[eschaton]

One of the primary reasons why transit will remain competitive with rented autonomous vehicles for some time is rush-hour demand. It will never be profitable for companies like Uber to provide enough cars for rush-hour commuters, because a large portion of said cars would then sit idle for the remainder of the day. Auto-car rental companies will have the highest profit margins if they can keep their car continually generating revenue. Obviously in most cities there will be very few people driving in the early morning hours, and some parking on the street will need to happen, but the less hours per day a car is parked somewhere the better. Indeed, I would expect the companies eventually engage in "market pricing" - downgrading their cost during times when there is low usage, and marking it up during high demand, in an effort to get maximum dollar value out.

Self-driving cars could actually help transit along main corridors to some degree, because they solve the "last mile" issue with suburban transit stations.

Concerns about self-driving cars choking up residential parking spaces are unfounded, IMHO, because as I said, a well-run logistics or auto-cab company should virtually never have its cars parked, and within ten years we'll start having a surfeit of parking in most locations regardless.