I can foresee this scenario playing out during the last few days of the AB campaign:
1. WR in lead in polls;
2. PCs in 2nd;
3. NDP in 3rd;
And same poli dynamic coming into play at the very end of the campaign as in 2012 - soft NDP parked votes return to vote PC to stave off potential WR victory as polls indicate to public. Another 2012 re-run.
Completely different election dynamics in Alberta. The fed Harper Cons had MASSIVE vote majorities in virtually all AB ridings in 2011. NDP and even Liberal/AB Party are poli losers provincially with that underlying poli dynamic. At the end of the day. No doubt.
BTW, I would categorize Prentice as more of a "red tory" or "blue liberal" along the lines of Frank McKenna for example. Not a stereotypical social-con, right-wing federal CPC type. In fact, Prentice comes across, to me at least, as someone who is very similar to Peter Lougheed.
And Prentice bringing over WR MLAs was just a poli strategic move - which obviously has not worked out - and perhaps even back-fired - to date.
As for the apparent NDP polling share increase in Alberta - good grief! Alberta oil sands are a "high-cost"/'high break-even point" proposition in today's oil reality/environment. Any upward change to those royalty rates or royalty rate structure (through social-engineering) would further "kill the goose that laid the golden egg" for AB.
Furthermore, an oil refinery has not been constructed in North America since the early 1980's. For good reason. Demand is not there as well as non-existent economics/slim or non-existent margins. Even heavy oil upgraders to synthetic crude are also uneconomic in Alberta these days.
Yet... here today comes along the AB NDP with their loony economic policy:
Quote:
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NDP’s Notley Promises Royalty Changes To Boost Oil Refining in Province
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http://www.660news.com/2015/04/10/nd...g-in-province/
The AB NDP would obviously further place a knife within AB's current teetering oil sands with their inferred royalty structure increase. How anyone would be able to vote NDP, under that scenario, is beyond me.
Reminds me of the BC NDP during the May, 2013 BC provincial election campaign coming out against the Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning to the coast - it became a "symbol" of the BC NDP coming out against the BC economy as a whole - against natural gas development, mining, LNG, etc. The BC NDP were cast as "Dr. No". No against resource development. Remember... "It's about the economy, stupid".
Even the BC unionized Building Trades were stupefied at the time. Their membership as well as the unionized forestry and mining sectors voted strongly BC Lib in 2013. Suspect same reaction will occur toward AB NDP as we move forward during the AB campaign.
PS. Forgot to mention that the BC NDP "promised" to bring in a "$1 billion+" budget deficit every year, moving forward - Compared to the BC Lib's promise to keep a balanced budget, which promise that they have held. Further ingrained the "tax & spend" stigma that the BC NDP retains. Same old NDP - just different province.