Quote:
Originally Posted by mrnyc
no. covid aside, deaths are poor lately because the current leading baby boomer generation is dying off. down the line there are more millenials than boomers, so even with zero immigration in the future that eras day in the setting sun will be within a larger population than today.
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Baby Boomers are not dying off today. Silents are, and they are a much smaller generation. When they will, the number of yearly deaths will jump from the current 2.9 million to 4 million around 2030-2035.
American women are already having 1.69 children when 2.07 children are necessary to make population
stable in the long run. Without (a lot) immigration the US population will decline rather soon than late.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrnyc
as for population, of course when the trump value on immigration is reopened ... next month ... immigration levels could be anything. more than 1 million immigrants typically legally arrive in the usa each year, with china, india, mexico and phillipines in that order having the most lately. the usa has by far the most foreign born and accepts the most immigrants of any nation, there is no reason to think that would not continue as we move forward.
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By the late 2030's, deaths might be exceeding births by 1 million. So those 1 million immigrants will be enough to make population stagnant, not to grow.