Quote:
Originally Posted by iheartthed
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the U.S. has a negative growth rate in 2020 due to COVID. The country grew by about 1M in 2019, which was already relatively slow. There are already more than 200K confirmed deaths due to COVID, and who knows how many unconfirmed. Combine that with typical deaths from other causes, along with zero immigration due to closed borders, and negative growth for the U.S. is well within the realm of possibility.
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In 2019, there were 3.745 million births and 2.855 million deaths in the US. Considering births going down to 3.65-3.70 million and an excess of 250k deaths, meaning 3.1 million deaths overall. Immigration will probably fall to close to zero, but even then we'd have a
600k increase for 2020.
That's why I think negative growth is extremely unlike for this year. Negative
natural growth, however, will happen during this decade.