Thanks for the responses, jonathan.jam, animatedmartian and hudkina.
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What’s also true is that our economy in the US will continue to weaken and our overall standard of living will decline and people are going to seek rentals more and more. People are going to want the flexibility that renting provides. One can get out of a lease a lot easier than they can get out of a mortgage and people do not want to be tied down to an area and not be able to move to better opportunities elsewhere if they exist and the lose their income locally. The SHTF will happen when interest rates start to rise to offset inflation due to weak dollar policies of the FED. Eventually market forces will make Detroit more attractive as the big three stabilize, the city finances stabilize by shaking legacy cost (probably via appointing an emergency manager) while the city offers some of the cheapest real estate prices to be had nationally. Detroit is an outstanding location and has outstanding “bones”. Eventually meat will be put back on those bones. I am not as confident in the specifics and the precise date this turnaround will manifest, but I am positive that the foundation of that turnaround is still being laid and that once its laid; Michigan and Detroit will be a relative winner among states going forward. |
This is one of the most interesting threads I've seen on this forum.
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"Eventually market forces will make Detroit more attractive when the big three stabilize".
Not if history is a guide. In the 50s and 60s the big three were making money hand over fist, the industry was booming, wahes skyrocketing, and they had complete command of the North American market. That, however, didn't stop the decline of Detroit. Detroit's population peaked at about 1950 and has fallen constistently ever since including huge decline in the 50s and 60s. Even if there is near full emploument that doesn't mean the city will begin to retore it's population growth or end the urban decay and violence. When people are employed in an area with dirt cheap housing they can live wherever they please. Downtown has to offer more than just a shorter commute to get people to move there. It requires a high quality of life where communities are stable, safe, attractive, offer good educational/health/social services. They want to live in places that make them be glad to be home again after a hard day's work..............Detroit does not offer any of these things. The only thing offers is a good arts and entertainment scene but people can get that by driving downtown when they want to take in a show/game/concert etc. A new streetcar line will not be near enough to entice people to move back and stay in inner city Detroit with other the other infrastructure and liveability that I mentioned. |
Much of the recovery will come down to this: the value of new buildings must be substantially higher than the cost to create them, and the related risks.
Currently this is true in some key locations, sometimes with subsidy, if the developer/investors are brave enough, and if costs are kept down. This ought to snowball in these neighborhoods, if other factors don't screw it up. As for the rest, if you buy a house for $40k and spend $80k upgrading it, will it be worth $150k? |
sort of off topic, but in the early part of Beverly Hills Cop there is some good footage of early 80s Detroit, including a badass victorian rowhouse strip behind a meadow. If you have netflix, it's worth watching the first 20 minutes of it just for that street footage (and the awesome car chase/smashup in the streets of Detroit).
http://bluraymedia.ign.com/bluray/im...534523-000.jpg http://bluraymedia.ign.com |
I agree with you completely ssiguy; Detroit will need more than just the Big Three being successful in order to make a true comeback. Most automotive-related jobs are factory-based, not corporate. Since many of the automakers' and related suppliers' factories are not in the city proper anymore, boosts in the auto industry won't see as much of an impact on the city as one might think.
Detroit needs an overall business revival, with corporations, firms, start-ups, foundations, trusts, etc. all moving back to the city. This has been starting to take place, but there is still along way to go. |
Nothing major will change in Detroit until the city can hire enough police to actually be effective and make people feel safe, same goes for fire department and EMS. It's one thing for a young professional to move DT and enjoy all it has to offer, but once they marry and have kids, there's no way they'll stay in the city, unless they feel safe and know that their kids can get a quality education in a safe school.
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The fortunes of the Detroit metro area are still somewhat tied to the health of the auto industry, but the city's future is no longer determined by the success of the Big 3. It hasn't been since the 70's. Chrysler and GM have about 7,000 people employed within the city of Detroit with most of those people commuting from the suburbs. That's insignificant. In fact there are more residents of the city of Detroit that work in the Casinos than work for the Big 3 in the city.
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If anyone is interested, there is a live chat on MLive at noon with emergency manger experts on what can be expected from an EM in Detroit. http://www.mlive.com/news/detroit/in....html#comments
On that note, and relation to north42's comment, I wonder if an EM would bring in a large Michigan State Police force to help supplement Detroit's Police Department, and what effect would that have? |
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One would hope so, but I really have no idea what would be possible if an EM is brought in. Hopefully when and if this happens, the changes will be substantial and effective. |
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Detroit has a very different spatial distribution than most metros. But, again, at a metro level, notwithsanding the rhetoric, if you look at the numbers, the issues are the same as in all the cities in this part of the country. And, as others have mentioned, the auto industry, and associated employment isn't in Detroit proper. Oakland County, and GM Tech in Macomb County, have the bulk of the white collar auto employment. For example, the Japanese live in Novi, because they work in Japanese supplier firms along the I-96 corridor. |
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I just spent 10 days in LA, never set foot downtown, and I consider myself an urbanist. LA is a fantastic city, yet its core is largely irrelevent to visitors. Nothing that defines the city is in or near downtown. Same goes for most cities in Latin America, Las Vegas, Orlando, Phoenix, even Miami. Many cities in Asia and Africa have similar spatial development patterns. Detroit is considered crappy because it has horrible slums, crime, and economic issues, not because it's decentralized. And downtown Detroit isn't the problem anyways. Downtown Detroit is fairly thriving, outperforming the region, and looks pretty decent. It's the rest of the city that's struggling mightily. |
Speaking of Downtown Detroit, a recent report came out about the statistics of Greater Downtown Detroit. To most who live and visit downtown, none of this is really surprising. Compared to other cities' downtowns, this is even less surprising.
But let me remind you, there are Metro Detroiters and even Michiganders and out of state residents who swore up and down that they'd never go into Detroit and are probably still unaware of what is going on now even after a decade thinking that there's really nothing positive in Detroit. Quote:
The full report here: http://www.detroitsevenpointtwo.com/...fullreport.pdf |
Perhaps Detroit city can drive a contiguous wedge of redevelopment/gentrification towards a/the favored suburban quarter from downtown like St. Louis is doing. It seems like it's having the effect of spreading out now as well from that favored "wedge." It seems like Detroit is set up vaguely like St. Louis with nodes of development (midtown, etc) having originally popped up in a sort of linear way away from downtown/ the river. It's also interesting that there is a Grand Blvd running parallel to the river and a diagonal Gratiot that kind of seems like our Gravois (and we also have a Gratiot).
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The new LRT line they are starting this year will hopefully facilitate redevelopment and gentrification of Woodward Ave from DT north, eventually to 8 Mile Rd and hopefully, into Oakland County and it's wealthy suburbs.
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