Quote:
Originally Posted by Obadno
Because this is not a generalized lack of demand from an over-inflated asset like homes or some liquidity crisis.
This is artificially blocked demand. The overall economic forces from a month ago didn't change, we purposely are blocking them. This is closer to a wartime shock than it is a "depression". Think 1940 or 2001 not 1929 or 2008.
The biggest issue is small restaurants and retailer not being able to make it through but we'll see. The vast majority of the layoffs for now are restaurant and retail workers (I know not all but most). Unless this drags on under full shut down for months and months we should bounce back most of the "losses" fairly quickly. and by quickly I mean within the year.
If we can start opening up again by the summer then we might have a very sharp decline in 2nd q but then growth after that which would technically not even count as a recession.
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We have nearly 7 million unemployed now, the most ever by an order of magnitude. The unbridled optimism of a month ago was beaten with a stick.
It is ridiculous to think that people are just going to return to normal after having their lifelines cut off.
And this will continue for a long time. Even if shelter-in-place orders are lifted, you can think of that as a temporary measure until the next order. And it will keep hanging around until everyone is vaccinated.
The people downplaying this have been wrong every single time.