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2) China is even further ahead in an expressway plan which dwarfs the Interstate Highways of the United States. Funny, since no one is complaining about them requiring bailouts. 3) It doesn't really matter in itself if the high speed railways lose money. The main purpose of China's high speed railways is to free up space on the regular system for more freight trains, which are profitable. The increase in profit should pay for the loss in passenger trains. 4) There were plenty of naysayers when France, Germany, Spain, and Britain opened their high speed railway systems. Where are they now? It's also interesting to note that China's creation myth also involved a great flood. But unlike the Bible, where humans are helpless in the face of God's wrath, China's flood involved a wise engineer commanding an army of workers to build innovative drainage systems to defeat the flood. So the obsession with massive projects is as central to Chinese culture as Noah's Ark is to the Abrahamic religions. Some were white elephants, while others were crowning achievements in history. But I don't think high speed rail is the former. |
I think that article misses the point, I'd argue today's California doesn't need 220 mph rail between SF-LA, but 2040's California sure will. The question is how much money will 40 billion in 2010 dollars save in 2040 dollars. For example, when oil price peaked in '08, airlines increased the cost of their flights by 30%. As 2 billion Chinese and Indians buy their first car, the demand for oil is going to skyrocket, and those 30% surcharges on flights are going to become the norm. A high speed rail line won't be effected directly by those energy cost and can function to as a cost-competitive mechanism to 1) get people from place to place relatively cheaply 2) compete directly with the airlines to reduce costs. I don't have the numbers to tell you what the cost-benefit but whenever somebody throws the term "boondoggle" around, chances are they haven't worked that out either.
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So no, I don't see how it will be sucessful in China or that there's much hope for California.
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Further, Chinese stations have to be designed with excess capacity given the demands of the Spring Festival travel peak (the largest yearly movement of people in the world). |
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Rail never makes money. That's a fact for every system in the world. Even ones with 12 million plus daily ridership, it's still losing money.
However...........................rail provides for significantly higher property tax revenues for counties and states as there is higher density allowed to be created due to the fixed transit guideway put in place. Cities with large rail systems have some of the highest tax revenue collections in order to subsidize the system. Highways need the gas tax for subsidies (and even that is running low on cash due to more fuel efficient cars hitting the market). Rail takes a portion of existing county sales tax in order to keep running. |
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China's construction of large railway stations is no different than the global phenomenon of cities building larger airports than they need at the present time - it's called future-proofing, and it often saves money in the long run.
I will again point out that many of these stations are not fully operational considering many of the lines they have been designed to serve are still under construction and will not be operational for anywhere between 1 and 5 years. Just as an example, the Hongqiao Integrated Traffic Hub here in Shanghai is designed to serve several HSR lines (including the major Shanghai-Beijing and Shanghai-Hong Kong lines) that will not be operational until 2011 at the absolute earliest. As a result, the passenger numbers at Hongqiao are not as high as they will be when all lines are open, so the station AT PRESENT seems like it's bigger than it needs to be - but when all the lines are open and operational, people will be very glad it was built to the size it its now. |
This isn't a thread about China, folks. Try to stick to the subject.
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Seriously though, you know nothing about continuing and pervasive subsidizing of our highway system, Onn? Are you insane? Do you really, REALLY think the pittance of a gas tax (federal and state) we have in this country is enough to provide for maintenance and expansion of our roads and highways? Come on now, this is just a ridiculous notion! We spend hundreds of billions every year on our roads and highways, yet other types of transit get perhaps a few percent of that figure in total. What's wrong with this picture? Aaron (Glowrock) |
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talk about ignorance! |
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"How can the government afford $200 million?" - it's spending $6 billion a month in Afghanistan, funding rail might not be as important but it's worth atleast 1/30 as much. |
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Here's a hint: Planes travel point to point. Trains don't. You dont just add LA-SF. You add: LA-SF LA-San Jose LA-Gilroy LA-Modesto LA-Fresno LA-Bakersfield LA-Palmdale LA-Anaheim LA-San Diego LA-Sacremnto etc And then you add San Jose-SF San Jose -LA San Jose-Gilroy San Jose-Modesto San Jose-Fresno San Jose-Bakersfield San Jose-Palmdale San Jose-Anaheim San Jose-San Diego San Jose-Sacramento And then you do this for every station paring, for flights, existing trains and cars. AND THEN you add in population growth, and on top of that, demand created by making cities "closer". Now how much fuel are you saving? Now whats your ridership? Edit: Apparently the article uses SFO-LAX numbers ONLY. He "forgot" to include Oakland, San Jose, Long Beach, Burbank and all the other airports and flights between the two cities. |
Also, if the writer of the article had done just two minutes of reaserch, he wouldnt have made idiotic statements like this:
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Because the accounting changed, from 2010 dollars to 2020 dollars. That's it. It's the exact same amount of money. It's like the way the lottery advertises $120million prize money.....but if you take cash it's $60 million. Why? Because the higher amount is 26 years away. |
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Is there a math wiz among us that can figure out the total cost of the Interstate system when adjusted for inflation?
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What infrastructure allows is for movement of people, goods and other things... all which makes money. They fall into the support role. Quote:
We try to put the same logic toward a different model and you obviously have to change the parameters. Trains (many of which use diesel fuel, and therefore should receive some of this gas tax... but anyway...). As you mentioned, however, trains foster denser tax-rich communities which should, in turn be able to support the cost of the infrastructure. You can't think of infrastructure in the same vein as a company that creates profit. It's different. |
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