[mhays]

Uber/Lyft have at multiple possible effects, and it plays out differently by city -- in some cities it might encourage more people to use transit, and in others (at least so far) people use it less. Some of the factors that come to mind include:
1. Is the Uber/Lyft driver pay structure favorable for getting plenty of drivers, allowing faster pick-ups?
2. Do the roads make driving easy and quick? Are there HOV-2 lanes?
3. Is transit frequent, quick (can relate to dedicated lanes or rail), and reasonably pleasant (is behavior policed, and does the average worker ride it)?
4. On the flip side, are a lot of transit riders able to pay for Uber/Lyft, i.e. what's ridership by income or net worth?
5. Are Uber/Lyft/transit enough to get people to ditch car ownership?
6. How concentrated are jobs, i.e. near transit?
7. Is transit being added or subtracted?

I bet some of these factors will show themselves in cities that are rising/falling with transit use.

Mine, Seattle, was rising very slowly early in the year at least for a couple agencies. Let's see:
1. I don't know how their pay structure varies, but the city is expensive.
2. The roads are jammed, but HOV lanes are common.
3. Transit is rarely excellent but it's decent everywhere, including HOV lanes to make buses fast, and a lot of sub-10-minute frequencies at rush hours. The average rider income is pretty close to the regional average.
4. Uh oh.
5. Yes. Between cost and these options (along with walking), a lot of people don't have cars. A lot of people spend $2,500 for housing with no parking, take the bus or walk to work, and use Lyft on nights out.
6. Fairly concentrated on the white collar side. Same with most construction.
7. Added. Rail is slowly being added but we've upped bus service quite a bit lately.