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Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark
I say this in all sincerity. Perhaps I'm just not seeing this as clearly as others, but there does seem to be potential for light at the end of the tunnel.
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I think this is a transitionary phase.
Vancouver is landlocked by geography. A single family home with a yard is a $2M asset. If you go our to Surrey or another suburban area that is not attainable for the average middle class family. It is going to be less attainable with new zoning that has come in that has much of the existing single family lots zoned for multi-family. The expectation should be if your living in that area your going to raise your kids in a multi-family home. The same expectation exists in much of Europe and many cities in Asia. It is just not the North American "dream". Europeans have been able successful living in dense cities for a long time.
In Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Halifax etc. that dream is still achievable. Urban sprawl is still possible.
The fact a condo or townhome is also expensive is a problem that needs to be corrected.
Quote:
Originally Posted by P'tit Renard
We still have the upcoming mortgage rate renewal cliff coming up, and with US rate cuts being delayed, the economic turbulence going forward will make 2023-2024 look like a breeze. Further currency devaluation, stagflation and more mass layoffs (especially in the bloated banking and real estate sectors) is in the cards.
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I don't think we are going to see massive disruption to individuals from the mortgage rate renewal cliff. The government has changed the rules and is likely encourage the banks to show flexibility at renewal. Some people are going to end up with crappy mortgages that have them extending repayment out to retirement. That said, those mortgages will come up for renewal again in a few years.
Where I think we are going to see massive problems is with developers. Some of those guys have purchased extremely expensive land, they have much higher construction labour and material costs and the selling price for their units are soft. They are not getting the pre-sales they were expecting. That is where we may see some significant losses. There is already grumbling that some of those projects that have not broken ground are in trouble.
Good thing the feds are stepping in.