VIA Rail

[VANRIDERFAN]

Originally Posted by acottawa

How much air travel would it reduce? HSR makes sense for trips in the 200-900 km range. Shorter than that most people will drive or use commuter rail or drive. Longer than that it still makes way more sense to fly.

My bias is on full display with that dream scenario.

I absolutely detest flying. The pain to get to the airport, the check in, the security screening, the departure lounge, the boarding, the taxi-ing, the squeeze in the seats, the flight, the arrival, the baggage carousel, and the departure from the airport. I hate every second of it.

The train (in that future scenario) will be much more civilized than the sardine crush that air travel is. It takes a full day to fly or drive anywhere anyways, so why not take an electric generated train?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

How much air travel would it reduce? HSR makes sense for trips in the 200-900 km range. Shorter than that most people will drive or use commuter rail or drive. Longer than that it still makes way more sense to fly.

Given the number of flights in the Corridor, there's room to both reduce the number of flights and the size of aircraft used. This is certainly possible with the TOM triangle. But also routes like Montreal-Quebec, Toronto-London, and even Toronto-Windsor. The shorter routes lack frequency and tend to have pre-boarding times that reduce the value of flying. The longer routes tend to have travel times with pre-boarding and airport access that would be close to any 300 kph HSR with higher costs.

Reducing air travel shouldn't be the primary motivation though. Improving connectivity and extending regional economic connections should be the primary motivation. Reducing passenger air travel demand is a byproduct.

Something that should be considered is that a service that can adequately service TOM, would actually allow the closure of YTZ. That's a lot of valuable real estate that could be redeveloped. We might also be able put off further airport expansion at just about every major airport in the Corridor if HFR/HSR is done correctly.

[Taeolas]

Maritime service is long overdue for improvements but it probably isn't on anyone's radar.

An ideal set up for the Maritimes would be to restore Moncton as the Hub.

Set up twice daily, 7 day a week service to SJ and Halifax to Moncton.

And then have Moncton to QC running once daily in each direction, 7 day a week.

So Moncton would get 5 incoming trains each day and 5 outgoing trains a day, and SJ to Halifax would be a reasonable route for people who want to do a weekend trip or similar plans.

All routes should be runnable at highway speeds or above (ideally 150kph or so ) so it could compete with driving. (Especially for the SJ and Halifax legs). The QC to Moncton leg would be rougher since it doesn't follow the direct routes as is, but higher speeds there would still help. (And really it would be more like a Moncton to Riviere de Loup route and Riviere de Loup would be a Gaspe hub with more links to QC in general)

Medium Long term plans would be to get Fredericton back on the rail network somehow with links to Moncton, as well as maybe pushing for a Saint John to Bangor link.

Setting up Turo as a sub hub to serve upper Nova Scotia and Cape Breton eventually would also be something to consider.

[Truenorth00]

The Long Distance Fleet needs renewal. And that's the VIA priority in the immediate term. If that doesn't happen, long distance services get cut.

Service expansion like improving services in the Maritimes are not on the radar or even close to being on the radar. They are dependent on an expansion of subsidies. I doubt the coming CPC government will be interested in that.

[1overcosc]

The big fantasy idea in the Maritimes is an HSR link to the Corridor, but not through Quebec City.

Make a sealed 320km/h HSR route through Northern New England that goes Montreal-Sherbrooke-Saint John-Moncton-Halifax. No stops in the US, sealed transit with no border checks.

By cutting through Maine the entire Halifax-Montreal distance is less than 1000km. If combined with Corridor HSR you could go all the way from Halifax to Toronto in about 7 hours. Saint John to Montreal would be less than 3 hours.

That's reasonably competitive to flying and blows driving out of the water thanks to HSR getting to cut through the states. There would be a huge increase in casual travel between the Corridor and the Maritimes. Being less than 3 hours from Montreal would massively transform Saint John.

This is the sort of bold project that could transform the country and reduce a huge number of flights.

[Taeolas]

If the Maritimes isn't on Via's radar, then we really should be thinking of setting up our own regional bus/rail system; a Maritime GO Network basically. The problem is, the Halifax-Moncton link would be key for such a system, and since that crosses provincial borders that would get most people saying "let VIA do it." (or "It's VIA's domain stay out"), even though VIA clearly shows no intention of doing anything.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

If the Maritimes isn't on Via's radar, then we really should be thinking of setting up our own regional bus/rail system; a Maritime GO Network basically. The problem is, the Halifax-Moncton link would be key for such a system, and since that crosses provincial borders that would get most people saying "let VIA do it." (or "It's VIA's domain stay out"), even though VIA clearly shows no intention of doing anything.

Maritime Bus essentially is this.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

The big fantasy idea in the Maritimes is an HSR link to the Corridor, but not through Quebec City.

Make a sealed 320km/h HSR route through Northern New England that goes Montreal-Sherbrooke-Saint John-Moncton-Halifax. No stops in the US, sealed transit with no border checks.

By cutting through Maine the entire Halifax-Montreal distance is less than 1000km. If combined with Corridor HSR you could go all the way from Halifax to Toronto in about 7 hours. Saint John to Montreal would be less than 3 hours.

That's reasonably competitive to flying and blows driving out of the water thanks to HSR getting to cut through the states. There would be a huge increase in casual travel between the Corridor and the Maritimes. Being less than 3 hours from Montreal would massively transform Saint John.

This is the sort of bold project that could transform the country and reduce a huge number of flights.

The math doesn't really work on something like that. You'd need some crazy Maglev to make that trek competitive with air. And the Maritimes doesn't have the population to justify that. There's only two domestic corridors where HSR could really be competitive with air Quebec-Windsor and Calgary-Edmonton. The Maritimes could theoretically start an intercity rail system that was centered on Moncton and intraprovincially Halifax. But I'm not sure how much interest there is in the Maritimes for this.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

If the Maritimes isn't on Via's radar, then we really should be thinking of setting up our own regional bus/rail system; a Maritime GO Network basically. The problem is, the Halifax-Moncton link would be key for such a system, and since that crosses provincial borders that would get most people saying "let VIA do it." (or "It's VIA's domain stay out"), even though VIA clearly shows no intention of doing anything.

Well, VIA has offered to do stuff in the Maritimes such as the statement of interest to operate a Halifax commuter rail service. But VIA doesn't own any track here and CN hasn't been that cooperative, actually reducing some stretches of double track down to single in greater Halifax and forcing passenger trains to wait in sidings for freight traffic for instance. In order for the service to be competitive in terms of travel times, frequency and reliability it would require either dedicated passenger track or more investment and control over the existing CN track on that core route and the provinces don't seem interested in that kind of cost which is reserved for highways.

As it stands, there is already a Maritime-specific bus service - the creatively named "Maritime Bus" - but it's mostly non-subsidized. Post-pandemic it has fairly poor frequencies and there's no service to the southern part of NS.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The math doesn't really work on something like that. You'd need some crazy Maglev to make that trek competitive with air. And the Maritimes doesn't have the population to justify that. There's only two domestic corridors where HSR could really be competitive with air Quebec-Windsor and Calgary-Edmonton. The Maritimes could theoretically start an intercity rail system that was centered on Moncton and intraprovincially Halifax. But I'm not sure how much interest there is in the Maritimes for this.

I think the biggest issue is that the US would be a major obstacle by demanding exorbitant fees and unnecessarily high security provisions. And while Northern Maine is mostly unpopulated, mostly isn't entirely. So there would be fights about land acquisition. If this was being built within domestic territory then eminent domain would be an option. But for US jurisdictions to use it on behalf of a foreign entity for a project that wouldn't directly benefit US citizens it would be politically challenging. They'd have to show they were getting something very lucrative in return (either us paying through the nose or giving the US access to land in Canada, etc.) or Fox News would be sensationalizing every night about what a travesty it was. How the Federal or state gov was forcing US citizens or companies off US land at the behest of foreigners.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

I think the biggest issue is that the US would be a major obstacle by demanding exorbitant fees and unnecessarily high security provisions. And while Northern Maine is mostly unpopulated, mostly isn't entirely. So there would be fights about land acquisition. If this was being built within domestic territory then eminent domain would be an option. But for US jurisdictions to use it on behalf of a foreign entity for a project that wouldn't directly benefit US citizens it would be politically challenging. They'd have to show they were getting something very lucrative in return (either us paying through the nose or giving the US access to land in Canada, etc.) or Fox News would be sensationalizing every night about what a travesty it was. How the Federal or state gov was forcing US citizens or companies off US land at the behest of foreigners.

Rough distance says Montreal-Fredricton is 750km and 550km through Maine. The latter is on par with Toronto-Montreal or Madrid-Barcelona. Even less is saved if we're looking at Québec City to Fredericton. 200 km isn't actually all that great to justify the hassles of cutting across the border. The problem for this Maritime dream is that it will never work unless built at the highest speeds. A flight from Montreal to Fredericton takes 1.5 hrs max gate to gate and probably 3 hrs airport to airport. Beating that would requires a non-stop HSR service of greater than 200kph in the best case (cutting through the US), a speed that requires full corridor segregation and grade separation at all crossings, the whole way. I don't think the Maritimes will have the population to justify those kind of costs in our lifetime.

[ssiguy]

I wouldn't hold my breath for a Port/Sea/Van route and I don't see it happening until at least 2050 and even that's very optimistic.

I'm sure Trudeau will announce, right before the election rite is dropped, his support for the program but only because he knows it doesn't as it will never get used. 90% of the route is in the US so it is a US decision and they have much larger priorities.

[someone123]

I don't think the Maine route is far-fetched in terms of engineering or economics but it depends on border politics in the USA being more reasonable and there's no sign of that changing anytime soon. If in theory it were possible to allow border clearance free transit via northern Maine it would make sense to put a highway and rail line through there instead of running traffic through northern NB. With that route built, adding passenger rail would be much easier. It would not be a project of building a new corridor just for passenger rail through the Maine wilderness. 200 km/h along a new corridor running through the woods isn't that outlandish either.

The CN line into Halifax is probably the only route in the Maritimes that follows along congested roadways for a decent length, has decent population density, etc. Halifax-Truro would essentially be a commuter train. Halifax-Moncton could be useful for a lot of trips, and both cities are growing a lot. The other routes in the region would be much lower demand.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by someone123

I don't think the Maine route is far-fetched in terms of engineering or economics but it depends on border politics in the USA being more reasonable and there's no sign of that changing anytime soon. If in theory it were possible to allow border clearance free transit via northern Maine it would make sense to put a highway and rail line through there instead of running traffic through northern NB. With that route built, adding passenger rail would be much easier. It would not be a project of building a new corridor just for passenger rail through the Maine wilderness. 200 km/h along a new corridor running through the woods isn't that outlandish either.

The economics are absolutely insane. 200 kph requires full corridor segregation and grade separation from every goat path to road to railway. Even if we're extremely optimistic, and talking something like $20M/km, that means our best case (fantasy) scenario is $16B to get from Montreal to Fredericton, a metro of little over 100k. There is absolutely no way to make that make sense.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The economics are absolutely insane. 200 kph requires full corridor segregation and grade separation from every goat path to road to railway. Even if we're extremely optimistic, and talking something like $20M/km, that means our best case (fantasy) scenario is $16B to get from Montreal to Fredericton, a metro of little over 100k. There is absolutely no way to make that make sense.

I think if it happened, there would potentially be higher speed segments where possible. A lot of Maine doesn't even have goat paths. There would be no hard requirement that every segment be 200 km/h.

The route isn't for Fredericton and Montreal, it would be the main corridor connecting Atlantic Canada to the rest of the country. There'd be a controlled-access highway and the rail line would go in the median. The highway would connect the TCH west of Fredericton to Sherbrooke, so 350 km of new highway or so.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by someone123

I think if it happened, there would potentially be higher speed segments where possible. A lot of Maine doesn't even have goat paths. There would be no hard requirement that every segment be 200 km/h.

Where there's no goat paths, there's terrain which requires even more expensive geo-engineering. $20M/km is a ridiculously cheap guesstimate. There will be segments 10x that price.

Originally Posted by someone123

The route isn't for Fredericton and Montreal, it would be the main corridor connecting Atlantic Canada to the rest of the country. There'd be a controlled-access highway and the rail line would go in the median. The highway would actually connect Fredericton to Sherbrooke, which is about 400 km.

That's my point. If it costs $16B just to reach Fredericton in a fantasy scenario, we're probably talking $40B to reach Halifax. At that point, we might as well just pay every Maritimer $20k to move.

There's no business case for HSR to connect regions where the population centres are close to a thousand km apart with very little in between. There is probably a case to build 177 kph (protected not grade separated) lines both to and within the Maritimes. At $10-20M/km that's actually achievable. It won't replace flights to the region though.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

That's my point. If it costs $16B just to reach Fredericton in a fantasy scenario, we're probably talking $40B to reach Halifax. At that point, we might as well just pay every Maritimer $20k to move.

The GDP of Atlantic Canada is around $150B per year and the Maritimes are around $100B a year.

I don't think a high-speed rail corridor would be built along the whole route. It would be an alternate to the rail and highway corridor segments running through northern NB and portions could be upgraded where it makes sense. Of course, Canada and the USA being how they are, this reasonable scenario is nowhere close to being implementable right now because of border issues and poor rail corridor management.

[Nouvellecosse]

I'm also concerned that adding a new convenient road shortcut in the form of a high quality, controlled-access highway would reduce the demand for rail since it would lessen the time savings compared to driving. Or conversely, the HSR would reduce the demand for the road. Yet having both together would probably quadruple the overall cost. Road vehicles can handle steeper grades and sharper turns than HSR even with controlled-access highways. And rail can fit in narrower spaces than a multi-lane divided highway while requiring less servicing like rest stop and gas stations. So if they're forced to share a route you get all the demanding, cost increasing elements of each while losing the cost reduction advantages of either.

[DirectionNorth]

Originally Posted by someone123

The GDP of Atlantic Canada is around $150B per year and the Maritimes are around $100B a year.

I don't think a high-speed rail corridor would be built along the whole route. It would be an alternate to the rail and highway corridor segments running through northern NB and portions could be upgraded where it makes sense. Of course, Canada and the USA being how they are, this reasonable scenario is nowhere close to being implementable right now because of border issues and poor rail corridor management.

I think even the business case for anything more than cheap incremental upgrades to the Ocean (and even that hinges on the fate of the long-distance fleet) is dubious. There just aren't enough people for 1000 km of new build rail, no matter how low-cost (ie. slow).

There's less than 10,000 AADT on the A-85 near the NB border, and no doubt many are local travelers; I count about two dozen daily flights from YHZ to the Corridor.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by someone123

The GDP of Atlantic Canada is around $150B per year and the Maritimes are around $100B a year.

So all of the Maritimes basically have the same GDP as Ottawa-Gatineau distributed over a massive area. In a country where we can't build HSR in a linear Corridor of 1100km with half the country's population and GDP, the case to spend tens of billions to reach a region with a single digit percentage of national population and GDP is going to be tough.

Maybe some days when QW and CalEd both have HSR, we can talk about higher speed rail inside the Maritimes. Hope we get there in my lifetime.