Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford
I think this is probably a fair statement, in 2020, at least.
A majority of those living in gated-style communities (which are overwhelmingly sprawl typologies) will probably vote Dem, at least for Prez.
Of course those same communities probably went for McCain, Bush, Reagan, and Romney, but allegiances have shifted, and demographics have changed.
Looking at census-tract level gated areas of suburban Detroit, they seemed to vote about 55% Clinton in 2016, so 60% in 2020 sounds like a safe bet given the pace of realignment. Also communities that were near-100% white are increasingly Asian, and Asians overwhelmingly vote Dem.
Of course, this is all balanced by the fact that rural areas have gone from 50-50 to 75-25 red.
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Nowhere demonstrates this better than Orange County. The famously conservative (for Coastal California) county that has long been a red stronghold in a sea of blue not only went blue for Clinton in 2016, but also flipped a number of House seats blue in 2018. Educated, well off people who live in somewhat cosmopolitan environments are completely put off by the anti-science, brazenly racist MAGA crowd. That, and as you say, the burbs are becoming more diverse.