbour]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Leo McAdam held it for the Liberals for 8 years before Holder.

The Liberals also have a pretty high profile candidate lined up for the riding, so I expect it could turn red for the first time in decades.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by darkharbour

The Liberals also have a pretty high profile candidate lined up for the riding, so I expect it could turn red for the first time in decades.

Yes, I know......grudge match?

[ivegotaname]

I am looking forward to New Brunswick state of the province in Janurary if Higgs calls an election even if he does not it is still interesting

[MonctonRad]

It appears that Higgs has backed off his early election threat. He was really close to making the call, with rumours of his campaign bus idling in a parking lot in Sussex. I wonder if there were some late polling numbers which caused him to change his mind? He seems a bit more contrite, and, has made peace with Daniel Allain.

There's something going on here.......

[MonctonRad]

PCs choose Christian conservative as first candidate for 2024 election
Higgs praises ‘the pure ability’ of activist and broadcaster Faytene Grasseschi

Jacques Poitras · CBC News · Posted: Dec 20, 2023 7:25 AM AST | Last Updated: 3 hours ago
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...date-1.7064801


Faytene talking to one of her supporters at the nomination meeting, appropriately dressed in camo.

It appears that Faytene has Higgs unwavering support, but, I wish there was some way to prevent nomination meetings from being overwhelmed by outside candidates showing up with several hundred new party-members-of-convenience, only there to hijack the meeting. Personally, I would institute a rule that only party members in good standing for at least 2-3 years have the right to vote.

The party nomination stage is the weakest link in our democracy.