[thurmas]

Originally Posted by esquire

There's no way that the CFL isn't in trouble at the moment. The private owners are wealthy and the community owned teams are in good shape but the league's continued existence pretty well depends on the teams being willing to run at a loss. That's pretty well a given for a year, but it becomes a lot more iffy if the current situation drags on beyond 2021. If Montreal and maybe one other team go under, suddenly the league is teetering on the edge.

That said, I think the CFL has a bit of a problem where it occupies an awkward middle space between major leagues and minor leagues. Team overhead is pretty high with ballooning coaching and administrative budgets, but team income from TV and tickets is not really in line with that. I suppose the NFL could be a lifeline if things get really dire, but I think a better approach is to scale the CFL's expenses down in line with the league's realities. In other words, cut costs and move more in the direction of a CPL scaled league. Make it a league with finances that are based on attendance of say, 12,000 a game instead of 25,000. That also has the huge benefit of opening up smaller markets to expansion... suddenly, places like Halifax, Quebec City, Moncton, Saskatoon, Victoria, K-W, London, etc. all become realistic expansion prospects because you no longer need the mid-major league CFL/MLS style 25,000 seat new stadium. A place like Moncton's stadium augmented by a few temporary stands becomes a perfectly fine venue.

That said, I don't think the CFL is alone in this regard. If covid drags on and we don't return to 100% capacity again I could see other leagues losing teams too. The NHL, for example, definitely has a few weak links that will be in deep trouble. But the CFL is probably the canary in the coal mine here and will have to face a reckoning sooner than those other leagues will.

The 3 community owned clubs WPG, SSK, EDM are all very healthy, the 3 mid range clubs are at or close to break even every year CGY, OTT, HAM the big city clubs BC, TOR and MTL are the clubs that struggle the most. What may have to happen is have a Western Canada Football league the eastern teams may die off or Rogers starts a new Eastern Canada Football league buys up the 4 eastern teams and challenges the TSN or Shaw based WCFL at the Grey Cup.