Quote:
Originally Posted by pj3000
I think this is interesting in contrast to Pennsylvania counties/metros that trump flipped from blue to red in 2016.
Erie (Erie)
2012 - Obama 59-40
2016 - trump 48-46
2020 - Biden 50-49
Northampton (Bethlehem, Easton)
2012 - Obama 52-47
2016 - trump 50-46
2020 - Biden 50-49
Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre)
2012 - Obama 52-47
2016 - trump 58-39
2020 - trump 57-42
The big swings are really telling...
- Erie County basically became the unfortunate national poster child for the Obama to trump flip. A solidly and reliably blue county that goes roughly 60% for Obama in 2012, barely ends up for trump by like 1,500 votes (only because some suburban areas went a little bit "purple"). Notable that Hillary did not set foot in Erie County, and barely was in PA during her 2016 campaign.
- Luzerne County going so hard red in 2016 and staying red in 2020 by a significant margin is notable.
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Erie and Northampton Counties look fairly similar to Michigan's Obama-Trump-Biden transition. But Luzerne looks more interesting than the others, IMO. Luzerne going from decently Obama to raging MAGA is wild.