Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford
Yuri, your premise is wrong because you're using current data to extrapolate outward, which is nonsense. It would be like forecasting German demographic data based on WW2 years.
There has been an almost total freeze of international inmigration, which was unprecedented in modern American history. That freeze is ending, within days.
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My premise would be wrong if I was talking about far future, 2060, 2070.
I'm talking about 2030-2035, which is just round the corner. Demographics are like train moving. If they turn off the engine, they will keep going for a while and you can easily predict where/when it will finally stop. And the opposite is true: if it restart, it will take a while to reach an optimical speed.
Aside my tongue in cheek 2020-2021 comment, I'm only referring to pre-Covid, the
2007-2019 developments. It's a very clear trend of collapsing births, with an always rising deaths. Even Trump's anti-immigration stance won't make much difference here, as fertility rates are dropping like a rock.
It's very well-documented millenials are having very few children in the US and elsewhere (even Europe that enjoyed some TFR recovery is once again falling), further depressing demographics.