I get the feeling there's also a lot of hidden PC support here.

Another interesting factoid: the only time in history where Alberta had more NDP MLAs than Saskatchewan was the short period in 1986 between the Alberta general election in May (where they shot up from 2 to 16 seats) and the Saskatchewan election in October (where they also went up, from 8 to 25). This includes going back to the CCF days up to the present.

If Notley wins ten seats on May 5th, then they will once again have more MLAs in Alberta than Saskatchewan.

With another election expected in Saskatchewan either late this year or early next, we will have to wait and see if they can't overtake the Alberta NDP again like they did in 1986.

My guess is that they won't be able to best Notley though.

So I'm going out on a limb, having been accused of poli-sci 101. And I'm not good at math and I'm, although not bright, I'm not obtuse.
IMO, we have a governing party that is imploding internally through rot. Not surprising, given the length of term. I believe any party with that length of term would suffer the same. Still, internal rot, it doesn't know what it wants to be. Since Klein, it's thrown all subsequent premiers to the wolves. No wonder the progressive vote has abandoned the governing party having saved its ass in 2012 and are then subsequently rejected. So, they're left with an inner establishment core that is rejected by progressives and conservatives. Big trouble!

Yah NDP in Alberta is much more centrist than other provinces. so those that are doom and glooming I have no patents for. WR will be slash and burn Kienonomics. PC are tired and the othere parties are dead. that said My PC MLA is good so it will be hard to figure out my vote. however the WR candidate has lost it for me again like she did when she ran for mayor. Pretty much Danny and Redford rolled in one.


Also if NDP do come out of this stronger it will not equate into federal seats. Alberta will stay PC Federally with maybe one NDP and an Liberal to add spice.

I think, if the NDP are really so far ahead, whoever is leading the right (i.e. the higher of PC or WR) will start to coalesce support.

Are there any polls that show how well liked each party leader is? That is a huge key to what will happen on election night.

When looking at polls from the final campaign week in 2012, the PCs had about 31-36% support. Right now they have 20-26%.

The WR in 2012 had 38-41%. Right now they have 25-35%.

The NDP in 2012 had 11-13%. Right now they have 30-38%.

I won't mention the other parties as their percentages are low.

If we believe in the polls then the WR hasn't made any gains since the last election. The NDP obviously has gained, no doubt about it. The PC's support has fallen but are their polling numbers actually true? That is where I have my doubts. I mentioned earlier in this thread about "uncool" and often incumbent parties being badly under-represented in polls. The PCs were "supposed" to lose last time. I agree that they have lost support but not as much as the polls suggest. It may only be a minority win but I believe they will win unless the NDP somehow wins a number of rural seats and quite a few in Calgary due to vote splitting with PC and WR.

Not backing export pipelines is restricting market access.

You go play with your numbers. People here are talking policy and economics.

I could see a coalition under certain specific circumstances.

Imagine this result:

NDP: 32
PC: 26
WR: 26
Lib: 3

With PCs and WRs essentially tied and a slim NDP plurality, I couldn't see an NDP budget passing or either conservative party supporting the other without active engagement in the process. Here a unite the right movement would look really attractive.

Or this one:

NDP: 43
WR: whatever
PC: whatever
Lib/AP/GP: Blakeman

Hey, if you're running for three parties why not add a fourth post election? Basically a near NDP majority might form a coalition with other parties if they demand it in return for support.

Else wise, yeah I don't see it happening.

Ekos:

NDP 39.6%
PC 23%
WR 23%
ALP 6.7%
ABNDP 4.6%

Poll to be released tomorrow.

Well Malcolm, EKOS is reputable...

Some of these profiles would be funny if they weren't so sad:
http://www.albertandp.ca/candidates

It's not that regressive (doesn't affect food and rent, nor second-hand goods). I think you could make an argument that fuel taxes are more regressive, as they have an impact on the price of food and other basic transported goods even for the very poorest.

One nice thing as well about sales taxes is that they're less easy to escape for the super-rich and corporations who can be fiscally creative and based in other places for fiscal purposes.

I will still stand by my comment that from an outside POV it's indeed quite weird / unusual to have "leftists" vehemently opposed to the slightest sales tax. Generally, the countries these same people will tend to cite as models (the Scandinavian ones, for example)... all have high sales taxes. I even have to put leftists in quotation marks there, that's how strange the idea of anti-taxation leftists is. :P

I know that they might have to bail a candidate out of jail if he ends up winning his riding...

(Did they end up replacing that guy or not?)

This is Alberta though. Any mention of a provincial sales tax is a death knell for any party wanting to be elected. We're spoiled and expect everything for nothing.

Firstly, the NDP essentially continues to espouse that it is a "social democrat" poli party. In that vein, the NDP in Canada always points to "social democrat" Europe and its social programs.

In social democrat Europe,the VAT rates (GST + PST) are between 20% and 25%. Now that is brutal. But social democratic European parties not only do not consider same "regressive" but support 'em. In order to fund their social safety net.

Even in NDP-governed Manitoba, the corporate tax rate is basically the same as in BC. After the last MB election, with fiscal pressures, the MB NDP gov't didn't raise corporate taxes. Rather, they increased the PST rate by 1% to the consumer.

Both the Roy Romanow Saskatchewan NDP govt's and the Gary Doer Manitoba NDP govt's were considered to be "third way" or "Blairite". Many basically considered them "orange" Liberal govt's.

The SK Romanow gov't ran austerity budgets, closed many rural hospitals, and even sold off crown corp.s such as the remaining shares in Potash Corp. in order to balance the budget.

The MB Doer gov't lowered corporate taxes to basically the same level as BC, for example. Not the "traditional" NDP many perceive.

OTOH, the BC NDP is considered to be the most left-wing in Canada by even its own members. And frankly, they are not electable.

After reading "between the lines" of the AB NDP I get a good sense that they are a hybrid version of both the BC NDP and the SK/MB NDP.

As I have posted earlier herein, the pollsters from the 2012 AB election have basically "abandoned ship" in this round.

The only purported "pollsters" in AB this time have never done any public opinion polling in AB and the fallout could be potentially could be worse (as I suspect) than what happened in 2012.

In that vein, I wanna give an example. The May, 2013 BC election campaign. Ipsos Reid and Angus Reid were regularly releasing polls throughout the campaign showing the BC NDP with double-digit leads over the BC Libs. (opt-in online pollsters). Other pollsters, such as Ekos (IVR), also chimed in showing the BC NDP leading by up to 22%.

Ipsos Reid and Angus Reid released public opinion polls on Monday - the day before e-day on the following Tuesday. Both corroborated a 9% BC NDP lead, which would have meant 50 - 60/85 BC seats. A BC NDP landslide.

Why is the foregoing relevant? Because it all turned out to be cheap polling junk at the end of the day.

OTOH, let's look at the BC Libs internal polling (much released after the 2013 election). The BC Libs used very expensive CATI polling internally (inclusive of Indo and Chinese interviewers). The BC Libs spent ~$500,000 for same IIRC and did the following:

1. Nightly CATI polling of 25 swing ridings;

2. Nigthly BC CATI tracking poll of female voting intentions;

3. Nightly BC CATI tracking poll of 55+ age demographic; (Important because this demographic votes at twice the rate of the 18-24 year old demographic, for example;

On the Friday, before e-day on the following Tuesday, the BC Lib's internal pollster sent an e-mail to a small segment in the BC Lib upper echelon which stated "Bingo... we have 50 seats". And yes, on the following Tuesday the BC Libs won 50 seats. (After a later recount, the BC NDP retained one by a razor slim margin).

Put that in the context of Ipsos Reid and Angus Reid showing the BC NDP with a 9% lead three days later.

Public opinion polls these days are just cheap polling junk. I cannot stress that fact enough. Caveat emptor!

As an aside, with these purported polls showing an NDP "lead" in AB, that could potentially increase voter turnout by those who may be spooked by the concept of an AB NDP gov't.

To paraphrase Yogi Berra.. "It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings".

Gotta disagree! In BC, Ekos had the BC NDP leading by double digits during the 2013 campaign! Even last month Ekos had the federal Greens at 20% in Manitoba. I can go on and on. Again, just cheap IVR polling junk. Frank Graves is well known for same.

EKOS is a reputable polling firm. That doesn't mean that they're right, everyone is having trouble with caller ID and the fall of land lines, but it means something in the context of complaints about most of the polling being done by unheard of election services outfits with no track record in the province.

Tomorrow will also see the release of an Ipsos poll and a Return on Insight poll for CBC. So more polling by traditional firms is on the way. The last Mainstreet poll will also be released Friday.

As for consumption taxes. I'm not personally attacking them, just mentioning that there is a long standing leftist critique. This isn't refutable. The left in NA is allowed to have different ideas about funding the state from Europe.

Sorry. But these firms are not "reputable". At all. If ya know anything about public opinion polling these days. Seriously.

Perhaps "reputable" against the 3rd line stringers that have been polling in AB including Mainstreet and Return on Insight, which had bizarre numbers in AB 2012.

As for Ekos and its bizarre BC polling results during the 2013 BC election, I still recall Frank Graves for his comedic/bizarre explanation:

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.ph...lling-debacle/

PS. Very expensive CATI polling includes both land lines as well as cell phones as well as numerous callbacks in order to obtain a representative and statistically significant sample.

Good post (I had missed it the first time)... As an environmentally conscious consumer, I also really like the fact that it gives an edge to existing, used items (bought from other people who don't need/want them anymore, on sites like kijiji or yard sales, etc.) over buying new shit.

FWIW, basically everyone I know who are left-of-center are viewing over-consumption of superfluous goods as something that we should try to be curbing, not favoring. Those goods are among the most logical targets for extra taxing if you're enviro-minded and don't mind "slowing down the economy" / reducing the rate at which humanity's depleting the resources of our planet.