City Murder Rates

[ChiMIchael]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

I don't think anybody is claiming that the number of guns are the only predictor of murder rate. Anyway, the number of guns is not the right number to use. A better number is the fraction of the population that owns at least one gun (since number of guns per person is probably not a huge factor in murder rate). I haven't seen solid statistics for this. Do you have evidence that the fraction of gun-owning people has increased?

Unfortunately, inability for federally funded research in this area doesn't help.

Honestly, I don't think I've ever seen a study of the correlation among between gun laws/ownership and crime rates (specifically gun murders). I just hear people repeating selective talking points that goes along with one's narrative.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

I don't think anybody is claiming that the number of guns are the only predictor of murder rate. Anyway, the number of guns is not the right number to use. A better number is the fraction of the population that owns at least one gun (since number of guns per person is probably not a huge factor in murder rate). I haven't seen solid statistics for this. Do you have evidence that the fraction of gun-owning people has increased?

Unfortunately, inability for federally funded research in this area doesn't help.

Absolutely. Some people I know own tons of guns. I don't have the data on how many people own guns, just raw numbers(which are a lot easier to get ahold of). However, on its face, it seems rational to think that if there are more guns, there are more people with guns. Maybe it isn't equal, such as 100% increase in guns=100% increase in gun owners, but I am certain without seeing the data more people own guns.

Yes, we need as much research as possible. Any reasonable gun owner should WANT this. I hate politics.

[KevinFromTexas]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

It’s sad that people(me) are making sure people have correct information?

We have massively more guns in the last 30 years.
Our murder rate(the topic of this thread) has gone down about 50%.

Where is the NRA false information at?

Could you people stop making everything an emotional issue and stick to the facts?

The NRA was and still is actively lobbying for gun violence stats to not be recorded. They are a gun lobbying group, and murder and mass shootings is bad publicity. So it makes sense that they would endeavor to hush the findings.

By the way, I'm not automatically anti-gun. I grew up with them. By the time I was 10 I had already shot .22s, 410s, and 12 gauges.

I just cringe and think that the NRA is making the situation worse.

Anyway, yes, this thread is for facts. Tallying the dead. 71% of the murders in my city are committed with a gun. That's a fact.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas

The NRA was and still is actively lobbying for gun violence stats to not be recorded. They are a gun lobbying group, and murder and mass shootings is bad publicity. So it makes sense that they would endeavor to hush the findings.

By the way, I'm not automatically anti-gun. I grew up with them. By the time I was 10 I had already shot .22s, 410s, and 12 gauges.

I just cringe and think that the NRA is making the situation worse.

Anyway, yes, this thread is for facts. Tallying the dead. 71% of the murders in my city are committed with a gun. That's a fact.

Your comment was direct towards me, not the NRA. I stated two facts, you ignored them.

Originally Posted by ChiMIchael

Honestly, I don't think I've ever seen a study of the correlation among between gun laws/ownership and crime rates (specifically gun murders). I just hear people repeating selective talking points that goes along with one's narrative.

Effects of the repeal of Missouri's handgun purchaser licensing law on homicides.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3978146/

In the USA, homicide is a leading cause of death for young males and a major cause of racial disparities in life expectancy for men. There are intense debate and little rigorous research on the effects of firearm sales regulation on homicides. This study estimates the impact of Missouri’s 2007 repeal of its permit-to-purchase (PTP) handgun law on states’ homicide rates and controls for changes in poverty, unemployment, crime, incarceration, policing levels, and other policies that could potentially affect homicides. Using death certificate data available through 2010, the repeal of Missouri’s PTP law was associated with an increase in annual firearm homicides rates of 1.09 per 100,000 (+23 %) but was unrelated to changes in non-firearm homicide rates. Using Uniform Crime Reporting data from police through 2012, the law’s repeal was associated with increased annual murders rates of 0.93 per 100,000 (+16 %). These estimated effects translate to increases of between 55 and 63 homicides per year in Missouri.

[KevinFromTexas]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

Your comment was direct towards me, not the NRA. I stated two facts, you ignored them.

Understood, but as a lobbying group, the NRA is very influential because of the pro-gun language they use and it no doubt gets reused in arguments about guns. They call it supporting the 2nd amendment, but they're a group that profits off of the situation no matter how good or bad, and attempts to squash a dissenting view of it.

Anyway, I've been keeping track of the murders in my city for almost 20 years now, and during the last few, at least, we've been seeing a considerable uptick in the number of murders, particularly from gun violence, and that is without Austin being a hotspot for gang crime. Our murder rate is still many times lower than that of other Texas cities, but the rise is noticeable, and it may soon rival the high numbers we saw in the early 90s.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas

Understood, but as a lobbying group, the NRA is very influential because of the pro-gun language they use and it no doubt gets reused in arguments about guns. They call it supporting the 2nd amendment, but they're a group that profits off of the situation no matter how good or bad, and attempts to squash a dissenting view of it.

Anyway, I've been keeping track of the murders in my city for almost 20 years now, and during the last few, at least, we've been seeing a considerable uptick in the number of murders, particularly from gun violence, and that is without Austin being a hotspot for gang crime. Our murder rate is still many times lower than that of other Texas cities, but the rise is noticeable, and it may soon rival the high numbers we saw in the early 90s.

Yeah, and it's one reason why I am not a member. Lobbying groups stop being rational as soon as they are started, in my opinion.

I appreciate your information keeping, really(I used to live in Austin), but couldn't the rise in crime be linked to the growing population? Or are you talking about per 100k?

[KevinFromTexas]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

Yeah, and it's one reason why I am not a member. Lobbying groups stop being rational as soon as they are started, in my opinion.

I appreciate your information keeping, really(I used to live in Austin), but couldn't the rise in crime be linked to the growing population? Or are you talking about per 100k?

Yes, and no. In the 90s, we were consistently having murder numbers that were higher than now in some cases, even twice the total. In 1991 there were 47 murders in Austin. The closest it's been to that number since 2005 was 39 in 2016. It's been as low as 19 in 2015. The last 4 years have seen an uptick in numbers, and this year could rival or even eclipse the worst years in the early 90s. At the moment, 15 murders already, we're on pace to have 60 this year, which I think would be the highest total ever for Austin. One year, I guess, it was probably in 2015, I remember we had 4 months that year without a single murder. I had thought the virus going around would have lowered the numbers. So far I was wrong.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas

Yes, and no. In the 90s, we were consistently having murder numbers that were higher than now in some cases, even twice the total. In 1991 there were 47 murders in Austin. The closest it's been to that number since 2005 was 39 in 2016. It's been as low as 19 in 2015. The last 4 years have seen an uptick in numbers, and this year could rival or even eclipse the worst years in the early 90s. At the moment, 15 murders already, we're on pace to have 60 this year, which I think would be the highest total ever for Austin. One year, I guess, it was probably in 2015, I remember we had 4 months that year without a single murder. I had thought the virus going around would have lowered the numbers. So far I was wrong.

Interesting. I hope Austin keeps their crime down. It was one of those factors I loved about the place. Yet, it's weird, an absence of something that usually doesn't impact you keeps it out of your mind, so I never really thought about the lack of crime while I lived there, but it was a pull factor moving there certainly.

[ilcapo]

Sweden is at 34 clear/confirmed cases of deadly violence as of april 10th 2020.

Murder with firearm so far: 14

Greater Stockholm: 10 (+4 unclear) (6 with firearm)
Stockholm City: 5
Gothenburg: 3
Malmö: 2 (or 3)

Deadly shootings since 2006:

2006: 8
2007: 13
2008: 10
2009: 10
2010: 9
2011: 13
2012: 12
2013: 18
2014: 19
2015: 28
2016: 28
2017: 43
2018: 45
2019: 42

In other words: shootings are up the past 3 or 4 years,but other murders such as knife, domestic or drunken murders are down.

[ilcapo]

I bet several cities are seeing lower numbers because of Covid 19.

The last numbers ive seen from New York was end of march.
The yearly number so far was 69, down from 78 last year.
April will most likely decrease more due to the lockdown.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by ilcapo

Sweden is at 34 clear/confirmed cases of deadly violence as of april 10th 2020.

Murder with firearm so far: 14

Greater Stockholm: 10 (+4 unclear) (6 with firearm)
Stockholm City: 5
Gothenburg: 3
Malmö: 2 (or 3)

Deadly shootings since 2006:

2006: 8
2007: 13
2008: 10
2009: 10
2010: 9
2011: 13
2012: 12
2013: 18
2014: 19
2015: 28
2016: 28
2017: 43
2018: 45
2019: 42

In other words: shootings are up the past 3 or 4 years,but other murders such as knife, domestic or drunken murders are down.

What is going on there??

[ilcapo]

Originally Posted by ilcapo

I bet several cities are seeing lower numbers because of Covid 19.

The last numbers ive seen from New York was end of march.
The yearly number so far was 69, down from 78 last year.
April will most likely decrease more due to the lockdown.

Or up.....

Latest from NYPD is that the murders are up to 92 compared to 87 last year.

[SlidellWx]

Worst month for murder so far in New Orleans since February 2018. 19 people have been killed this month. Mostly drug turf related as gangs fight over the few remaining scraps of the drug trade left after tourists stopped coming. Things had been very calm for the last two years compared to past historical averages prior to this month.

[softee]

Homicides are also up in Toronto this year when compared to last, the city is at 24 so far vs. 20 at this time last year.

[dc_denizen]

Sweden must have loosened it’s gun laws

[Investing In Chicago]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

What is going on there??

My wife is from Sweden (though mainly grew up in Minnesota) - we were just in Sweden in December, and we talked about the violence there....The answer is way too sensitive for this forum.

[KevinFromTexas]

2020 Austin Metro Murders

| Austin 17 | Travis Co. 20 | Bastrop Co. 0 | Caldwell Co. 0 | Hays Co. 1 | Williamson Co. 4 | Metro 25 |

Causes metrowide
Shooting - 17
Stabbing - 4
Strangled - 0
Suffocation - 0
Throwing (of child) - 0
Beating - 1
Vehicular homicide - 0
Blunt force trauma - 1
Sharp force trauma - 0
Unlisted cause - 2
Domestic terrorism - 0

Austin totals
Downtown - 1
Central Austin - 1
East Austin - 3
North Austin - 2
Northeast Austin - 4
Northwest Austin - 0
South Austin - 4
Southeast Austin - 1
Southwest Austin - 0
West Austin - 1

Victims
Male - 16
Female - 8
Unlisted - 1

| Jan 6 | Feb 6 | Mar 9 | Apr 4 | May 0 | Jun 0 | Jul 0 | Aug 0 | Sep 0 | Oct 0 | Nov 0 | Dec 0 |

-

| Mon 3 | Tue 5 | Wed 1 | Thur 4 | Fri 3 | Sat 6 | Sun 3 |

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Murder cases

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/crime/4-people-stabbed-in-attack-on-south-congress/?fbclid=IwAR30os7QA-0IUpsC8RxheTAXJFZLOl-57LO51A44-3OB4uD2-0v2DnSCON0 - 1/3 - Austin stabbing

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/one-injured-in-east-austin-shooting/ - 1/11 - Austin shooting

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/police-looking-for-suspect-in-east-austin-stabbing/?fbclid=IwAR2f4m_Is2jKFsQRwsEiJwMUyAlxUREKRTiWk0utxcyHTrQzeQjJcfVg0f8 - 1/17 - Austin stabbing

1 dead - http://www.austintexas.gov/news/homicide-5-0 - 1/19 - Austin blunt force trauma

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/local-news/atcems-reporting-to-possible-east-austin-shooting-someone-possibly-dead/ - 1/20 - Austin shooting

1 dead - http://www.austintexas.gov/news/homicide-4-0 - 1/23 - Austin shooting

1 dead - https://www.statesman.com/news/20200202/2-dead-after-pflugerville-shooting-saturday-night-police-say?template=ampart - 2/1 - Pflugerville shooting

1 dead - http://www.austintexas.gov/news/homicide-6-0 - 2/17 - Austin shooting

1 dead - http://www.austintexas.gov/news/homicide-9-0 - 2/21 - Austin shooting

2 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/crime/police-identify-third-suspect-in-northeast-austin-apartment-shooting/ - 2/25 - Austin shooting

1 dead - https://www.statesman.com/news/20200305/police-arrest-made-in-georgetown-missing-man-case?template=ampart - 2/25 - Georgetown unlisted cause

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/local/williamson-county/round-rock-teen-arrested-in-connection-with-fatal-shooting-of-17-year-old/ - 3/3 - Round Rock shooting

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/crime/homicide-investigation-opened-after-male-victim-shot-dead-in-south-austin/ - 3/13 - Austin shooting

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/crime/teen-shot-and-dropped-off-at-taylor-hospital-declared-dead-on-arrival-suspect-in-custody/ - 3/21 - Taylor shooting

1 dead - http://www.austintexas.gov/news/homicide-11-0 - 3/22 - Austin shooting

1 dead - https://www.statesman.com/news/20200325/man-dies-from-wounds-after-cedar-park-shooting-sunday?template=ampart - 3/25 - Cedar Park shooting

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/apd-investigating-homicide-in-north-austin/ - 3/26 - Austin stabbing

1 dead - http://www.austintexas.gov/news/homicide-13-0 - 3/27 - Austin body found with trauma

1 dead - https://www.statesman.com/news/20200329/overnight-man-killed-woman-injured-in-north-austin-shooting - 3/29 - Austin shooting

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/local/travis-county/authorities-investigating-report-of-shots-fired-in-pflugerville/ - 3/31 - Pflugerville shooting

1 dead - http://www.austintexas.gov/news/homicide-15-0 - 4/13 - Austin stabbing

1 dead - https://www.statesman.com/news/20200427/suspect-in-manchaca-womans-death-also-found-dead-authorities-say?template=ampart - 4/16 - Manchaca shooting

1 - dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/local/hays/san-marcos-police-urge-shelter-in-place-as-they-respond-to-incident/ - 4/18 - San Marcos shooting

1 dead - https://www.kvue.com/article/news/crime/downtown-austin-street-fight-turns-fatal/269-02712655-7a03-46a8-8a3f-2320a0966765 - 4/18 - Austin beating

-

Pending cases

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/police-investigating-body-found-near-taco-shack-in-northwest-austin/ - 2/29 - body found - Austin

1 dead - https://www.statesman.com/news/20200311/manrsquos-body-found-on-conveyor-belt-at-recycling-plant-in-travis-county?template=ampart - 3/11 - body found - Austin

1 dead - https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/body-found-outside-texas-workforce-commission/ - 4/6 - Austin body found

1 dead - https://www.statesman.com/news/20200418/body-found-behind-h-e-b-store-in-round-rock-police-say?template=ampart - 4/18 - Round Rock - body found

1 dead - https://www.kvue.com/article/news/local/manchaca-body-found-homicide-investigation-janice-hughes/269-c1872dc9-e085-4752-a759-473ebc9ad239?fbclid=IwAR2Bs8NV2YaYn9T0LgjH5JoS2-g1_l7KB4e935ziMKvSTUOnI80oMgHh1Xs - 4/16 - Manchaca - body found

Austin area population

City: 964,254 (July 1, 2018 estimate) - source: US Census Bureau
Travis County: 1,273,954 (July 1, 2019 estimate) - source: US Census Bureau
Metro: 2,227,083 (July 1, 2019 estimate) - source: US Census Bureau

Area - City: 297 square miles (2010) - US Census Bureau
Area - Metro: 4,285 square miles - Wikipedia
Area - Travis County: 1,023 square miles - Wikipedia

-

Previous years

2019 - 35
2018 - 35
2017 - 23
2016 - 39
2015 - 19
2014 - 31
2013 - 25
2012 - 32
2011 - 28
2010 - 31
2009 - 23
2008 - 24
2007 - 30
2006 - 20
2005 - 26

[KevinFromTexas]

Austin's having a bad year. Whereas we typically see 25 to 35 murders for the metro in a year, we've already seen 25 this year, and we're just 4 months into the year. I would have thought that with Covid-19 that we'd see a sharp decline in murders, but that's just not been true so far. And few to none of these cases appeared to be domestic murders. And most of the murders, as with any year here, are being committed with a gun. Typically, around 70% of the murders in Austin's metro every year are with a gun. At the moment it's at 68%, but I've seen it as high as 74%. Of the 25 murders in the metro, 17 have been with a gun. The next largest cause is stabbing with 4. And these are happening all over. Austin doesn't really have a "bad area" of town. I mean, there are some places that are a little sketchier than others, but none as bad as in other cities. Gang violence isn't a thing here, and all of the murders are isolated incidences in almost every area of Austin and its metro.

[bossabreezes]

Originally Posted by Investing In Chicago

My wife is from Sweden (though mainly grew up in Minnesota) - we were just in Sweden in December, and we talked about the violence there....The answer is way too sensitive for this forum.

Thanks for that cliffhanger!

Surely it can be discussed...