[MonkeyRonin]

Quebec is well poised to benefit from the increasing unaffordability of Montreal - it's cheaper, it's nearby, and it's a very attractive city; which makes it a viable alternative for many Quebecois.

Winnipeg on the other hand will be able to siphon off people priced out of the increasingly unaffordable entirety of Anglo Canada - but it's comparatively less well positioned to do so. It's remote, has a harsher climate than any other major city, and has...a few other factors that makes it not the most appealing place to live.

In other words, Winnipeg has a larger pool of people to draw from, but is going to have a harder time attracting them than Quebec will from its smaller pool. I think it's a toss-up as to which hits a million first - though from a purely statistical standpoint, Quebec does also have a more populated rural hinterland which could conceivably be pulled into its CMA even with lower growth.