Canadian Foreign Policy & Affairs II

[Acajack]

Before Oct. 7 came around I thought I'd heard every single World War II analogy there was but this has proven to me that it is a bottomless source of analogies that will never run out. So here is another one... thinking about if we go back in time what the 2023 situation could do for Hitler in terms of an exit strategy to get out of that bunker in one piece.

So basically the Allies stop bombing Berlin, Allied soldiers go home, but Germany doesn't lose any land and he keeps the concentration camps open for the time being and we'll deal with that later.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Wigs

If Israel wants to quickly win this war they should be the ones showing Palestinians in Gaza they are better than Hamas.

The current IDF viewpoint of all Gazans are animals won't go over well after the relentless month long bombing campaign and taking out entire family lineages, including journalists, UN workers and other humanitarian staff including Red Crescent ambulance workers.

Americans learned in 2 Wars on Terror to get the local population on your side as much as possible.

A high percentage of Gazans have never previously seen an Israeli and vice versa... That's a problem.

If IDF doesn't try to work with non Hamas Palestinians in Gaza I fear that IDF/Israel under the Netanyahu administration, when all is said and done, seriously runs the risk of ending up creating more terrorists than they had on 10/7. All for naught scenario.

You may be right with your final point but Israel right now thinks that things can't possibly get worse (than Oct 7). I know that it could but they're still going to attempt to neutralize the threat in the way that's available to them. The previous approach didn't work.

And of course a ceasefire doesn't appeal to Israel's objective which is not to "make peace" with Hamas. Their objective is to destroy Hamas, not make peace with them. And it's a good idea to stay out of their way if you can.

[logan5]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Bernie Sanders has the exact same opinion as me on the ceasefire and he is a unanimously admired good guy on SSP so I must be a good guy too.

He seems to have a reasonable take. He better be careful though, some people will start calling him an anti-semite.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) suggested Sunday that Israel should change its strategy if it wanted more aid from the United States, pointing to the thousands of reported civilian deaths in Gaza.

“So once again, the immediate concern is you gotta have a pause in the bombing,” Sanders said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “You got to take care of immediate disaster. Israel’s got to change their strategy. Let me just say this, the United States of America provides $3.8 billion every year to Israel.”

“But we have a right to say ‘Sorry, you need a new military strategy. Go after Hamas, but that means — but do not kill innocent men, women and children,” he added.

When pressed further on whether he would support sending additional aid to Israel, he said he would have to look at what the bill proposes. He reiterated the need for Israel to cease its bombing of Gaza and find a different way to eliminate Hamas.

https://thehill.com/homenews/4294200...-more-funding/

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by someone123

I appreciate that people would like there to be peace but I think that for military or political discussion to be meaningful it has to connect to the real state of the world and actions that people or groups can or will take. I don't think calls for a cease-fire (implied that it involves the 2 parties in the conflict) that have no connection to Hamas' stated goals or actions qualify.

There's another layer sometimes like anti-Westernism or anti-Semitism. You see this with people who say the USA should stop making Ukraine and Russia fight while Ukraine and Russia are fighting, aren't negotiating a cease-fire, and no clear path to one is identified. I wonder how much of this is propaganda aimed at low information observers. Often the target of Russian propaganda is the Global South, and they can get traction with arguments that seem strange or false on their face to Westerners.

These groups you're talking about are now larger than ever and also larger than I ever imagined they could be.

[savevp]

Originally Posted by Wigs

If Israel wants to quickly win this war they should be the ones showing Palestinians in Gaza they are better than Hamas.

But how? As was discussed earlier today, no one can devise any way for Israel to eliminate Hamas (which everyone agrees is a must) without bombing Gaza to smithereens, because of where Hamas operate from (civilian areas).

Either Israel stops attacking Gaza, giving Hamas the quasi-victory, or they keep going until Hamas are gone. The Palestinians may hate Israel for it, but at least their ability to launch attacks on Israel will be severely impaired.

And the Palestinians will probably always hate Israel anyway, and there will probably always be an embrace of Jihad within a segment of that population, as they've shown in Palestine and numerous times elsewhere in the Arab world.

[Architype]

Originally Posted by logan5

He seems to have a reasonable take. He better be careful though, some people will start calling him an anti-semite.



https://thehill.com/homenews/4294200...-more-funding/

This might line up well with the current victim-oppressor narrative, even Jews can now be perceived as anti-Semitic, and Canadians can be anti-Canadian, etc. I've pointed out to my far leftist friends, that they will always support those who are perceived as victims, regardless of any ideological conflict. if Israel was perceived as under threat from some more powerful enemy, they would be getting the support from the left.

[casper]

Originally Posted by savevp

But how? As was discussed earlier today, no one can devise any way for Israel to eliminate Hamas (which everyone agrees is a must) without bombing Gaza to smithereens, because of where Hamas operate from (civilian areas).

Either Israel stops attacking Gaza, giving Hamas the quasi-victory, or they keep going until Hamas are gone. The Palestinians may hate Israel for it, but at least their ability to launch attacks on Israel will be severely impaired.

And the Palestinians will probably always hate Israel anyway, and there will probably always be an embrace of Jihad within a segment of that population, as they've shown in Palestine and numerous times elsewhere in the Arab world.

I think the point several of us are making is bombing Gaza is not a path to eliminating Hamas. It is a path to making Palestinians more desperate than they were before all of this start and more likely to join and support Hamas.

I think you need to step back and look at history. Germany overtime learned to work with and becomes friends with French and British. Japan learned to do the same with the US.

There will be a point in time were Israel stops hating the Palestinians and the Palestinians stop hating Israel. Exactly when and how the world gets there is still a bit of a unknown.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by casper

I think the point several of us are making is bombing Gaza is not a path to eliminating Hamas.

Agreed. Bombing isn't. That's why you're seeing a ground invasion that is focused on encirclement and urban warfare. Those bombs were the first phase and really a delay tactic while they decide whether this was worthwhile. A months long invasion and years long occupation could see casualties on both sides that are a magnitude higher than today. But once their bomb making facilities are found and their tunnels are destroyed and substantial amount of their membership arrested or killed, Hamas will be far less potent.

If the argument is that Hamas should be destroyed, than short of a Palestinian revolt against Hamas, this is what it is going to take. So really, the question is whether one really believes the cost is worth destroying Hamas.

I know there will be comparisons to Iraq and Afghanistan. These are ignorant. We never had the ability to attack Taliban safehavens in Pakistan and Iran. On the other hand, the US essentially did what the IDF is doing now, to insurgents in Fallujah and Mosul and had substantial success. It's why Iraq is somewhat stable today.

Originally Posted by casper

I think you need to step back and look at history. Germany overtime learned to work with and becomes friends with French and British. Japan learned to do the same with the US.

Germany came around after their country was substantially destroyed, dismembered and occupied. Japan came around after two nukes were dropped on them and they faced several invasions (Soviets and Americans). They also had to accept occupation and full restructuring of their society. People really forget what we did to neuter and remake the aggressors of WWII.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Germany came around after their country was substantially destroyed, dismembered and occupied. Japan came around after two nukes were dropped on them and they faced several invasions (Soviets and Americans). They also had to accept occupation and full restructuring of their society. People really forget what we did to neuter and remake the aggressors of WWII.

Absolutely the only way for a imperialist power to reform itself is defeat. Doesn't have to be total defeat but that is ideal. I'm not saying Israel is a imperial or colonialist power but if one has the view it is, it will probably take defeat to reform.

[urbandreamer]

People forget that someone will replace Hamas, likely far worse. Why can't the Palestinians have their own professional army?

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Absolutely the only way for a imperialist power to reform itself is defeat. Doesn't have to be total defeat but that is ideal. I'm not saying Israel is a imperial or colonialist power but if one has the view it is, it will probably take defeat to reform.

Israel more than most is a country that probably couldn't survive the scale of defeat that would provoke a "national reset".

(I'm not saying this to justify every action taken by Israel, but it does go a long way in explaining their mindset.)

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Japan came around after two nukes were dropped on them

Originally Posted by Architype

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Israel more than most is a country that probably couldn't survive the scale of defeat that would provoke a "national reset".

(I'm not saying this to justify every action taken by Israel, but it does go a long way in explaining their mindset.)

For sure and I wasn't saying they should be defeated. Doesn't have to be a domestic defeat. France was defeated overseas and gave up imperialism. Though their national story claims a different narrative.

In this case, and counter to my previous point, a decisive Israeli victory could be the best hope for peace. The near complete destruction of Hamas in Gaza at the likely cost of thousands of soldiers lives could bring Israel to make a best every peace offer to Fattah. Sure it probably wouldn't work but it's maybe better than where we were before Oct. 7.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

People forget that someone will replace Hamas, likely far worse. Why can't the Palestinians have their own professional army?

They do, sort of.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pale...ecurity_Forces

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Absolutely the only way for a imperialist power to reform itself is defeat. Doesn't have to be total defeat but that is ideal. I'm not saying Israel is a imperial or colonialist power but if one has the view it is, it will probably take defeat to reform.

The Arab states have tried this approach (full scale invasion to destroy the Israeli state) several times. It's how Israel ended up stuck with Gaza and the West Bank. So Israel isn't going anywhere. The Arabs are slowly coming to terms with that. See recent Abraham Accords.

The Israelis can be convinced to withdraw, with sufficient Western pressure. Especially from the US. But not too many Western countries will sign on to that campaign as long as the Palestinians refuse to eschew terrorism against Israeli civilians as a legitimate tactic. Post 9/11 and all the terror attacks in Europe, there really isn't much sympathy for that viewpoint.

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

People forget that someone will replace Hamas, likely far worse. Why can't the Palestinians have their own professional army?

Hamas is already ideologically committed to total genocide of Israel's Jews and the establishment of an Islamic state on the lands they claim. What do you imagine is going to be worse?

I can see a group that might be slightly more competent at their aims. But I can't imagine a group that is ideologically worse.

Also, as acottawa pointed out, the Palestinians do have their own security forces. They fought a mini civil war against Hamas and lost. So now their remit is largely the West Bank and Hamas is the de facto government of Gaza. Think of it like the cartels having more authority than the government in certain parts of Mexico.

[Hecate]

Originally Posted by Wigs

A high percentage of Gazans have never previously seen an Israeli and vice versa... That's a problem.

If IDF doesn't try to work with non Hamas Palestinians in Gaza I fear that IDF/Israel under the Netanyahu administration, when all is said and done, seriously runs the risk of ending up creating more terrorists than they had on 10/7. All for naught scenario.

What does having seen an Israeli before have to do with anything? Maybe if they didn’t kill them all when they entered gaza they might get to know some.

Over half the Palestinians support terrorism… I don’t know why you seem to continuously over look this. they might not support Hamas, but they full out support what Hamas does.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Before Oct. 7 came around I thought I'd heard every single World War II analogy there was but this has proven to me that it is a bottomless source of analogies that will never run out. So here is another one... thinking about if we go back in time what the 2023 situation could do for Hitler in terms of an exit strategy to get out of that bunker in one piece.

So basically the Allies stop bombing Berlin, Allied soldiers go home, but Germany doesn't lose any land and he keeps the concentration camps open for the time being and we'll deal with that later.

Indeed, people have forgotten what a war is like surprising as Russia-Ukraine was going on at the same time. What would the Allies have done if their publci reacted similarly to footage like this? It makes you wonder of bad actors (cough, China, cough Russia) are fueling pro-Palestinian groups.

• Video Link

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Hecate

What does having seen an Israeli before have to do with anything? Maybe if they didn’t kill them all when they entered gaza they might get to know some.

Over half the Palestinians support terrorism… I don’t know why you seem to continuously over look this. they might not support Hamas, but they full out support what Hamas does.

Yes and we can pretend otherwise but the only way for Palestinians to change the paradigm is with asymmetric attacks. Unless we want to give them a near peer army and they can fight on the battlefield. Terrorism rarely (many say never) works so maybe they should accept their fate but insurgencies almost always works so the definition matters a lot for the end result.

If they give up they could certainly have a healthy happy population on territory the size of pre 67 borders but as I said before they are just as likely to end up in civil war and we can all say I told you so even though they are taking our advice.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Hecate

What does having seen an Israeli before have to do with anything? Maybe if they didn’t kill them all when they entered gaza they might get to know some.

Over half the Palestinians support terrorism… I don’t know why you seem to continuously over look this. they might not support Hamas, but they full out support what Hamas does.

Palestinians on the West Bank have way more regular contact with Israelis than Gazawis do. Not sure that this makes them any more fond of them.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by whatnext

It makes you wonder of bad actors (cough, China, cough Russia) are fueling pro-Palestinian groups.

It would be really interesting to see the impact they have had. I doubt we will ever know. There are a lot of public connections between actors like Russia or Iran or North Korea giving out military aid. I doubt the Houthi rebels in Yemen manufacture their own long-distance ballistic missiles (and what day-to-day effect does Israel really have on them?).

You would have to disentangle the foreign interference with domestic actors and it's hard to know how to divide the blame when you have a lot of polarization and weird politics. It is strange that a kind of pro-Islam, anti-Israel stance got embedded in left-wing politics. There are a lot of younger progressives who are strongly pro-Palestine veering toward pro-Hamas despite not really having anything to do with the region.

One thing that has happened is an escalation of bad behaviour in domains that have very little political diversity, and in politics. Academia has been losing touch more and more over the years and it's culminating in some bizarre stuff. There seems to be a norm of being an "activist" on assorted online issues without caring at all about engaging with other political groups (deplorables) in your own country.