BC Political Discussion - BC Election 2017 May 9th

[Bcasey25raptor]

I'm going to also predict the NDP will win this election.

Why do I think this?

Heres why
1) anger over housing costs and poverty rates will stick, metro Vancouver will probably swing more in favour of the NDP this time around due to housing issues
2) I see a rise in green support, but something people forget is how much of the green vote actually comes from the right, in the past 2 by-elections, the greens made gains at the cost of the LINOs, and the NDP but to a lesser extent. If the greens rise to 10% support province wide, not only will they win at least 3 seats, but they will also eat into LINO support, especially in metro Vancouver

[urbancanadian]

I disagree that the NDP has a good chance of victory. Past elections have demonstrated that the anger shown in the polls doesn't always show at the ballot box. So while most people will want a change in government, they will most likely take the safe route and vote for the status quo.

As far as the economy goes (the top issue in every election), BC is doing well compared with the rest of the country. But while the budget is technically balanced, it's very clear that this is only possible due to the piles of money being brought in from housing-related taxes and the benefits of soaring real estate prices. The problem is, however, that the media will not pay sufficient attention to this and voters will generally only pick up on the technical numbers.

Also remember that the Liberals' "action" schedule is massively back-loaded so you'll see construction start right before the election on the Massey Bridge, a bunch of interchanges, and other high-profile infrastructure projects. You'll also see completions happen right before the election, such as the Evergreen Line - all serving as distractions from the more important issues.

Add to this with the fact that corporate money still plays such an important role in our political system. The liberals are awash in cash while the NDP are still in debt from the last election.

Combine these factors together (and you could add more - just read the first post), and you have what looks like an easy victory for the Liberals next year. Of course, I'd be happy to be proven wrong.

[Metro-One]

Originally Posted by BCPhil

The way I see it, is that the 1/3 of the project funding from the feds is a given. If we had gotten our ducks in a row and won the plebiscite, the federal funding would have been unlocked by now.

What I'm thinking they could do, is cover Translink's 1/3. That's the extra spending, above and beyond what they have (the conservatives anyway) already said they would do.

Then you have the feds contributing their original 1/3, the province its 1/3, and then the feds under the new infrastructure investment plan contribute another 1/3.

It's just my hunch, but it has so many benefits and so few drawbacks.

It gets the ball rolling on a huge, nationally visible project that would actually benefit BC's and Vancouver's economy (and Justin's second favorite place) and makes the federal government look like they are solving problems that were at impasse under the Conservatives, while not completely shattering our 3x1/3 cost sharing model for other (smaller) projects. And construction won't significantly start this year, so they are costs that can be mostly deferred to later budgets.

Would love for this to happen, but i am not holding my breath for it.

While I do support the federal liberals (and were my choice during the election) they are still politicians.

They will simply re-announce the 1/3 funding that was already in place.

If any new funding is given, it will be more money for other projects covering the federal governments 1/3 commitment.

So instead of just having one project with 1/3 the money in place, we will have 2 or more!

Giving us several projects that will never happen in our current situation.

Seriously, I really wish the BC liberals would just bite the bullet and give our transit projects the extra cash. Would make so much sense if they want to win the next election.

I don't want to have to choose between increased spending on transit or road / bridge upgrades. I want both! Pisses me off that there is no party that seems to live in the real world where investing in both is a net positive for Metro-Van and the Province.

[Kisai]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

I wish BC had a Liberal party and not whatever you call this provincial party.

I call them LINOs or "Liberal in name only".

I don't like the NDP, they would be a disaster for BC, in fact they have already proven to be so (remember the 90s).

But I equally despise the BC LINOs. All I want is a centrist option but in this banana republic of a province, centrism isn't offered to me.

It's been well known since day one that the current BC Liberal party (as of 1991) has no connection to the Federal party, and that it's largely people who were the former BC Social Credit Party. And you know why we dumped the SoCreds? Mr Vander Zalm created endless controversy. We had 7 consecutive SC premiers until the NDP won once, immediately started to wreck things, and we went back the SC for 4 more elections.

So historically, the province votes Conservative. That is the "Status quo", a third party will only come at the expense of the NDP, since I doubt a more conservative party would be tolerated.

So my prediction is we'll only see the Liberals dumped if a third party appears that replaces the NDP, or too many people who vote Liberal stay home and don't vote. The NDP isn't offering anything endearing, and you don't win the hearts and minds of the public by not presenting solutions.

Like the kinds of things that make me like the NDP leadership even less are all these opportunistic media interviews where Horgan just goes "The government is wrong" and offers nothing.

The surveys I answer sometimes about political issues in BC, I had to actually check who the third party was because I hadn't even realized there was one. (Hint: BC Conservative party) and it's starting to look like we might see a vote split if they gain traction, but that will only result in the NDP winning (see Alberta's last provincial election.)

[cornholio]

I want a strong BC separatist party to come around. I would support them in a heart beat. Ottawa is 3 time zones away, there have only been two prime ministers born west of Windsor Ontario and both combined served only about 12 months which doesn't actually count. I want BC run fully out of BC, I want nothing to do with eastern Canada beyond a fair country to country relationship. Eastern Canada offers BC nothing, and I would say holds BC back. I would be willing to split with Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan but the logistics of it are impossible. It has to be one province at a time.

I hope one day my dream can come true and BC can separate from Canada, which really has nothing to do with BC yet runs our affairs from 3 time zones away. I can guarantee BC would be much better of and go through a boon. It would be one of the wealthiest countries in the world so long as it maintained a un corrupt, neutral and strong centralized leadership (something I think is easily possible in this province). There is enough of a diversified economy and population to support BC and everything seems to point to the ability to quickly build a strong national pride, something that is being stripped by eastern Canada right now. Because for someone from BC what is Canada? I can tell you its not BC..

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by cornholio

I want a strong BC separatist party to come around. I would support them in a heart beat. Ottawa is 3 time zones away, there have only been two prime ministers born west of Windsor Ontario and both combined served only about 12 months which doesn't actually count. I want BC run fully out of BC, I want nothing to do with eastern Canada beyond a fair country to country relationship. Eastern Canada offers BC nothing, and I would say holds BC back. I would be willing to split with Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan but the logistics of it are impossible. It has to be one province at a time.

I hope one day my dream can come true and BC can separate from Canada, which really has nothing to do with BC yet runs our affairs from 3 time zones away. I can guarantee BC would be much better of and go through a boon. It would be one of the wealthiest countries in the world so long as it maintained a un corrupt, neutral and strong centralized leadership (something I think is easily possible in this province). There is enough of a diversified economy and population to support BC and everything seems to point to the ability to quickly build a strong national pride, something that is being stripped by eastern Canada right now. Because for someone from BC what is Canada? I can tell you its not BC..

Keep alberta and the rest of the prairies out and I'll agree with you.

In fact, add Washington and Oregon and the 3 subnational regions can form their own nation.

[CurtisVerbatim]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Keep alberta and the rest of the prairies out and I'll agree with you.

In fact, add Washington and Oregon and the 3 subnational regions can form their own nation.

This would be amazing

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Keep alberta and the rest of the prairies out and I'll agree with you.

In fact, add Washington and Oregon and the 3 subnational regions can form their own nation.

You mean this? Not happening in any of our lifetimes, unfortunately.

[Stingray2004]

Seems that a bit of political history is apropos here in terms of the BC NDP's three election victories:

1. 1972 - W.A.C. Bennett had been premier for 20 years and had kinda grown "long in the tooth". Any premier who remains after 10 years has passed his/her "best before due date". And ol' man Bennett was wayyyyy past his best before due date back then.

Since the BC NDP was the default alternative, they witnessed their popular vote share increase from between 27% - 33% in decades previous to 39%... with former BC Liberal voters moving over to the BC NDP in order to oust the Socreds.

The then BC Liberals were an urban based party and had always previously obtained ~20% popular vote share and seats and the then PCs also obtained seats. Of course, the BC NDP was just a one term wonder.

Popular vote share:

BC NDP - 39.6%
Socreds - 31.2%
BC Liberals - 16.4%
BC PCs - `12.7%

2. 1991 - The Socreds under VZ turned into a "social-conservative" party and also had other VZ scandals - think Fantasy Gardens. VZ's replacement was another so-con Zalmoid - Rita Johnston. Anathema to centrist BCers.

"Moderate" Mike Harcourt was the then BC NDP leader and was considered by all to take the 1991 election in a cakewalk. But... the 1991 leaders debate changed everything. Gordon Wilson and the then BC Liberals and his famous quote therein were a poli earthquake.

Obviously folk were not comfortable with the prospect of an BC NDP gov't back then and Wilson and the then centrist BC Liberals majorly captured their attention.

As an aside, the then BCTV NewsHour (now Global BC) ran a nightly tracking poll (CATI - akin to the 3-day Nanos federal poll during the last fed election). First and last time ever. After the leadership debate, the BC Liberals surged in support. And I mean SURGED! From previously basically nutthin'. BC Liberal lawn signs popped up like mushrooms everywhere. 'Twas kinda surreal.

The then BC Liberal surge was so great that the then BCTV NewsHour tracking poll had the BC Liberals over-taking the BC NDP. Was incredible coming from outta nowhere.

The BC NDP was so spooked that they had their then pit-bulls Glen Clark, Moe Sihota et al hold a press conference denigrating the BC Liberals as "inexperienced, unknowledgeable, etc." And it may have slowed the then BC Liberal momentum as the popular vote share was:

BC NDP - 41%
BC Lib - 33%
Socred - 24%

More importantly were internal BC NDP strategists confiding to Van Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer as he described several times over the years... "Had the election lasted one more week... the BC Liberals would have won in 1991 with their momentum". Blows me away.

3. 1996 - Within 1 1/2 years of election in 1991, the BC NDP had collapsed into 3rd place in Mustel's opinion polls - after the BC Liberals and BC Reform (CATI pollster and quite reliable albeit no longer in the field). By December, 1995 Harcourt had resigned due to the Nanaimo Commonwealth bingo scandal. Glen Clark became the new BC NDP leader and breathed some life into their sails. So much so that they won the election within weeks after becoming leader and calling same.

Caveat. Within a few months thereafter the BC NDP collapsed into 3rd place again and remained there.

Popular vote share in 1996:

BC Liberal - 42%
BC NDP - 39%
BC Reform - 9.3%
PDA: 6%

The BC NDP won with a 3 seat majority and even then BC NDP strategists later confided to Van Sun pol columnist Vaughn Palmer that they should not have won that election.

Funny thing. Based upon additional seats added since then to the Metro Van suburbs (strongly-Liberal leaning) and major changes in demographics to several other ridings tilting same strongly Liberal as well... the BC NDP would never have won that election either.

Thereafter the BC economy continued to tank as one of worst in Canada, BC had one of the highest taxation regimes in North America, had the lowest private sector investment in Canada, had the lowest consumer confidence level in Canada, had companies leaving to both Alberta and WA State, saw per capita after-tax incomes drop from 1991 to 2001 for the first time in history (since reversed), etc., etc. Not good times. At all.

As a matter of fact, an Ipsos Reid BC opinion poll had only a minimal 20% of BCers stating that "the BC economy was doing well" back in 2000 - the absolute lowest in their polling history. Ipsos noted same in a similar 2013 release.

BTW, back then, BC NDP cabinet minister Dave Zernhelt told the media... "We are gov't. We can do anything we want". And that they did with their social engineering program. Any wonder why the BC NDP had their arse kicked by the electorate with a 77 - 2 collapse during the 2001 BC election?

Still recall another Vaughn Palmer Van Sun column, prior to the 2001 BC election, whereby an unnamed BC NDP cabinet minister told V.P. that they "felt akin to those heading to the rooftop of the American embassy in Saigon back in 1975 awaiting heli-evac while the North Vietnamese Army (NVA) and the Viet Kong were seizing Saigon... during the Fall of Saigon". Will never forget that. Call it Karma.

Fast forward to 2013. Yep. The BC Libs screwed up big time. The HST debacle. Ethnogate. You name it. And the BC Cons received considerable media attention and had a populist leader in John Cummins that would/could split the centre-right/right-wing vote - the only time that the BC NDP has ever been able to win an election.

Even then - the BC NDP lost 3% popular vote share and seats v. the 2009 election. The political dynamic was the best that they have ever faced. Still a massive fail.

Today? The BC Cons had an unknown leader after 2013 - Dan Brooks who relatively recently stepped down - he couldn't afford to continue on without a pay-cheque from the party. And the BC Cons are embroiled with internal lawsuits and in-fighting with many members leaving in droves. In fact, recent filing with Elections BC confirm that they are facing major financial problems with an internal cash deficit - and little new fundraising.

Even Global News poli analyst Keith Baldrey recently tweeted that the BC Cons are now a "fringe party" and most likely won't be at the 2017 leadership debate (unlike the BC Libs, BC NDP, and BC Greens).

Bottom line? Tells me right there that the BC Libs have 2017 election in the bag (just based upon poli history) irrespective of the current BC NDP internal schisms and Horgan along with their major poli problems.

PS. When former BC NDP premier Mike Harcourt (whom I have always considered to be a "red" fed Liberal type) publicly quit the BC NDP back in April, 2014... he both insinuated and stated that "the current BC NDP caucus has neither the talent pool to form either cabinet or gov't". Brutal. Akin to giving additional ammunition to your political enemies.

[WarrenC12]

Maybe what is most funny to me is how BC is seen as the "loony left" by most of the rest of the country. We've probably had more right-leaning governments that most of the rest of the country.

I'd love to see a Conservative party with some support here again. That would hopefully force the liberals to be more traditional federal/central Liberal. I'd support that all day long.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Maybe what is most funny to me is how BC is seen as the "loony left" by most of the rest of the country. We've probably had more right-leaning governments that most of the rest of the country.

I'd love to see a Conservative party with some support here again. That would hopefully force the liberals to be more traditional federal/central Liberal. I'd support that all day long.

100% this. I don't feel comfortable voting NDP but I have no centrist option.

[Stingray2004]

Now to political safe seats... have been doing this analysis for a couple of decades - demographics, population growth, historical voting trends, etc. In that vein, the BC Boundaries Commission has completed another redistribution of seats... and the transposed results from 2013 don't change any outcomes thereto.

But the BCBC has added another 2 seats for the next election - one in Richmond and one in southern Surrey (basically my neck of the woods) due to population growth - both can be considered "safe" BC Liberal seats heading into 2017.

Now looking at "safe" seats heading into 2017 and having reviewed all (with transposed results) I confidently come to this conclusion:

1. BC Liberal - 42;
2. BC NDP - 20; (basically the West Kootenay, northern Surrey, New Westminster, southern Burnaby (Edmonds), East Van (and West End), as well as a chunk of Van Isle ridings)
3. BC Green - 1;
4. Ind. - 1;

And when I infer "safe" seats - I mean those with considerable winning margins in 2013 and historically prior as well as demographics. The rest of the 23 remaining ridings are either "leaning" or "swing".

Alright. The "red meat" detail in terms of "safe seats" that I described in my opening post:

Vancouver:

1. Vancouver-False Creek - Lib
2. Vancouver-Hastings - NDP
3. Vancouver-Kensington - NDP
4. Vancouver-Kingsway - NDP
5. Vancouver-Langara - Lib
6. Vancouver-Mount Pleasant - NDP
7. Vancouver-Quilchena - Lib
8. Vancouver-West End - NDP

Total safe seats:
NDP - 5
Lib - 3

Metro Vancouver/Fraser Valley:

9. West Vancouver-Capilano - Lib
10. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky - Lib
11. North Vancouver-Seymour - Lib
12. Richmond North Centre - Lib
13. Richmond-Queensborough - Lib
14. Richmond South Centre - Lib
15. Richmond-Steveston - Lib
16. Delta South - Ind. (Vicki Huntington)
17. Surrey-Cloverdale - Lib
18. Surrey-Green Timbers - NDP
19. Surrey-Guildford - Lib
20. Surrey-Newton - NDP
21. Surrey-Panorama - Lib
22. Surrey South - Lib
23. Surrey-Whalley - NDP
24. Surrey-White Rock - Lib
25. Coquitlam - Burke Mountain - Lib
26. Port Coquitlam - NDP
27. Port Moody-Coquitlam - Lib
28. Burnaby-Edmonds - NDP
29. New Westminster - NDP
30. Langley - Lib
31. Langley-East - Lib
32. Abbotsford-Mission - Lib
33. Abbotsford South - Lib
34. Abbotsford West - Lib
35. Chilliwack - Lib
36. Chilliwack-Kent - Lib

Total safe seats:
Lib - 21
NDP - 6
Ind. - 1

BC Interior:

37. Cariboo-Chilcotin - Lib
38. Cariboo North - Lib
39. Kamloops-South Thompson - Lib
40. Kamloops-Noprth Thompson - Lib
41. Kelowna-Lake Country - Lib
42. Kelowna-Mission - Lib
43. Kelowna West - Lib
44. Kootenay East - Lib
45. Kootenay West - NDP
46. Nechako Lakes - Lib
47. Nelson-Creston - NDP
48. North Coast - NDP
49. Peace River North - Lib
50. Peace River South - Lib
51. Penticton - Lib
52. Powell River-Sunshine Coast - NDP
53. Prince George-Mackenzie - Lib
54. Prince George-Valemount - Lib
55. Shuswap - Lib
56. Vernon-Monashee - Lib


Total safe seats:
Lib - 16
NDP - 4

Vancouver Island:

57. Courtenay-Comox - Lib
58. Esquimalt-Metchosin - NDP
59. Langford-Juan de Fuca - NDP
60. Mid Island-Pacific Rim - NDP
61. Nanaimo-North Cowichan - NDP
62. Oak Bay-Gordon Head - Green
63. Parksville-Qualicum - Lib
64, Victoria-Beacon Hill - NDP
65. Victoria-Swan Lake - NDP


Total safe seats:

NDP - 6
Lib - 2
Green - 1

BC Overall Safe Seats:

Lib - 42
NDP - 21
Green - 1
Ind. - 1

Right there... 42 safe Lib seats + 1 Ind. + 1 Green equates a majority in the new 87 seat legislature. Another 22 seats would be considered either "leaning" or "swing" and I already have a good sense where most of those will likely fall as well. Any dispute with any of the "safe" seats in the foregoing list... well... just have at 'er.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Alright. The "red meat" detail in terms of "safe seats" that I described in my opening post:

Vancouver:

1. Vancouver-False Creek - Lib
2. Vancouver-Hastings - NDP
3. Vancouver-Kensington - NDP
4. Vancouver-Kingsway - NDP
5. Vancouver-Langara - Lib
6. Vancouver-Mount Pleasant - NDP
7. Vancouver-Quilchena - Lib
8. Vancouver-West End - NDP

Total safe seats:
NDP - 5
Lib - 3

Metro Vancouver/Fraser Valley:

9. West Vancouver-Capilano - Lib
10. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky - Lib
11. North Vancouver-Seymour - Lib
12. Richmond North Centre - Lib
13. Richmond-Queensborough - Lib
14. Richmond South Centre - Lib
15. Richmond-Steveston - Lib
16. Delta South - Ind. (Vicki Huntington)
17. Surrey-Cloverdale - Lib
18. Surrey-Green Timbers - NDP
19. Surrey-Guildford - Lib
20. Surrey-Newton - NDP
21. Surrey-Panorama - Lib
22. Surrey South - Lib
23. Surrey-Whalley - NDP
24. Surrey-White Rock - Lib
25. Coquitlam - Burke Mountain - Lib
26. Port Coquitlam - NDP
27. Port Moody-Coquitlam - Lib
28. Burnaby-Edmonds - NDP
29. New Westminster - NDP
30. Langley - Lib
31. Langley-East - Lib
32. Abbotsford-Mission - Lib
33. Abbotsford South - Lib
34. Abbotsford West - Lib
35. Chilliwack - Lib
36. Chilliwack-Kent - Lib

Total safe seats:
Lib - 21
NDP - 6
Ind. - 1

BC Interior:

37. Cariboo-Chilcotin - Lib
38. Cariboo North - Lib
39. Kamloops-South Thompson - Lib
40. Kamloops-Noprth Thompson - Lib
41. Kelowna-Lake Country - Lib
42. Kelowna-Mission - Lib
43. Kelowna West - Lib
44. Kootenay East - Lib
45. Kootenay West - NDP
46. Nechako Lakes - Lib
47. Nelson-Creston - NDP
48. North Coast - NDP
49. Peace River North - Lib
50. Peace River South - Lib
51. Penticton - Lib
52. Powell River-Sunshine Coast - NDP
53. Prince George-Mackenzie - Lib
54. Prince George-Valemount - Lib
55. Shuswap - Lib
56. Vernon-Monashee - Lib


Total safe seats:
Lib - 16
NDP - 4

Vancouver Island:

57. Courtenay-Comox - Lib
58. Esquimalt-Metchosin - NDP
59. Langford-Juan de Fuca - NDP
60. Mid Island-Pacific Rim - NDP
61. Nanaimo-North Cowichan - NDP
62. Oak Bay-Gordon Head - Green
63. Parksville-Qualicum - Lib
64, Victoria-Beacon Hill - NDP
65. Victoria-Swan Lake - NDP


Total safe seats:

NDP - 6
Lib - 2
Green - 1

BC Overall Safe Seats:

Lib - 42
NDP - 21
Green - 1
Ind. - 1

Right there... 42 safe Lib seats + 1 Ind. + 1 Green equates a majority in the new 87 seat legislature. Another 22 seats would be considered either "leaning" or "swing" and I already have a good sense where most of those will likely fall as well. Any dispute with any of the "safe" seats in the foregoing list... well... just have at 'er.

BC appears to be a borderline 1 party state where only 1 party stands a fair chance at winning.

[Metro-One]

During the last election the NDP had a very real chance at coming back and winning the election.

They shat their bed at the last moment when it appeared that they were going to become anti-all resource development / industry to appease the fringe environmental left.

i wish the NDP were more centre left instead of extreme left when it comes to industry / resource development (even in a green world we still need mines and factories).

[Jebby]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

100% this. I don't feel comfortable voting NDP but I have no centrist option.

I wish a true conservative free-market party were in power.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

BC appears to be a borderline 1 party state where only 1 party stands a fair chance at winning.

Absolutely nuthin' to do with "fair". Just political reality. Frankly, the BC NDP is just not electable... unless a major split occurs on the centre-right vote as history has confirmed. Just ain't gonna happen in 2017. Not in the cards.

BC unfortunately has a very loud minority contingent against everything - the "BANANA" crowd... but also a "silent majority" exists. To wit, Dix back in 2013 thought that he was being clever by a half by changing his position on the TMP to against same. Unionized BC Building Trades offices were inundated with calls by members who were spooked about their future as a result. All corroborated by subsequent news stories after May, 2013.

As a result, the BC NDP lost popular vote share (as well as seats) throughout interior BC, the Fraser Valley, and the Metro Vancouver suburbs in 2013. As a matter of fact, they lost popular vote share right through and up to including the 4 Burnaby seats. Only in Van City proper and the North Shore did the BC NDP increase popular vote share in 2013 as a result of the "Kinder Morgan Surprise".

It gets much worse for the BC NDP heading into 2017... but I will leave that topic for a later date.

Again, the BC NDP is extremely divisive internally these days both in caucus as well as party ranks in terms of resource development, etc. Basically drifting and moribund.

BTW, too many folk in BC have a complete disdain for the BC NDP as a political brand. Memories from the 1990's. My better half - she graduated as an RN in 2000 and left for Miami to seek her first job. I know many building trades that left for California, Texas, Alberta, etc. in the 1990's to seek work and send pay-cheques back home to their wives and kids. They are all back in BC but despise the BC NDP as a result of their social engineering back then impacting the BC economy.

OTOH, just look at Manitoba... the MB NDP gov't lowered corporate tax rates to that of BC. Have embarked upon a ~$30 billion dam & transmission building exercise with Manitoba Hydro. Support all mining and other resource development. All anathema to the BC NDP.

A couple of MB elections back, I was astounded to see the MB home builders association (whatever they are called) spokesperson on MB CBC celebrating at the MB NDP re-election victory party. Would never, ever happen here in BC. Construction trades, miners, etc., etc. view the BC NDP as political poison, which is corroborated by reviewing polling station results in interior/Metro Van BC ridings in 2013.

The MB NDP is a centrist "orange" Liberal party... as well as the SK NDP. The BC NDP, OTOH, seems to be controlled by the fringe enviro movement and a good chunk of the BC NDP caucus are aligned with that "movement".

I still recall, after the 2009 BC election, some prominent BC NDPers (federal Liberal types|) looking to start a new centrist political vehicle... perhaps called "Liberal Democrats"?

Again, under current BC political dynamics, the BC NDP is highly likely to witness its worst popular vote share (and concurrent seat count) since 1969 - aside from the 2001 debacle.

I would prefer a 3-party system akin to what we have federally as well as what exists in Ontario. Perhaps a political thrashing for the BC NDP in 2017 will hasten that political transformation/realignment here in BC. 'Cause the BC NDP are long past their "best before due date" in terms of a political option for the centrist BC electorate.

PS. Has always been the case in BC that voters choose "the lesser of two evils at the ballot box". Expect the same in 2017. Hopefully not thereafter.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

The MB NDP is a centrist "orange" Liberal party... as well as the SK NDP. The BC NDP, OTOH, seems to be controlled by the fringe enviro movement and a good chunk of the BC NDP caucus are aligned with that "movement".

Why do you think the BC NDP is controlled by "the fringe enviro movement"? (whatever that is).

They opposed the carbon tax, and have clearly lost the environmental vote to the green party.

The NDP is still stuck in the union mentality. Those are their biggest donors. Again I think it's obvious that they should move towards the center to attract votes. It's not as if all of those union members, including teachers, would vote for anybody else.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Why do you think the BC NDP is controlled by "the fringe enviro movement"? (whatever that is).

They opposed the carbon tax, and have clearly lost the environmental vote to the green party.

The NDP is still stuck in the union mentality. Those are their biggest donors. Again I think it's obvious that they should move towards the center to attract votes. It's not as if all of those union members, including teachers, would vote for anybody else.

Easy answer. The major enviro vote is still stuck with the BC NDP. Look at the "granola" crowd vote on Denman Island, Hornby Island (off Eastern Van Isle), Nelson BC, etc., etc. Huge NDP vote majorities... election after election.

Look at the BC NDP caucus... many oppose natural gas fracking, mines in BC, etc. As a matter of fact, Saanich South BC NDP MLA Lana Popham relatively recently told caucus that she would quit if the BC NDP support/approve BC Hydro's Site C dam. It just goes on and on.

Just look at the 3 BC NDP MLAs in NW BC who recently signed on to the so-called "Flora Bank" Declaration in Prince Rupert, which would put the $36 billion Petronas LNG facility in jeopardy - aligning with fringe enviros and rogues within the FN community up there... when federal scientists at DFO et al... who went through ALL of the data with a "fine-tooth" comb logically concluded that the project will have "minimal" impact upon juvenile salmon/eelgrass beds on Flora Bank, which could all be mitigated in any event.

Even 5 local FN Tsimishian chiefs were abhored by the BC NDP position when their own internal enviro assessment corroborated the fed assessment. BTW, local Skeena BC NDP MLA Robin Austin (who won by a relative sliver in 2013) has all but thrown his own political future under the bus as a result in 2017.

I can go and and on. But will leave more for later.

As for union members... private sector union members obviously are voting in large numbers for the BC Libs as 2013 confirmed. Not the BC NDP. Private sector unions themselves have now decided to withhold poli funding to the BC NDP as a result of the so-called "Flora Bank Declaration". Keith Baldrey has reported upon same.

But yep. The BC NDP has a good chunk of the public sector unions as well as membership on side. Represented by those running for the NDP in BC these days - public sector union activists, enviro activists, and social activists. With the BC NDP and their new leader Horgan... it's all about moving away from the political centre these days.

I will re-iterate what I posted previously above:

PS. When former BC NDP premier Mike Harcourt (whom I have always considered to be a "red" fed Liberal type) publicly quit the BC NDP back in April, 2014... he both insinuated and stated that "the current BC NDP caucus has neither the talent pool to form either cabinet or gov't". Brutal. Akin to giving additional ammunition to your political enemies.

Speaks volumes.

PS. Have noticed many fed Liberal types move over to Andrew Weaver and the BC Greens over the past year. Something is happenin' there... and likely in campaign 2017 as well.

[WarrenC12]

Well, I just picked a riding at random - Nanaimo North Cowichan. Has been NDP for a while.

2009 Results:
NDP: 54%
Lib: 35%
Green: 9%

2013 Results:
NDP: 46%
Lib: 31%
Green: 13%

Not statistical by any stretch, but it shows to me that the Greens are bleeding off the NDP more than the Liberals.

[djmk]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

During the last election the NDP had a very real chance at coming back and winning the election.

They shat their bed at the last moment when it appeared that they were going to become anti-all resource development / industry to appease the fringe environmental left.

i wish the NDP were more centre left instead of extreme left when it comes to industry / resource development (even in a green world we still need mines and factories).

they shat the bed the moment they fired Carol James and Moe Sihota and Adrian Dix walked in. Everything about that was disgusting.