US Postal Service: Only 3.7% of Bay Area Address Changes are Out-of-State

[dimondpark]

I thought it would be much higher given all the media hysteria.

Only 4,000 out of 115,000 household and business address changes during the pandemic are out-of-state, that's 3.7%----1.0% moved to Washington State, and 0.6% moved to Texas.

Only 3.7% of the households and businesses that filed address changes in five Bay Area counties from March to November 2020 left California, a total of 4,264 move outs, according to the data.

% of movers who relocated out-of-state
6% San Francisco
5% Santa Clara
2% Alameda
2% Contra Costa
1% Marin
1% San Mateo

% of movers who relocated elsewhere in CA
37% Santa Clara
24% Alameda
19% Contra Costa
13% San Francisco
7% Marin
7% San Mateo

% of movers who relocate within the 9-county Bay Area
92% San Mateo
91% Marin
81% San Francisco
79% Contra Costa
74% Alameda
58% Santa Clara

The biggest county-to-county shift during this pandemic has not been from San Francisco to some out-of-state location but from Santa Clara to Sacramento and the Central Valley. That far outstrips any migration to Seattle or Austin or anywhere else, and that further perpetuates the connection between the Bay Area and it's outlying areas, which means the CSA is going to get bigger.

[sopas ej]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

I thought it would be much higher given all the media hysteria.

For reals. I posted an article along this similar vein some days ago.

The US media and conservatives LOVE to say that people are leaving California in droves. They've been saying this since at least the recession of the early 1990s.

Hehe it's funny because when I was at a restaurant on Sunday in LA, I overheard someone at another table saying something like "So supposedly there's this mass exodus out of California?" This was at the Farmers Market on Fairfax, which was fairly crowded. Haha!

[Pedestrian]

My address change is out of state and it's only my annual trek to the sun in winter. I remain a CA/SF permanent resident (but the Post Office wouldn't know that). Even some of the out of state changes may actually be only temporary like mine but for convenience, because I wasn't sure exactly when I was coming back, I told the P.O. it was permanent.

I actually think when the city opens back up--dining, entertainment, night life, high and low culture--a lot of people will be coming back.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by sopas ej

For reals. I posted an article along this similar vein some days ago.

The US media and conservatives LOVE to say that people are leaving California in droves. They've been saying this since at least the recession of the early 1990s.

Hehe it's funny because when I was at a restaurant on Sunday in LA, I overheard someone at another table saying something like "So supposedly there's this mass exodus out of California?" This was at the Farmers Market on Fairfax, which was fairly crowded. Haha!

Don't California my Texas lmao
It's always been over blown.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by sopas ej

For reals. I posted an article along this similar vein some days ago.

The US media and conservatives LOVE to say that people are leaving California in droves. They've been saying this since at least the recession of the early 1990s.

Hehe it's funny because when I was at a restaurant on Sunday in LA, I overheard someone at another table saying something like "So supposedly there's this mass exodus out of California?" This was at the Farmers Market on Fairfax, which was fairly crowded. Haha!

On the flip side, there seems to be this idea among liberals that everyone on Earth wants to live there. This girl in one of my classes said "you'll have an impossible task getting people to leave California"...my response..." Ummmm, ask Texans about that."

Californians are leaving the state in high numbers, but they have international growth and natural growth to make up the difference. This isn't some conspiracy theory.

[kurt angle]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

On the flip side, there seems to be this idea among liberals that everyone on Earth wants to live there. This girl in one of my classes said "you'll have an impossible task getting people to leave California"...my response..." Ummmm, ask Texans about that."

Californians are leaving the state in high numbers, but they have international growth and natural growth to make up the difference. This isn't some conspiracy theory.

But Coastal California rent is absolutely an impossible task for many. She's 100% right.

People aren't leaving because they feel like it. They're leaving because the cost of living has gotten insane.

Make the average rent in Texas $2600 for 1BD and see how fast the state empties out. It'll make the California exodus look like nothing.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by kurt angle

But Coastal California rent is absolutely an impossible task for many. She's 100% right.

People aren't leaving because they feel like it. They're leaving because the cost of living has gotten insane.

Make the average rent in Texas $2600 for 1BD and see how fast the state empties out. It'll make the California exodus look like nothing.

And opportunity. Texas probably disproportionately attracts working class Californians. For all the talk about rich people fleeing, I doubt many actually are.

But Texas is pretty ugly compared to California, so I doubt anyone of any economic status is moving for the scenery.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by kurt angle

But Coastal California rent is absolutely an impossible task for many. She's 100% right.

People aren't leaving because they feel like it. They're leaving because the cost of living has gotten insane.

Make the average rent in Texas $2600 for 1BD and see how fast the state empties out. It'll make the California exodus look like nothing.

What is your point?

Cost of living is a HUGE part of life, like besides loved ones, the most important part of life. Sure, it's great you live in beautiful California, but when you are living in a box it sure doesn't seem so great.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

What is your point?

Cost of living is a HUGE part of life, like besides loved ones, the most important part of life. Sure, it's great you live in beautiful California, but when you are living in a box it sure doesn't seem so great.

People in NYC don't care about living in a box.

[TWAK]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

What is your point?

People move because of the high rent...like myself, and from the article that this thread is about, it clearly shows that more people are moving to Washington than Texas. It's not even that much leaving, and why is it a huge deal if people do leave CA?

Cost of living is a HUGE part of life, like besides loved ones, the most important part of life. Sure, it's great you live in beautiful California, but when you are living in a box it sure doesn't seem so great.

Ok so...people in CA go outside in the winter and the summer to do stuff, even with COVID. "A box" in LA or SF maybe, but that's expected. New housing, even in the suburbs, is pretty packed in tight.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

What is your point?

Cost of living is a HUGE part of life, like besides loved ones, the most important part of life. Sure, it's great you live in beautiful California, but when you are living in a box it sure doesn't seem so great.

I live in a 950 sq ft downtown 2 BR/2BA condo. Those with 3000 sq ft homes in Texas would call it a "box". I call it all the space I want to clean and maintain and plenty of room for just me and a cat. When adding up costs, don't forget to consider the $70/month electric bills (winter/summer--no difference in coastal CA) and lack of need to own a car (if I can't walk, which I often can, I can summon an Uber in minutes and there's a number of ZipCars in the condo garage if needed). There's no yard or roof or other exterior to maintain.

The gorgeous CA coast is minutes away in either direction--north or south. I can be in "wine country" in an hour, the mountains in a couple of hours. World class opera, symphony, ballet and dining are short walks from my door. Professional sports are an Uber or subway ride across town (all barring COVID of course).

From my "box" I have a "city lights view" in 2 directions and I can get anything--literally anything--delivered to me (and the "box" concierge will accept it for me if I don't want to wait around for the delivery).

CA life just ain't so bad and a lot that is free or nearly so would cost plenty elsewhere.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by kurt angle

But Coastal California rent is absolutely an impossible task for many. She's 100% right.

People aren't leaving because they feel like it. They're leaving because the cost of living has gotten insane.

Make the average rent in Texas $2600 for 1BD and see how fast the state empties out. It'll make the California exodus look like nothing.

This. They don't think Arizona or Texas is better, necessarily.
It's a cost issue.
Yea, all things being even it's a very different story lol.

[sopas ej]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

On the flip side, there seems to be this idea among liberals that everyone on Earth wants to live there.

Oh really? Well that's a new one, I've never heard that. I thought everyone on Earth wanted to move to Paris or something.

[edale]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

The biggest county-to-county shift during this pandemic has not been from San Francisco to some out-of-state location but from Santa Clara to Sacramento and the Central Valley. That far outstrips any migration to Seattle or Austin or anywhere else, and that further perpetuates the connection between the Bay Area and it's outlying areas, which means the CSA is going to get bigger.

Seems like Sacramento is on its way to becoming the Bay Area's Inland Empire.


Also, while yes, conservatives and the US media generally does like to post sensational stories about a CA exodus, I'm puzzled why so many Californians appear to care about this. How many articles get posted to this forum gloating about the extreme prosperity of the Bay Area? California is a beautiful state that has an embarrassment of riches. It also has its share of problems, and the growth machine that has fueled the state since its inception is starting to slow down...those things are also worth noting. People complaining about this come off as thin skinned, imo.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by edale

the growth machine that has fueled the state since its inception is starting to slow down...those things are also worth noting.

First of all, this seems a self-correcting issue to me. IF it's slowing down, it's largely because of the relatively high cost of living in CA. IF it does slow down, that cost will become less extreme compared to other places and the growth will return because the things that produced it in the first place--the natural wonders of the CA coast and mountains, the cultural glories of the Bay Area and the prowess of the local universities--aren't going away.

But I'm not so sure it is going away. The story has long been that businesses are created in the Bay Area and some of them expand to other areas or move away entirely as they mature. But if you want to get in on the ground floor, or create a ground floor yourself, the Bay Area has long been the place to do it.

[Obadno]

"San Francisco isnt failing I promise!!!!!!"

I work with many San Francisco Landlords and they can't get their buildings filled.

This article may be correct but I doubt its telling the whole or accurate story

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by Obadno

"San Francisco isnt failing I promise!!!!!!"

I work with many San Francisco Landlords and they can't get their buildings filled.

The chart provides the proper rebuttal to your comment.

1 San Francisco itself might be losing population

2 but they arent really moving out-of-state to anywhere near the degree that the media has been reporting.

3 In fact, 94% of people that left SF proper have relocated to other areas of California and 81% are moving to other Bay Area counties.

This article may be correct but I doubt its telling the whole or accurate story

Or the narrative being spread ad nauseum by the media is a gross exaggeration.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

The chart provides the proper rebuttal to your comment.

1 San Francisco itself might be losing population

2 but they arent really moving out-of-state to anywhere near the degree that the media has been reporting.

3 In fact, 94% of people that left SF proper have relocated to other areas of California and 81% are moving to other Bay Area counties.


Or the narrative being spread ad nauseum by the media is a gross exaggeration.

It's funny , those same people take incredible offense when you tell them it's a small percentage of leaving the state. They want it to be like 25 percent or somr crap.
Why do they even care so much in the first place?

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by Obadno

"San Francisco isnt failing I promise!!!!!!"

I work with many San Francisco Landlords and they can't get their buildings filled.

This article may be correct but I doubt its telling the whole or accurate story

I remember 2000-2003. All the recent grads with tech jobs moved back home or somewhere else then too. By the mid-2000s they were coming back.

San Francisco has been like this for a long time--highly cyclical. This time is different in 2 ways that I can see: (1) The city's "other" big economic engine, tourism and hospitality (hotels, fine dining) is in worse shape than tech and (2) all the attractions of city living are gone, not just the jobs.

But it will all come back. When COVID is beaten, and it will be like every epidemic/pandemic in history has been, tourism, dining, art and culture, sports, entertainment and night life will come back and the city will be "fun" again and people, including probably some who moved elsewhere in CA, will want to live in it. The younger ones especially won't want to live in the city just for a short commute so I don't think it matters as much as some think whether they can work from home a large part of the time or not; but I also think they will be expected to show up in the office maybe half the time so the cummute will still matter.

Those unfilled buildings will fill up, just like the "Richmond Special" condos in SOMA that lingered unsold for a year or two in the early 2000s eventually sold for higher and higher prices (this time rentals may be more severely effected because of the tremendous loss of lower wage service jobs in the hospitality industry).

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

First of all, this seems a self-correcting issue to me. IF it's slowing down, it's largely because of the relatively high cost of living in CA. IF it does slow down, that cost will become less extreme compared to other places and the growth will return because the things that produced it in the first place--the natural wonders of the CA coast and mountains, the cultural glories of the Bay Area and the prowess of the local universities--aren't going away.

Yeah, anyone who thinks California's economic growth is predicated on population growth doesnt understand the nature of the state economy. California's GDP is growing faster than Texas and Florida despite having far lower population growth.