Quote:
Originally Posted by JManc
Population decline is a gradual process. China is facing shrinking birthrates and an ageing population but their population is still predicted to peak at around 1.4 billion in 10-15 years compared to 1.3 billion now before it begins to drop. Even then, China will still have roughly a billion by the end of the century. Sub-Saharan Africa and India will continue to fuel global population growth for the foreseeable future. The 2 million immigrants the US needs won't be an obstacle for centuries.
As for the US, our birthrate is below replacement levels and the population is growing due to immigration but even their birthrates are dropping.
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Indeed it's a gradual process, as larger cohorts of the past will produce enough children to replace population for at least 30 years after TFR goes below 2.0.
The problem starts before the population decline, as the growing numbers of old people put pressure on the public spending.
And what I'm arguing since the beginning is not that the US will start declining any time soon, but that those huge double-digit/decade growth rates will no longer happen and that, of course, will reflect on lower metropolitan growth rates everywhere, including the Sun Belt.