[mhays]

San Diego's 40m capacity sounds like waay more than practical. It did 24m last year and 25m in 2019. Growing much beyond that on one runway seems problematic regardless of terminal space.

As of 2019, the 40m goal projected a 67% increase in passengers but just 24% more flights, due to bigger and fuller planes. They also say they'd need to spread planes across the day more, rather than a lot of people bunching at popular times. I imagine any weather delays would stack things up far worse than at most airports.

Since the ideas of a second airport (omitting the one on the border) appears to be off the table, I suspect the reality will be slower growth than expected. The more painful and expensive the airport is, the fewer passengers you'll get. Some will drive to greater LA, some will drive, some just won't visit... Of course the 40m figure is from before Covid, and traffic hasn't even gotten to the 2019 level yet as of year-end.