Largest Counties By Votes for Biden and Trump, 2020
 

This is the latest count according to the New York Times.

Counties with 1 Million+ Population

Voted for Biden:
84.5% New York, NY
82.5% Bronx, NY
81.0% Alameda, CA
80.9% Philadelphia, PA
77.5% Montgomery, MD
75.5% King, WA
74.1% Kings, NY
73.0% Santa Clara, CA
72.9% Cook, IL
72.9% Contra Costa, CA
72.6% Fulton, GA
71.4% Travis, TX
71.2% Middlesex, MA
71.1% Los Angeles, CA
70.6% Hennepin, MN
69.9% Fairfax, VA
69.0% Queens, NY
68.0% Wayne, MI
66.7% Mecklenburg, NC
66.5% Cuyahoga, OH
64.9% Dallas, TX
64.6% Franklin, OH
64.5% Broward, FL
64.1% Sacramento, CA
62.3% Wake, NC
60.3% San Diego, CA
59.3% Allegheny, PA
58.9% Pima, AZ
58.2% Bexar, TX
56.2% Oakland, MI
56.0% Palm Beach, FL
55.8% Harris, TX
54.6% Salt Lake City, UT
54.5% San Bernardino, CA
54.2% Riverside, CA
54.0% Clark, NV
53.6% Orange, CA
53.3% Miami-Dade, FL
52.7% Hillsborough, FL
50.2% Maricopa, AZ
49.3% Tarrant, TX

Voted for Trump:
55.5% Suffolk, NY
51.4% Collin, TX
50.1% Nassau, NY

Nassau will be Biden, and not particularly close. NY State has a large number of uncounted votes, overwhelmingly Dem.

But I can see Trump barely squeezing out Suffolk (the other, outer LI county). So Suffolk will probably be the most populous Trump county.

st. louis county was 61% biden. doesn’t include st. louis city which was 82%, and must not be over 1,000,000 anymore.

yeah, it's now fallen just below that threshold after poking above it in census 2000.

it was 998,954 in 2010, and is now estimated to be 994,205, so pretty damn close.


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i posted the data below in the election thread in CE, but that thread is primarily a cesspool of axe-grinding stupidity, so we can probably have a more interesting discussion here, as long as people keep this STRICTLY about data without the usual BS.



Cook county (chicago + inner burbs) is solidly blue, downstate is solidly red, and they kind of counterbalance each other.

The four main chicagoland collar counties of dupage, lake, will, and kane are where the tipping point usually occurs.

Cook county is far and away the largest county in illinois (5.2M people), but the 4 main collar counties are numbers 2 - 5 in illinois, and together total around 2.8M people.

A generation or two ago they were typically republican strongholds ("the dems might have cook, but we've got 'em by the collars"), but now???


Check this out:

Lake County (696,535 people): +20 biden
Dupage County (922,921 people): +18 biden*
Kane County (532,403 people): +14 biden
Will County (690,743 people): +8 biden

And all of them got bluer vs. 2016

And the vast bulk of downstate got redder (outside of a handful of college town counties)

illinois' two worlds keep drifting ever further away from each other.



(*) from 1916 - 2004, dupage county had gone republican in every single presidential election. hometown hero obama finally flipped it twice in 2008 & 2012, and hillary (who was born and raised in chicagoland) also won it in 2016, but biden is the 1st non-republican candidate without any illinois ties to win dupage county in over a century, and by 18 freaking points, no less!

i did a double take when i saw nassau county shaded ever so slightly red on the results map. i was like "that can't be right. can it?"



and what's up with staten island?

+24 for trump!?!?!?!?

SI is shocking. SI is about 1/3 nonwhite, too. And few Orthodox Jews. And half the borough has a very liberal city nonwhite councilmember, who gets easily reelected.

SI is probably the most Italian and Russian/former Soviet County in the U.S. Those demographics, almost certainly, went massively for Trump.

I suspect NYT will have census tract level data shortly, so we'll see. The southern shoreline of SI, along Hylan Blvd., is the most Italian-Russian corridor, so that corridor should be deep red.

theres actually not that much to staten island. especially in comparison to the other boros. its like a repub suburb thats all.

A lot of NYPD lives there, as well as ethnicities that skew Republican. There was a very contentious house race for a district that covers southern Brooklyn and SI. Last I checked, the margin was similar in favor of the Republican challenger.

I've been nerdily clicking through state/county election maps over the past week now, and this data provide is really a telling display of the situation around the larger urban locations (which have "collar" counties) in our country.

And what I find fascinating is that, in general, in the smaller and small metro areas, the pattern is remarkably the same... just on smaller scale, and showing the voting pattern differences within the metro's main county... meaning the city and near suburban precincts solidly blue, then getting more purple as you move away from the core, and then of course, solidly red (all within the same county).

Which is why looking just at county-level data, and assigning blue or red, isn't all that informative in smaller metros, especially when only 1,000 votes or less very often determine its red or blue classification.

Yeah, I noted Staten Island on the maps, as well.

What the hell is with Italian-Americans' voting preferences anyway? And how is it still that strong of characteristic of an ethnic immigrant group that has been here for a very long time. What is with that right wingy attitude?

I see it emerging among many friends who I grew up with, and who now seem to be turning into their grandfathers... it's like they love that Mussolini shit or something.

I'm half expecting them to start wearing velour track suits, big glasses, and velcro shoes and start hanging out playing barbut and eating tripe together.

Anyway, not trying to sidetrack it, but it would be very interesting to see the voting data in cities broken down by ethnic origin... like is there still consistency within immigrant groups who came to the US well over a century ago?

not being italian american., i don't understand it either, but my wife is 100% italian american and has deep italian roots here in chicago (she even has some mafia second cousins who've been whacked or done time in prison, but no direct contact with that "wing" of her family anymore), with a bunch of aunts, uncles and cousins who all live in the southwest burbs (palos/orland area), and from those whose politics i know, they're all aboard the trump train.

my wife is 100% the opposite of that, but i believe she's also the only person of her extended family still living within city limits. she had a few older hold-out relatives down in little italy/bridgeport years ago, but they've now passed on.

There's a likely distinction among Italian-American voters, though.

SI Italians are of relatively recent stock. They immigrated in the postwar decades, from Sicily and Calabria, mostly. They aren't the same as random Italian-Americans in South Florida or Central Jersey, who hail from the huge prewar European migration waves.

But, yeah, Italian and Russian-Ukranian immigrants/children of immigrants to the NY area are very, very Trumpist. Like rural Alabama-level Trumpist. And not particularly GOP (most of these areas have solid Dem representation at state/local level).

There's a certain machismo to Italian-North American culture that may leave it susceptible to right wing populist "strongmen" leaders. It's probably for that same reason that Trump performed better than expected amongst Latinos as well.

Though I'm not sure how well that maps out onto Italian-Canadians (which are mostly post-war immigrants, and seem to be a bit less region-specific than the Sicilian-origin that dominates the US). My own family is very left-leaning, and in the GTA at least, Italians are pretty heavily tied into the Liberal political machine. Most older Italians can be expected to reliably vote for the same Italian Liberal candidates that they've been voting in for decades, but perhaps the younger generations would be more open to supporting a populist conservative though, should one ever materialize.

New York State as a whole is still 18% out, and what's out (absentees) skew heavily, heavily D, so you can't draw any conclusions whatsoever about turnout or vote shifts in any of the counties yet.

When the dust is settled, it's likely the only states that shifted towards Trump in 2020 were Florida, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Hawaii.

Also where are these county-level maps & data that are being spoken of?

Did Italian-Canadians generally support Rob Ford? I get that he isn't directly analogous to Trumpism, but wondering if there was some Italian-Canadian affinity for his "strongman" populist tendencies?

The LA Times usually puts out a Dems vs. Repubs interactive map during Presidential elections, showing each precinct. I usually have to go to other sources to see how ALL political parties fared. This year I voted for Gloria La Riva, who was representing the Peace and Freedom Party in California.

Here's LA, Orange and San Diego Counties. As you can see, the northern half of LA County (mainly the Antelope Valley) is reddish, while the rest is blueish. There are pockets of Trump supporters in wealthy LA County areas, like La Habra Heights and the Palos Verdes Peninsula (Rolling Hills). Most notably, parts of Beverly Hills also have Trump supporters; Beverly Hills is usually considered a Democrat Party area.

https://www.latimes.com/projects/tru...ts-california/

Right, the way NY State runs absentee balloting, the 18% remainder will be overwhelmingly (like almost entirely) Dem. NY State, overall, will have shifted more blue than in 2016.

So all these margins will change substantially, but the trends are still interesting, IMO. Trump will still have won SI by a comfortable margin.

I must say that generally, the Palos Verdes Peninsula tends to vote Republican, but I think this election was more about getting Trump out of office, for a lot of people.

Bev Hills is very Persian Jewish.

Great Neck, the NY's area's Persian Jewish enclave, is Trumpist, so likely the same trend. And Great Neck is very Dem, but Trumpist.

this is not true at all. italian immigrants came to the lower states from all over it-lee, majority mezzogiorno, but not just sicily. more:

From the late 19th century until the 1930s, the United States was a main destination for Italian immigrants, with most first settling in the New York metropolitan area, but with other major Italian American communities developing in Boston, Philadelphia, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, San Francisco, and New Orleans. Most Italian immigrants to the United States came from the Southern regions of Italy, namely Campania, Apulia, Basilicata, Calabria, and Sicily. Many of them coming to America were also small landowners.[4] Italian Americans are known for their tight-knit communities and ethnic pride, and have been highly influential in the development of modern U.S. culture, particularly in the Northeastern region of the country. Italian American communities have often been depicted in U.S. film and television, with distinct Italian-influenced dialects of English prominently spoken by many characters. Although many do not speak Italian fluently, over a million still speak Italian at home, according to the 2000 US Census.