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Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 1:22 AM
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yuriandrade yuriandrade is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Brazil and Mexico both have plummeting fertility rates and are emigrant nations. They'll both have lower fertility rates than the U.S. in the near-term.

Mexico City has barely grown in decades. It's actually very similar to NYC and LA in that it gets tons of domestic outmigration to cheaper, fast-growing metros within a day's drive. Booming places like Queretaro and Irapuato are basically the Raleigh and Nashville of Mexico (cheap, attractive, sprawl cities).
Brazil is not an emigrant nation. Less than 1% of Brazilians live abroad. In fact, Brazil probably runs a small migration surplus. Even though fertility rate in the country falls, São Paulo metropolitan growth is on the national average whereas New York grows slower than the US for almost a century. Moreover, São Paulo is surrounded by fast growing and dynamic metro areas that might eventually been engulfed into its metropolitan system. Meanwhile New York is all by itself. Big dense urban core surrounded by ultra-low density exurbs for tens of miles in every direction.

Mexico City is a more complicated case, Unlike São Paulo, it faces competition with other more dynamic aregions and its not much wealthier than the national average (São Paulo metro area GDP is 2x higher than national average). Said that, Mexico City is the national capital and country's primary city and that counts a lot.

Both São Paulo and Mexico City metro areas add every year 3x-4x more people than New York and I don't see that changing any time soon.