Quote:
Originally Posted by LeftCoaster
I'm not sure I follow your math here Chad.
Assuming a 10% growth rate over 15 years or .67% average annual growth rate, that implies that the current 2016 population of the CER is 1.83 million. That seems astoundingly high to me.
Alternatively I think your growth rate is too low. 0.67% is anemic, and even if oil doesn't recover soon, which seems likely, that still seems low to me. I think Calgary's stabilized growth rate over the next 5-10 years will be somewhere in the 1.1-1.3% AAGR range.
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The Calgary CMA population is 1.4M today. Assuming moderate economic growth, it will add approximately 200K over the next ten years. We all like to argue these numbers, but I can close to guarantee (give or the take) 1.6M will be Calgary's CMA population in 2026. Only major unforeseen shocks (war, economic collapse or massive boom) can really shift the needle on bigger cities population counts.