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Old Posted Oct 19, 2019, 12:02 AM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Brooklyn, NYC/Polanco, DF
Posts: 20,020
LA, for a while now, has had slow growth, and has detached from the Sunbelt model of growth. The fringe isn't growing much anymore. The Sunbelt boomed due to weather, low cost, govt. subsidy (esp. military) and Mexican immigration. Really only the weather is relevant to LA now. It has the same advantages (and disadvantages) of the high-cost slow-growth metros.

I think LA will continue to grow, but slowly, and doubt it will be the largest U.S. metro in the next century, if ever. LA is already freaking huge. 18-19 million people by CSA. I cannot imagine 30 million people in LA.

Dallas and Houston, eventually will slow down. After a certain size, it's very difficult to grow, because costs skyrocket, congestion increases and some smaller, cheaper city will draw the working class. Dallas is at nearly 8 million now. Dallas will probably surpass Chicago, but I can't see it doubling in size in my lifetime.

Also, the U.S. is different than other countries in that you don't need to be in a major city for access to good jobs, good schools, culture, etc. If you're in, say, France, there's Paris and everywhere else feels like the boondocks. So people will put up with higher prices, greater congestion, etc. In the U.S., people just move somewhere else.