[JoninATX]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

With COVID-19 deaths plus no immigration, the US is set to decline between mid-2020 and mid-2021. By 2030, people born in 1950 (4 million) will start to die en masse (the US life expectancy is 78 y/o) and therefore there will be close to 4 million people dying every year by 2030. Births are decline steadily and will be around 3.5 million (optimisti) or below 3 million (pessimist).

1 million immigrants will be required to keep population stable. Much more to keep it growing.



No, they haven't. It's at 1.69 and falling. And as life expectancy is very low for a developed country, earlier deaths make things more complicated.



I don't understand why should I be worry about the UK or Brazil, nor how this has any implications on the US demographics challenges.

The UK is attracting not fewer immigrants than US, despite being an overcrowded island with 1/5 of the US population. In any case, as the whole world minus Africa and Middle East, is set to decline somewhere between 2020-2050.

Same for Brazil: population is younger than the US, life expectancy growing, but low TFR (1.70, like the US) will make the country to shrink between the late 2030's or early 2040's, few years after the US.

I agree with this. Nothing wrong with having less people.