[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

And get this: one of the studies linked above estimates population for metros from 2014 to 2044 (a bit long-term, but I want to draw these numbers out for y'all because I find them interesting and we all love talking about this kind of stuff. I'm just gonna list all the metros over 1 million at the 2044 date and bold the cities in Texas and the two examples above.

(city: 2014 metro estimate in millions to 2044 metro forecast in millions)

New York City: 20.10 to 20.44
Los Angeles:^ 13.27 to 14.53
Dallas-Fort Worth: 6.97 to 10.93
Chicago: 9.56 to 10.48
Houston: 6.51 to 10.12
Atlanta: 5.62 to 8.49
Miami: 5.93 to 8.05
D.C.: 6.04 to 7.75
Phoenix: 4.50 to 7.49
Riverside:^ 4.45 to 7.42
Philadelphia: 6.05 to 6.37
San Francisco:^ 4.60 to 5.59
Boston: 4.74 to 5.25
Seattle: 3.68 to 4.77
Detroit: 4.30 to 4.25
Minneapolis: 3.50 to 4.18
San Diego: 3.27 to 4.17
Tampa Bay: 2.92 to 4.10
Denver: 2.76 to 4.02
Orlando: 2.33 to 3.90
Charlotte: 2.39 to 3.63
Austin: 1.95 to 3.63
San Antonio: 2.33 to 3.58
Sacramento: 2.25 to 3.31
Las Vegas: 2.07 to 3.19
Portland: 2.35 to 3.10
Baltimore: 2.79 to 3.07
St. Louis: 2.81 to 2.99
Indianapolis: 1.97 to 2.63
Kansas City: 2.07 to 2.61
San Jose:^ 1.96 to 2.53
Nashville: 1.80 to 2.45
Columbus: 2.00 to 2.42
Pittsburgh: 2.36 to 2.32
Cincinnati: 2.15 to 2.27
Raleigh: 1.25 to 2.17
Jacksonville: 1.42 to 2.06
Hampton Roads: 1.72 to 2.05
Cleveland: 2.06 to 1.97
Salt Lake City: 1.16 to 1.82
Oklahoma City: 1.34 to 1.73
Providence: 1.61 to 1.67
Milwaukee: 1.57 to 1.62
Memphis: 1.34 to 1.59
Richmond: 1.27 to 1.53
McAllen: 0.83 to 1.50
Louisville: 1.27 to 1.48
Tampa: 1.01 to 1.38
New Orleans: 1.25 to 1.30
Cape Coral: 0.68 to 1.29
Birmingham: 1.14 to 1.27
Fresno: 0.97 to 1.27
Bakersfield: 0.88 to 1.26
Hartford: 1.21 to 1.22
Albuquerque: 0.90 to 1.20
Grand Rapids: 1.03 to 1.17
Omaha: 0.91 to 1.16
Sarasota: 0.75 to 1.13
Greenville: 0.86 to 1.12
El Paso: 0.84 to 1.10
Honolulu: 0.99 to 1.08
Boise: 0.67 to 1.08
Oxnard: 0.85 to 1.06
Columbia: 0.80 to 1.06
Knoxville: 0.96 to 1.04
Worcester: 0.93 to 1.02
Ogden: 0.63 to 1.02
Rochester: 1.08 to 1.01
Charleston: 0.73 to 1.01
Stockton: 0.72 to 1.01

Over the past 25+ years, my population growth estimation matrix has been pretty damn spot on. Most of these "National" estimations are extremely conservative and do not take into affect the micro environments of the cities in which they are estimating.

Having said that, based on my current calculations, regionally the Austin metro should be in the neighborhood of 3.7 million by 2035 and 4.3 million by 2040...San Antonio's metro: 3.5 million by 2035 and 3.9 million by 2040.