Originally Posted by emathias
We'll have better numbers for Chicago next year, once this year's Census is complete.
It also depends on exactly how you define Central Chicago. One definition would be to use these ZIP codes: 60601, 60602, 60603, 60604, 60605, 60606, 60607, 60610, 60611, 60616, 60642, and 60654, which basically includes the Loop, The Near North Side (which includes River North, Streeterville, the Gold Coast, and most of Old Town), most of the West Loop, and most of the Near South Side, which includes the South Loop. The population of those zip codes summed is a little over 190,000 people in around 12.8 square miles or around 16 square km, in 2010, and around 241,000 in 2017. Those are densities of 15k and almost 19k.
Those numbers are fairly well accepted, however the inclusion of 60616 is a little disputed because it's further south than some think should be included. Plus, the area called the "Central Area" by The City of Chicago is closer to the area without 60616.
So, without 60616, the area is 8.8 square miles with a population of 145,569 in 2010 and 186,982 in 2017, and densities of 16.5k sq/mi and 21.25k sq/mi.
Similarly, we could use the official, City-defined community areas of the Loop, Near North Side, Near South Side, and Near West Side. That area had a population of 145,219 in 2000, 186,038 in 2010, and about 204,045 in 2015 in an area of 11.8 sq/mi. Density would be 12.3k, 15.8k, and 17.3k, respectively.
But including the Near West Side is a little tricky because it is huge and includes areas definitely not part of downtown. So without the Near West Side, the Central Area would have a population of 98,800 in 2000, 131,157 in 2010, and 142,277 in 2015, in an area of 6.05 sq/mi. That leaves densities of 16.3, 21.7, and 23.5 sq/mi, in 2000, 2010, and 2015.
Personally, I think the estimates using the ZIP codes without 60616 are closest to what most Chicagoans would consider to be the Central Area or downtown. And since 2017, all those areas have added considerable numbers of apartments, and I think the total population downtown has likely increased by 25k since 2017, leaving us with a population of about 210,000 in 8.8 sq/mi or maybe 170,000 in 6.05 square miles using community areas without the Near West, implying densities of 23.9k sq/mi or 28.1k sq/mi.
So somewhere around 200,000 people in 7-8 square miles with density around 25,000 per square mile.
And, I think there's a good chance that by 2030 Central Chicago aka greater downtown could hit a quarter million people. And if we create a more nuanced set of borders maybe even more. With any luck, 2050 should see the population loss in the outer neighborhoods end and the population growth in and near downtown should result in positive growth, maybe enough to reach 3 million for the city and over 300,000 in the Central Area by then
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