[Comrade]

No Democrat was going to win Ohio - not even if Obama was running for a third term. That state is completely within Trump's gravitational pull that yes, even Sherrod Brown likely would have lost the state if he had decided to run for president.

So, no, I don't see Bernie winning Ohio.

I also think a big reason Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were closer than many expected is because of the protests and looting and defund the police narrative that swept through the country in the summer. In that regard, Biden was pretty moderate and able to stake out a position that wasn't wholly controversial. Even still, it hurt him in those states.

Take Kenosha County, Wisconsin. We all know what happened in Kenosha this summer. Trump actually did better in that county in 2020 than he did in 2016. There is no other explanation for that, since his support in the Milwaukee area decreased, other than the fact a good chunk of the downtown was decimated by looters and rioters tied to the Defund Police movement.

I was skeptical of Trump's 'Democrats want to destroy the cities' rhetoric but I absolutely think it had some level of impact. Not in the actual cities, or even the marginal suburbs, but the exburbs and smaller towns.

But I think Biden had just enough appeal to the suburban communities due to his more moderate approach on defunding the police than I think Bernie would have had - even though I don't think Bernie would have ever come out in support of such policy.

Look at Waukesha County, Wisconsin (a suburban county to Milwaukee). This is a county Trump won by 27 points over Hillary in 2016. he still won the county by a lot in 2020, but by 21 points this go around. That six-point difference doesn't seem like a lot but considering how close Wisconsin was in 2016, and how close it was again in 2020, it likely was the difference. Had Clinton lost it by that margin in 2016, she wins the state (though, of course, not the presidency).

I am skeptical Bernie does as well as Biden did in that county.

In fact, Biden actually did better in this county than Obama did in 2012 (by 13 points).

I think you'd see similar trends in Pennsylvania, where Biden did much better than Hillary in suburban Philadelphia counties like Chester, which Hillary won by ten in 2016 and Biden carried by 17 in 2020. Even in Bucks County, a county Hillary barely won in 2016 (by .8 points, Biden won by 4.3), there was enough shift to deliver him the state. I am skeptical Bernie has the suburban appeal needed to counter the likely surge of support Trump still sees in the rural areas of these states.

I think Bernie may have played better in Texas, though. Enough to win the state? Unlikely. But I think he would have done better along the border than Biden did. Conversely, I also think he loses Florida by a wider margin, as it's very clear Biden was dinged by the socialism label and Bernie absolutely would have had a bigger problem with it.

States I think Bernie wins that Biden won:

Michigan (maybe)
Arizona
Nevada
Virginia

States Biden won that I think Bernie would have lost:

Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Georgia

I am skeptical Bernie would have been able to get out the Black vote in Georgia like Biden did. Maybe he could have, especially with a Black running-mate, but I don't know ... and that could have also kneecapped him in Michigan, as well.

I don't see him winning a state Biden didn't win, however.

And unfortunately for Bernie, even with Arizona, that map doesn't get him to 270. He would need to win Pennsylvania, or win Wisconsin +NE2 (which I think he could have done) and that latter map gets him right at 270 and with all the fraud claims from Team Trump, it only takes one faithless elector to throw a race that close to the House.

Biden put together a very unique coalition of urban Blacks and suburban voters that won him this race. I do not know if any other candidate running on the Democratic side, outside maybe Corey Booker, could have done something similar.